With election season starting to heat up and campaigns co-coordinating their attack plan, the race for the U.S. Senate in California is on fire. With polling data conducted by The Field Research Corporation for the GOP primary and released on Thursday, the Republican campaigns fighting to unseat three term Sen. Barbara Boxer began their attacks on each other after the hard data began to circulate. The Field Poll, conducted from January 5 and 17,2010, lists voter preferences in the 2010 GOP primary among likely voters in the primary.
According to the poll, Tom Campbell is the most preferred candidate in the primary receiving 30% of the vote among likely voters, Carly Fiorna, ex HP CEO, received 25%, and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore rounded out the field with 6%. An interesting thing to note about this poll is that Campbell was a candidate for Governor until he switched to running for the U.S. Senate last week.
If the November election were held today, all GOP candidates would lose to incumbent Boxer. However both DeVore and Fiorina have made gains against Boxer. Fiorina has climbed ten points since last March in voter preferences, up from 25%, and DeVore gained a point since October 2009, both with an additional well known candidate in the race. Campbell has recorded the highest percentage of voter preference against Boxer with 38%just ten points shy of Boxer’s 48%. A point of note among the data is that undecided voters make up 15% likely voters when the choice is made between Boxer and a Republican candidate.
According to the Field Poll, Campbell has a larger lead among likely voters in the Republican primary in Northern California, those who consider themselves moderately conservative and those aged 65 or older. Fiorina gets 30% of likely male voters and 29%, one more percentage point then Campbell, of voters aged 18-64. Assemblyman Devore posts just half of 1% when polled amongst likely voters aged 65 or older and just 2% of likely voters among Northern California. Positive news for DeVore , and indeed for all candidates is that the undecided are a large portion of likely voters based on region, political ideology, gender, and age.
The campaigns are not fettered by these numbers and some suggest that the recent polling suggests strength in their campaign. Deputy Campaign Manager For Communications for Carly Fiorina’s campaign Julie Soderlund issued a statement after the release of the poll:
“ We continue to be encouraged by the polling in this race, which shows that Carly is a strong candidate both in the primary and in the general election and that voters are highly dissatisfied with Barbara Boxer’s continued support for bigger government and higher taxes.”
The Campbell campaign also had comments, as issued from a press release sent by James Fisfis, a representative of Campbell for U.S. Senate:
“We can conclude that prior to Cambell’s entrance, there was clearly a hunger for a true fiscally conservative standard-bearer who can focus the debate on Senator Barbara Boxer’s failure as a steward of the California taxpayer’s money.”
The Devore campaign said the polling data was a mix of good news and bad news. Leisa Brug Kline, DeVore for California campaign director, said:
"Some polls are good news, and some are bad news. If reports on the content of this Field Poll are accurate, this one is a bit of both. The bad news is easy to identify: we've got a lot of work to do introducing Chuck DeVore to California's Republicans. It's January, and we will. The good news is that this data shows what's been shown in poll after poll for months: that Chuck DeVore has just as good a shot at Barbara Boxer as anyone.”
See the poll at Field Research Corporation
Visit the DeVore Campaign here
Visit the Fiorina Campaign here
Visit the Campbell Campaign here.
Visit the official website for Sen. Barbara Boxer here
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