The Weekly Standard reported yesterday that the New York Times conducted a poll showing that the republicans are favored to take control of the US Senate this November. The democrats currently hold 53 seats in the senate, 55 if you count independents and socialists who caucus with them. The poll indicates that republicans lead in eight races where the seat is currently held by the democrats.
The Times gives the GOP a 60 percent chance of winning the senate, which is huge considering the source. The left wing publication did try to minimize the polling data, by following it with a piece that tried to placate their readership. Though most polls show republicans to be favored this year, the numbers are lower than in 2010 when the GOP won several seats.
There are a total of 36 seats up for grabs in 34 states. Some are considered safe for the incumbent, as it seems unlikely that a democrat will win in a state like Kansas or that a republican will win in Illinois. Muddying the waters are a few three-way races in several states, though voters still have been unwilling to learn the lesson that voting for a third party candidate is less of a wasted vote than one for the status quo parties.
2010 is widely regarded as a landslide winning year for republicans, though the following presidential election saw President Obama’s reelection. The so-called “landslide” for the GOP that year saw the retention of over 80 percent of the members of both houses. In other words, real change will never happen until the two party system is broken.
There are several smaller issues at hand, however. If the GOP were to take control of the Senate and retain control of the House, the biggest difference would be that the president could now blame both houses in addition to the previous president for his blunders and inability to move as quickly as he’d like on certain issues. Also, there would totally be a budget bill passed without the hullabaloo that it has entailed during the past few years.
Realistically, the only major difference with a GOP controlled senate versus a democrat controlled one would be what nominees to certain courts and posts Obama could get through. Other than that, it would likely be nothing more than business as usual.