We have discussed youth rage and other intangible reasons for the unrest in North Africa and the Middle-East. Given some of the push back that I received I decided to take another look to see if we could further isolate the sources of the unrest.
To analyze the problem I looked at jobless rates and food costs to see if there are any generalities that can be drawn.
If we postulate that a high unemployment rate, low GDP per capita and high food cost would be prime conditions for unrest, this surely explains the problem in Yemen, but not in Bahrain. Libya seems to be the exception that proves something:
- Better than many per capita income
- Fairly high unemployment rate , but
- Relatively low food cost.
Saudi Arabia’s relative peacefulness is easily explained by the per capita income and somewhat low unemployment rate. It should be noted that the Saudi unemployment rate would be much lower if Saudis performed some of the menial jobs that they employ expatriates to perform. This fuller employment might create more of a work ethic and self satisfaction.
Algeria’s high cost of food was reported to be one of the critical sources of unrest. The high unemployment and cost of food contribute to its unrest. But is it all of the cause? Probably not.
Egypt’s very low per capita income and higher food prices contributed greatly to the unrest. However, there are obviously other factors:
- Shiite versus Shia in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain
- Corruption in Egypt
- Political aspirations in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt
- Iranian involvement indirectly with Hamas and Hezbollah in at least Jordan, Yemen, Egypt and Bahrain
- Religious fervor in Yemen
To generalize from the above we can conclude that each country has its own source of frustration. A frustration that is being suppressed by force, but often returns when the force resides.
When one considers the approach advocated by the Saudis of peaceful engagement and gradual power sharing he can envision a gradual reduction of unrest, but it will only last if per capita income can increase, food costs can be reduced and employment increased. This is a tall order for the following reasons:
- Political turmoil does not create conditions that encourage investment to create jobs
- High paying jobs require skill sets that are not being produced by the schools
- Food costs are increasing world wide and may be a source of turbulence somewhere else.
What is truly required is a gradualism approach, which the above noted frustration will no allow.
What do you think?
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