This is the race gamblers live for, the wide open bettor’s race; deep evenly matched fields. These are the races that make your multi race payouts. A wide open betting race is great for multi race tickets because it stretches the parimutuel pools out.
In other words, if you put your newfound handicapping skills to good use by knowing which race to key a horse, (see part II keying favorites) and knowing which race to throw the favorites out (see part I) you can afford to go deeper in this race and still be alive while a large percentage of the pool has been eliminated.
This strategy is the fundamental truth of parimutuel wagering; you’re not trying to pick the most logical winner as much as you are trying to beat the other bettors. So instead of thinking “I want to hit the pick four today”, try thinking, “after the first two races I want 70% of the pool to be knocked out.” Although this strategy may lead to some frustration in the short term, in the long term, with a Zen like calm and stability, big payoffs will be there.
So what does a good betting race look like? You ask. Well here is an example.
On December 31st, the 10th race at Gulfstream Park was a ‘good betting race,’ an 80k OC/N3X on the turf at a mile and a 16th. The race consisted of three horses dropping from Grades stakes; five coming off allowance/claiming races, and two out of overnight stakes.
Another factor is the relation of the race to where it is in the meet. Generally early in a meet, allowance and optional claiming races are preps for stakes races later on. A good trainer may want to put their horse in a race to gauge where they are in their form cycle. From there they can know if they move them up into a stakes race or not.
So the next logical step in this handicapping puzzle is to see the last time each horse has run, and how many races have they run since their last layoff.
For example trainer Michael Trombetta, had an improving four year old, (Bad Debt) who had run in 10 races in 2011 and 15 in 2010, an ambitious schedule. He’s had a strong year with six wins and four places, most of which were lower level races at Parx. The last race was a win in a restricted race for Florida breds at Calder, in early November. Needless to say a short rest was much deserved, the question remains, does he improve off the rest, or does he need this race to stretch out his legs and get back into form.
Mata Keranjang is also a good four year old coming off a layoff. His last two races were Grade 3 events where he ran an honest forth in both. Kiaran Mclauglin is taking blinkers off, and putting Elvis Trujillo back on. Trujillo is a great jockey who rides exceptionally well at Monmouth and Gulfstream, he’s also very good at putting a horse on the front end, and dictating the pace of the race. Coming out of the two post Trujillo knew that if he got his horse on the lead around the first turn and save ground, the race was his to win.
Mata Keranjang wired the twelve horse field, at odds of 7.50-1 for a $17.00 win pay out. Bad Debt, fresh off his layoff sat chilly in second, ran a strong race to hold for place. The exacta came back a healthy $110.40. More importantly 7.5-1 was the longest price of the pick 4/5 sequence, a sequence that paid $6,871.20 for .50 in the pick 5 and $1,547.50 for $1 in the pick 4.
*Part IV will be this Saturday, where I will attempt to put my money where my mouth is, and handicap a pick 4 at Gulfstream Park. There are two stakes races on the bill; G3 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes, featuring Little Mike, and Teaks North. The Grade 3 Hal’s Hope, with Jackson Bend and Mucho Macho Man.
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