Two weeks following the initial report of the discovery of what would have been the first possibly-habitable extrasolar planet in the universe, attempts to confirm the find have failed, and the entire story is now in doubt.
The first report came from Jack Philips of the Epoch Times. Francesco Pepe, an astronomer at the Geneva Observatory, examined 6.5 years' worth of data from the High-Accuracy Radial-velocity Planetary Searcher (HARPS) spectrometer on the 3.6-meter telescope at the European Southern Observatory in Chile. He found no evidence for a "planet g" in the Gliese 581 system. He found ample evidence for the other four planets in that system, designated b, c, d, and e. He published his findings in the journal Astrobiology on Tuesday.
Following that report came other reports yesterday and today, in the National Post (Canada), the Hindustan Times, the Daily Mail (London, UK), Space.com, and Wooeb News. The latest report is this analysis in Discovery News, that finds reason essentially to wait and see. Stephen Vogt, who claimed to have discovered planet g, stands by his find. He based his claim on an cross-correlation of HARPS data with data from the HIgh-Resolution Echelle Spectrometer (HIRSE) at the Keck Observatory in Hawaii (which has 10-meter telescopes).
The problem: even instruments like HARPS and HIRSE cannot resolve an image of a 20-light-year-distant star to see a planet-sized object in orbit around it. Astronomers infer the existence of extrasolar planets, or "exoplanets," from the very slight movements that the star in question makes as its planet(s) orbit it. (Primaries do not remain at rest when something orbits them; the barycenter, or actual center of mass, of any primary/orbiter system is always separate from the center of the primary by a slight but significant amount.) Gas-giant-sized exoplanets are difficult enough to detect. But Gliese 581 g, if it exists, is an Earth-sized world, one considerably smaller. Dr. Pepe explained the sitaution with planet g thus:
The reason for that is that, despite the extreme accuracy of the instrument and the many data points, the signal amplitude of this potential fifth planet is very low and basically at the level of the measurement noise.
Signal-to-noise ratio, a concept invented with radar, is something every investigator learns to appreciate. Pepe is saying, in effect, not that planet g is definitely not present but that it is undetectable. That Vogt stands by his original findings might be because he cross-correlated the HARPS and HIRSE data, a thing that Pepe did not do. The question remains whether such cross-correlation between and among very weak signals might produce a false positive, essentially a form of "derived noise." Tellingly, Vogt is on record as admitting that his signals were "small," that is, had low signal-to-noise ratios.
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Comments
This of course has no bearing on the possibility of other planets residing in the habitable zones of other star systems. Also, just as there are objects in our solar system which may possibly have life despite not residing in the "Goldilocks Zone", it is also still possible (though less likely) that the Gliese system may still harbour life (whether it occurred naturally or if GODDIDIT WITH MAGIC).
fox news=illuminati dont buy this fake alien stuff
This article is not a whole lot more than wishful thinking on the part of the author. Nothing is actually stated other than "it might not be true". The data is stronger than the author states, and object is NOT earth sized. It is approximately 3 times the earth in mass.
"Signal-to-noise ratio, a concept invented with radar..."
No. Noise is a problem inherent in amplification circuitry, which took shape in 1907-1915. Before the end of WWI (1918), electronic amplifiers were in widespread use in telephone circuitry, and later made possible the radio circuitry of the 1920s. Noise was a problem from the very beginning, as both alternating current, and the diodes used to rectify it into DC, create very audible noise in tube circuits.
By the time the first thing resembling a working radar system was invented in 1934, the whole topic was old hat.
I find the accuracy of the rest of the article to be similar.
This is a fine example of the slipshod method that Terry uses in his scientific reportage. In Terry's view S/N ratio was invented by scientists, not just a measurement of a physical phenomena. Terry habitually misconstrues these concepts to somehow diminish science.
As far as the Gliese 581g. It appears that the science that predicts it's existence may need to be fine-tuned.
What is crystal clear is that SCIENCE and the SCIENTIFIC METHOD is working exactly as it should, with peers reviewing and questioning evidence.
No scientists is disputing it's existence because of superstition or a misreading of the bible.
If someday science confirms it's existence, Terry will confirm this with the appropriate creationist ministries, which will vow they predicted it.
Interesting...becaue the original release of the discovery from Voght's team included a notation that he included over 11 years of observations with the HARP published Radial velocity data in order to get the number of data points he needed for the discovery. This new information from HARP only included 6.5 years of data, which in my mind, casts a lot of doubt about his confirmation process. Anyway folks, in the very near future, we are going to hear from the Kepler people, and they are looking at over 700 additional prospects for these kinds of habital zone planets, you can't debunk them all, it's going to happen, like it or not....we are not alone !!!
I find the logic/illogic of the comment "we are not alone" rather disconserting. There is an assumption (that there is 'something/someone' 'out there' and then it is asserted by way of affirming that there are 'many more of these planets in these zones as 'proof')
A healthy agnosticism is important in this and many other matters in which we do not have enough information to make a conclusion.
Very interesting Terry,
I wonder why these people who don't agree with you want to remain anonymous?
Because the comments system here is Terrible! You probably don't see it because you have an account. we can't make accounts.
-BathTub
I would place money that if they do find water on another planet Terry will claim it's from Noah's flood.
And Judy would find that interesting.
Meanwhile we wait for interesting stuff.
The general public should be more skeptical of these types of 'discoveries', and the media is part of the problem why they are not.
My views on "Why the Public should be skeptical about the newly found ‘Earth-like’ planet Gliese 581 G" may be too long to post here, but can be found at http://bit.ly/aXxzOV (my wordpress blog) or http://bit.ly/aT6yuq (my tumblr blog).
An excerpt: “Now, I am someone who supports scientific discovery, and I’m not saying that I think the scientific community is wrong about the Gliese 581G planet. What I am saying is that the general public should not automatically accept as fact what the scientific community presents to them, without being made aware of the basis from which the scientific community is making these assumptions. And the Media has a responsibility to not just automatically sensationalize what the scientific community tells them, but to research the processes that were used in making these discoveries and effectively communicate that information to the general public.”
Thanks -H.E.Miller
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