The 2013 awards season is really unlike any other, at least since before the days of the blogosphere, in that the Academy voting isn't as influenced by the Guild awards, thanks to an early nomination ballot due date. I'm still unsure how the final voting will be effected. Those ballots aren't due until February 19.
The Producers Guild Awards took place last weekend and Argo was awarded Best Picture, solidifying itself as the frontunner for the Best Picture award. In any other year, this would seal the deal for Argo to win Best Picture on Oscar night, however, I still remain unconvinced.
PGA Winner & Oscar Best Picture match 74%
- PGA & Best Picture have matched for the last 5 years. However, those were normal years when the Academy allowed themselves to be influenced by the Guilds.
- for the 3 years before that, the PGA & Best Picture did not match. 1 of those years (2005) there was the rare director/picture split. Ang Lee won Best Director and was the favorite for Picture, but lost to Crash. Ang Lee is nominated for Life of Pi for directing.
Based on these stats, it would be logical to go with Argo to win Best Picture, but I will hold out for the Directors Guild winner. And even then, I still may not be ready to concede.