75% of the PGA nominees are also nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture. In the last 3 years (10 PGA nominees each), 80% of the PGA nominees were nominated for Best Picture.
There’s no way to know the exact number of films the Academy will nominate and I will assume that it will be greater than 5, but less than 10 and not equal to either.
Going by the 75% rule, we would have to assume that 7 or 8 PGA nominees will be nominated for Oscar. However, we cannot rule out the inevitable 1 or 2 films nominated for Best Picture that did not receive a PGA nomination. Therefore, we could be looking at 9 nominees.
- 7-8 films from PGA
- 1-2 films not nominated for PGA
…so here’s how I see it. I see 5 sure-fire nominees:
Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook, Argo, Les Miserables & Lincoln.
Life of Pi and Django Unchained will round at the top 7.
If there are 8 from PGA, then I see Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild fighting it out for that token Indie spot, making it 8.
Skyfall will not be nominated, even though the Academy loves them some Sam Mendes and as well they should!
Look out for The Master to process late and Flight to swoop in. Be prepared for The Impossible to rise out of the depths and make a big splash. Also, in case it happens, Amour.
Best Picture nominees based on PGA stats
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
if 6) Django Unchained
if 7) Life of Pi
if 8) Beasts of the Southern Wild
if 9) The Master
if 10) The Impossible