PFSE official Edgar-Penn 2 prediction

For the second UFC pay per view in a row the main event will feature one of the “best mixed martial artists in the world” who also happens to have some motivation issues. I don’t think anyone who would argue that when motivated BJ Penn (15-6-1) isn’t one of the most talented and most dangerous mixed martial artists in the world – but like Anderson Silva he’s been so up and down recently that it’s tough to feel confident that the BJ Penn we’ll see on Saturday night will be the very best BJ Penn.

What we do know is that Frankie Edgar (12-1) already has a victory over the Hawaiian superstar. In one of the biggest upsets in the history of the sport, 8-1 underdog Edgar used a great game plan to outpoint and outperform the UFC lightweight champion (at the time) at UFC 112. At the time Penn told everyone that Edgar fought a better fight to take the championship, but after awhile it started to trickle out that Penn may have been sick and suddenly it seemed like BJ Penn might be lining up the excuse train to cover up for a lack of motivation against a fighter he anticipated to be inferior to him. The biggest problem for the UFC is that they had two of their most talented fighters on the UFC 112 card and both of them underperformed in a major way. Silva got some redemption with his gut check victory over Chael Sonnen at UFC 117, now it’s Penn’s chance to prove something.

In the rematch I anticipate seeing a more focused Penn. BJ has taken a lot of crap for his UFC 112 performance and if that doesn’t motivate him to prove to people that he truly is worth the hype then I’m not sure it’s possible to get through to Penn. Unfortunately for the viewing audience I’m not sure the Penn-Edgar rematch is going to be “must see TV.” It’s an intriguing fight to be sure, because everyone wants to know if Edgar can reclaim some of the magic that led to his title victory in UFC 112. For Edgar to win he’s going to need to hit and move, keep distance from Penn, rack up points and essentially bore the crowd into a decision victory.

Penn on the other hand will want to light the fireworks. I think Penn is too good on his feet, on his back, on top, in the submission game, striking, and with defense. The key will be whether or not Penn can slow Edgar down so that he can shoot the jab and use his uppercut to hurt Edgar. If Edgar keeps his distance and uses lateral movement to keep away from the dangerous hands of BJ Penn. Edgar has to know that he has superior cardio to Penn, so for Edgar the key will be to keep distance, use the quick strike offense and try to take the fight deep.

I know that we’ve heard about BJ Penn getting in better shape, and re-dedicating himself to his passion but I’m a bit uneasy about that. On the other hand I’m not sure it will matter. Frankie Edgar caught lightning in the bottle the first time around, he fought the perfect fight, he caught BJ Penn on a bad night (for a guy who has more bad nights then he rightfully should) and this time around I think Penn will be more focused and determined to right a perceived wrong and reclaim his throne.

Official PFSE Prediction: BJ Penn via 3rd round submission

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Reminder: Do not forget that as we speak I’m at the UFC Fan Fest in Boston. Keep up to date with everything going on at the Hyatt Convention Center on my Twitter account (@411JRoche) and know that I anticipate doing at least one Cover It Live event for the Dana White keynote address on Saturday afternoon.

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Where to see the fight in and around Providence:

Smokey Bones @ Warwick, RI; @ Taunton, MA

Applebees @ Coventry, RI; @ Woonsocket, RI; @ Fall River, MA; @ Millbury, MA; @ Walpole, MA; @ South Kingston, RI; @ North Dartmouth, MA

Entourage @ Fall River, MA

Tickets Bar & Grille @ Middletown, RI

Waxy O’Connor’s @ Foxboro, MA

Charlie Horse @ West Bridgewater, MA

Hangover’s Tavern @ Rockland, MA

Check out these UFC® 118 predictions from other MMA Examiners:

• National MMA Examine Astrid Bidanec
  
• Miami MMA Examiner Harry Bergollo
  
• National MMA Examiner Eddie Graveline
  
• Houston MMA Examiner A.J. Hoffman
  
• Philadelphia MMA Examiner Kyle Holdsworth
  
• Indianapolis MMA Examiner Dennis "D Source" Guillermo
  
• Detroit Fight Sports Examiner Bill Shimizu
  
• Providence Fight Sports Examiner Joseph Roche
  
• Durham MMA Examiner Justin Harris
  
• Columbus MMA Examiner Trisha Barr
  
• Canadian MMA Examiner Mike Johnson