The overall photovoltaic (PV) solar industry has felt the ripple effect of declining costs for polycrystalline silicon, the major ingredient in crystalline silicon solar cells over the course of 2011 and many companies are restructuring their business plans for 2012 based on this trend. First Solar, a thin-film PV company headquartered in Tempe, Arizona, recently announced many changes across the board including focusing more on less-risky sustainable utility-scale projects as opposed to ones in subsidized regions.
Crystalline silicon solar cells comprise roughly 85 percent of the market and their price levels affect competitive alternatives such as thin-film solar cells, which require little to no polycrystalline silicon for production. According to Energy Trend, average polycrystalline prices fell 47 percent from May through November 2011, which subsequently lowered silicon solar module prices. Indirectly, thin-film PV solar module price per watt levels fell 21 percent over that same period. However, as solar module prices become more affordable, the corresponding increased demand has not led to rises in profit levels for solar manufacturers, since many are selling at unsustainable price levels to recapture costs of production.
The decrease in average thin-film solar module prices has put pressure on a specialized branch of this market offering competitive advantages over mainstream modules, namely building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV). This more costly, yet aesthetically pleasing alternative to conventional solar panels allows for a building to be solarized during construction using solar roof shingles or a thin film solar cell integrated to a flexible polymer roofing membrane, although existing buildings may be retrofitted with BIPV modules as well. The growth of this segment of the thin-film solar industry has been affected by the collapse of the real estate market in the US, especially with respect to new construction and as developers seek to lower costs rather than offer more innovative energy-savings benefits.
In any case, the role of PV performance monitoring is becoming more critical for increasing the return on investment for utility-scale solar projects. In general, utility companies are realizing they need to take a more active role in terms of selecting modules and predicting and monitoring solar power projects as renewables become a more substantial component of their overall energy portfolio.
Fluctuations in weather including snow, ice, dust, wind, temperature, and sun exposure can generate volatility or degrade performance of solar power output and reliability and possibly add unpredictability to the power grid. For example, efficiency varies sharply between crystalline silicon solar panels and cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film panels under high temperature desert conditions experienced in places such as southern Arizona. In specific, a CdTe solar panel from First Solar has shown up to a 50 percent higher efficiency level in tests by TUV Rheinland at extreme temperatures above 100F. This climate can accentuate defects such as hot spots on solar panels, and thermal imaging is increasingly being employed for utility-scale projects via overhead flights to detect these problems. In general, PV power plants tend to experience 5-10 malfunctions annually, as noted by Meteocontrol, a solar monitoring company, at the recent Solarpraxis Conference in Phoenix.
There will always be the trade-off between PV pricing and performance as utilities and residences acquire more solar resources.
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