Newswires all over California are burning with the rumblings that first-term Congresswoman Jackie Speier (D-Hillsborough) is contemplating a run for Attorney General of California, a seat that will likely be vacated by Jerry Brown, who will be seeking a second turn at the Governor’s wheel.
If Speier makes the jump, she will vacate a coveted seat in Congress – a political office with no term limitations and a commodity much in demand by any politician. Speier currently represents the 12th Congressional District, which encompasses the southwest corner of San Francisco and most of San Mateo County.
Speculation is already running rampant as to who will replace Speier.
There are many possibilities being mentioned, including State Senator Leland Yee, who succeeded Speier in the 8th State Senate District seat that overlaps the majority of the Congressional seat. There are of course two Assemblymembers who could also run for the seat, including Fiona Ma who is now serving her second term on the Assembly in the seat previously held by Yee, that is largely located in San Francisco. Freshman Assemblymember Jerry Hill could also be a contender for the seat. Hill, while new to State politics, has been involved in San Mateo County politics for 20 years and would also be a natural fit for the seat.
But the Assembly duo are rumored to be opting out of a Congressional bid in favor of remaining in State politics. That leaves Yee, at present, as the likely heir. However, there may be other contenders seeking this coveted prize who hail from San Francisco, including San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom.
But the most likely contender who may want the seat is State Senator Joe Simitian, who represents the 11th State Senate District based largely in Santa Clara County. Simitian, a resident of Palo Alto, represents the communities of Redwood City and San Carlos in the State Senate, a small portion of the 12th Congressional District. But Simitian will term out of office in two years forcing him to seek another office if he is to extend his political life.
Simitian has maintained a federal election account for some time in the hopes that one of the Congressional seats around him would open. That account, as of the January 2010 reporting period, has nearly $51,000 in it, not a war chest by any stretch of the imagination for a Congressional seat. Following the election of President Barak Obama, there was some speculation that South Bay Congressman Mike Honda would receive a cabinet appointment, thereby opening his seat. But the appointment never materialized and Simitian has been forced to wait.
At the same time, for added insurance, Simitian opened a State Assembly campaign account in the event that he would need to return to California’s lower house where he remains eligible to serve an additional two-year term under the State’s term limit laws, having served only two terms prior to being elected to the State Senate. Of course, if that were to happen, Simitian would have to oust whichever Democrat replaces Ira Ruskin from the 21st Assembly District as Ruskin is terming out of office this year with three Democrats vying to replace him.
Although Simitian does not even reside in one of the counties within Speier’s Congressional District, he can legally run for the seat anyway. And one can’t really blame Simitian for making preparations for every possible eventuality in the cold and high stakes poker of big time politics.
But at present, it looks like the seat is Yee’s to lose. In addition to already representing that vast majority of the district, it is also demographically one of the most Asian in terms of demographics of any Congressional district outside of the State of Hawaii. For Yee, that is a natural base and one he will command almost exclusively unless another Asian American candidate does not enter the fray.
In the final analysis, the landscape remains in flux as Speier’s sudden and likely departure from Congress has sparked a potential frenzy that will have many ramifications throughout the political spectrum on the Peninsula as offices are vacated and new offices sought.
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