Peak oil: a brief primer

Peak oil spells the end of western civilization. And, if it's not already too late, perhaps it will prevent the extinction of our species.

M. King Hubbert, a petroleum geologist employed by Shell Oil Co., described peak oil in 1956. Production of crude oil, like the production of many non-renewable resources, follows a bell-shaped curve. The top of the curve is termed "peak oil," or "Hubbert's peak," and it represents the halfway point for production.

The bell-shaped curve applies at all levels, from field to country to planet. After discovery, production ramps up relatively quickly. But when the light, sweet crude on top of the field runs out, increased energy and expense are required to extract the underlying heavy, sour crude. At some point, the energy required to extract a barrel of oil exceeds the energy contained in barrel of oil, so the pumps shut down. Considering oil is the lifeblood of western civilization and its apex, the world's industrial economy, decreasing availability of crude oil is leading directly to the end of western civilization.

In 1956, Hubbert predicted the continental United States would peak in 1970. He was correct, and the 1970s gave us a small, temporary taste of the sociopolitical and economic consequences of expensive oil.

The world oil peak was passed in May 2005 at 74.3 million barrels per day. The United States has been acquiring oil at the point of a gun, and much larger weapons, and also by paying more for oil than was required in the past. Along the way, the American lifestyle has been destroying one culture after another as the high price of crude oil forces supply disruptions and power outages in Third World countries. The latest figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicate world production has fallen to 72.1 million barrels per day. Energy scholars offer little hope the world will ever exceed the 74.3 million barrels per day of May 2005.

No alternative energy sources scale up to the level of a few million people, much less the 6.7 billion who currently occupy Earth. Oil is necessary to extract and deliver coal and natural gas. Oil is needed to produce solar panels and wind turbines, and to maintain the electrical grid. In fact, other energy sources are best termed "derivatives" of oil, rather than "alternatives."

The forthcoming death and suffering for industrial humans will be unimaginable because most residents of industrialized countries depend on cheap oil for the delivery of food, water, shelter, and medicine. On the other hand, the forthcoming cessation of economic growth is truly good news for the world's species and cultures. In addition, the abrupt halt of fossil-fuel consumption may slow the warming of our planetary home, thereby preventing the extinction of Homo sapiens.
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