The buzz in Nevada is the two-man race for first place there between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. As we have seen all season, every time Ron Paul is polling near or at the top of the pack it seems that new polls will all of a sudden come out just days before the voting and show him supposedly taking a nosedive which defies all logic and just should not be believed at this point. The pundits even admit that Ron Paul does not all of a sudden lose support so even when others are supposedly surging, it is not conceivable that the support is coming out of Paul's numbers. Although it was pretty much blacked-out by mainstream media coverage back in 2008, the fact is that Ron Paul came in 2nd in Nevada and is expected to be in contention for first this time in a race that could be very close with Romney. Recent polls now showing Paul supposedly in last place are so completely out of line with everything that is taking place on the ground in Nevada that I am not even going to dignify them by offering links. The fact is that even the pollsters are admitting that it is difficult to poll Nevada and that these recent polls were only conducted by calling landline phones, so no cell phone numbers or internet polling whatsoever.
The more important thing to watch rather than polls trying to deceive voters is of course the problems associated with voter fraud or more importantly, vote-count fraud. It has been reported in the Huffington Post that both Paul and Romney campaigns are concerned about this especially after the announcements that the results are going to be delayed from being reported from the caucuses. With most of the caucuses concluding by noon, the state GOP is not going to be releasing any number until starting at 5pm PST. This will be after the special caucus time of 3pm for the Adelson caucus location which has been marred with controversy after the casino billionaire and his wife pumped $10 million into Newt Gingrich's superPAC and then insisted on a later caucus time than the rest of the state and changed its location from his casino to his private school. Clark County which is the most heavily populated is said to be holding up its results from being reported until 7pm. The campaigns are worried about all these changes and delays and whether the integrity of the vote will be compromised. With the caucuses not all being held at the same time, there is also concern about possibly some voters voting more than once, perhaps going to the later caucus which is very unusual for this state.
One thing is for sure, despite the millions pumped into Newt's campaign, he basically has not even had any campaign to speak of on the ground in Nevada until just the last few days and is riddled with disorganization and virtually no real ground game going on at all there. He is competing with 2 candidates that have basically been organizing and solidifying support in this state over the last 4 years. To see any Gingrich upset here would be highly suspect. Politico had a recent article on the state of Newt's campaign in Nevada or lack thereof and his dismal outlook for the next few caucus states where his campaign is not prepared and not expecting to be a factor.
After tonight's results in Nevada, focus will shift back to the caucuses in Maine, Minnesota and Colorado which are expected to continue to be a two-man race between Paul and Romney. Many are predicting a Maine win for Ron Paul to be very likely. His showing in Nevada will be very important going into the rest of the caucuses. A win in Nevada could greatly spur him on into the rest of the next few states where he was already riding strong against Mitt Romney.
Ron Paul made a final plea in a video message to the voters of Nevada. (see video)
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