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(US News & World Report)
You want a political prediction? Sarah Palin won't run for president in 2012.
The latest poll on the GOP's potential 2012 presidential candidates finds Sarah Palin floundering behind Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. You always take political predictions with a grain of salt and polls this far out often are meaningless, but two pollsters, Tom Schaller and his colleague Nate Silver, have a bet over whether Palin will run at all.
What's up? A Fivethirtyeight.com, Schaller writes that Palin lost in the poll to two very different types of Republicans: Huckabee's "a southern man of faith with broad appeal to social conservatives," while Romney's "a northerner-midwesterner from the business wing of the party who is expected to struggle with the hardcore, evangelical conservative base."
Against these candidates, "Palin's ideological appeal is easily dominated because it is wide but not deep on the far right and neither wide nor deep among the party's institutional and more mainstream elements."
Schaller wagers that, given the fame Palin enjoys and the fortune she expects from her upcoming memoir, the former Alaska governor won't risk such a major flop. "Methinks she will play stay-at-home hockey mom in 2012."
Anyone care to wager? And if she doesn't run, who does, and does that increase or decrease the chances of a GOP victory in 2012? Why do Republicans think this woman is a savior for the GOP and how is that belief any different from all those people who thought Barack Obama would solve everything?
Comments
Palin is running. Make no mistake about it. She also has a lot of excitement on the GOP side that doesn't register on the traditional polls. Expect those numbers to change once she gets more visible and begins actually campaigning.
Stay away from political predictions, Bruce. You are clearly out of your depth and merely embarrassing yourself.
I hope she runs. With George W. Bush we were hated (but feared), while with Obama we are ridiculed and taken for imbeciles. It's a sad day for America when a woman has more balls than a man. I know, I know... Jesse Jackson cut Obama's nuts... Still, that's not an excuse...
This is NOT news. I posted even before she resigned from office that if you look at her speeches and facebooks and whatever, she typed or said the words Republican less than 3 times. Do the search for your self. She WILL NOT run in 2010 but in 2014 when the office is open. Unless Obamao changes the Constitution.
She will then have the entire leftist press's panties in the worlds largest knot!
Why would we want her over other politicians, especially Obama? She tells the truth without whitewashing and they lie.
2016, damn keyboard!
Paul F. Villarreal says: "Stay away from political predictions, Bruce. You are clearly out of your depth and merely embarrassing yourself."
I have to question your reading comprehension skills. I'm not the one making the prediction, not to mention, if anyone's embarrassing themselves it appears to be you. Do you like Palin? Are you so offended by someone's prediction against her that you felt the need to post a personal insult? What was the point of your post?
Frederik says: "...with Obama we are ridiculed and taken for imbeciles..."
By whom? What makes you say that?
Jackie says: "Why would we want her over other politicians, especially Obama? She tells the truth without whitewashing and they lie."
How do you know she's not lying? Conservatives have criticized Obama supporters as being star struck; isn't it possible that Palin supporters might be deluding themselves as well?
The big thing is that it was a Gallup poll. Take a look at Gallup's record during the election, they had 0bama up by double digits. Essentially, Gallup has become part of the DNC's propaganda arm. Whether Palin runs in 2012 is anyone guess, no one will declare for another 1.5 years, and that is a very long time in politics. If things don't radically change between now and the, I'd say she'll run, and will steamroll Huck, Mitt and anyone else standing in her way.
Fed Up says: "This is NOT news. I posted even before she resigned from office that if you look at her speeches and facebooks and whatever, she typed or said the words Republican less than 3 times..."
Could be, but I'd say any prediction by anyone in politics or about anyone in politics is at best premature. A YEAR is a long time in politics. Three years? An eternity. Remember when everyone said Hillary was a shoe-in for the nomination? A lot can happen between now and 2012. Palin could divorce, Obama could be assassinated, a nuclear exchange could occur between Pakistan and India... I found the prediction by the pollsters interesting based on the logic of their analysis --it made sense, but that doesn't mean Huckabee or Romney will be around in three years, either. I think the poll suggests a tough split the GOP has to face in the months ahead. How they reconcile that will be interesting.
Fed Up says: "2016, damn keyboard!"
Hey, at least your crystal ball is working!
;)
Frederik says:
"...while with Obama we are ridiculed and taken for imbeciles..."
no, we're not, it's just you dude...the world is only calling you an imbecil...especially russia, they were really badmouthing you...and I can't even repeat what they said about your momma.
Sarah Palin has more power in her Facebook "little finger" than the Messiah ever hoped to have.
Keep attacking the American People- you are just waking up YOUR WORTHLESS SHEEPLE.
GO SARAH!
She might not run for president -but she will win hearts and minds.
Obama is a Fascist FOOL.
They poll rich people for GOP polls. An AP story the other day suggests the political dynamic has changed. Rich people are Democrats these days. Not to mention most conservatives left the GOP. I being one of them can attest to that.
How much do you want to wager?
Double or nothing, she wins the White House too.
Alec Martin says: Sarah Palin has more power in her Facebook "little finger" than the Messiah ever hoped to have.
Keep attacking the American People- you are just waking up YOUR WORTHLESS SHEEPLE. GO SARAH! She might not run for president -but she will win hearts and minds. Obama is a Fascist FOOL.
I'm not sure I understand how someone can be so disparaging toward those who "attack the American people" by criticizing (or even making fun of ) Sarah Palin and who then goes on to call Obama a fascist. Is that also an "attack" on the American people" who supported him?
Maria says: "...most conservatives left the GOP..."
Therein, I think, lies a serious problem for the Republican party. What does it stand for anymore? Is it more centrist or more far right conservative? If it's far right conservative, that doesn't represent all Republicans (or even all conservatives). It becomes a smaller base of voters. How can they possibly elect any sizable representation in government? Or can they?
You want a political prediction? Romney will not run in 2012. By the time more information on Beck and Skousen comes out, it will be the end of the road for Romney.
Palin could not even finish her first term as governor. The fact that her own self interests trump her public responsibilities seriously question her ability to make a commitment and exercise good judgement, not to mention a complete focus on priority. What, exactly, based on her past performance and decisions qualifies her as the best option for POTUS?
indygirl says: "Palin could not even finish her first term as governor. The fact that her own self interests trump her public responsibilities seriously question her ability to make a commitment and exercise good judgment..."
I could see that being a talking point during an election campaign should she decide to run. Sometimes, voters are like juries and candidates like lawyers trying to create reasonable doubt.
As to what how her past performances and decisions qualify her as the best option for POTUS, I suppose Republicans could argue that same point about Obama, who had more but still limited experience by comparison to past candidates. And yet he beat as savvy a political machine as we've ever seen, the Clintons. Based on comments on these Palin threads, it seems they are as passionate a group of fans as Obama supporters were in the 08 campaign. We're sure to see each side switching arguments should Palin decide to run. Wouldn't be the first time that happened.
Frederik says:
"I hope she runs. With George W. Bush we were hated (but feared), while with Obama we are ridiculed and taken for imbeciles. It's a sad day for America when a woman has more balls than a man. I know, I know... Jesse Jackson cut Obama's nuts... Still, that's not an excuse..."
It is you and others like you, playing the propaganda game while exercising your ignorance and preferred lack of relevent knowledge, evidenced by your comments, that are being "ridiculed and taken for imbeciles" by the rest of the world. Can you explain what you mean by,elaborate on or have any evidence to support your claims that "a woman has more balls than a man." or "I know, I know... Jesse Jackson cut Obama's nuts..." See how that works? It doesn't.
Sarah Palin is the only rock star in American politics.With
Facebook post and two wards "death panels" she practically
killed Obamacare.Who else in America could have done that???
Who???!!!
You libs are petrified of SARAHCUDA.
YES,she will run,kick ass,take no prisoners and get the White
House.
SARAH PALIN ROCKS,ALL THE WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE!!!!!!!
Milan -- Two questions about your post:
1) Using the term "death panel" was a complete falsehood. There was no such thing in the any health care bill. Does it not concern you when someone can have such influence when uttering a false talking point? How is it any different from Obama uttering what many say were falsehoods during the campaign and yet, he won handily? I'm not saying Palin lied on purpose, but what she said was a falsehood, and that was a sad moment in the health care debate.
2) I'm also a little concerned about the "rock star" label. She's dynamic for sure, but I'm not interested in popularity, I'm interested in policy, a sound grasp of events, an ability to carefully weigh the issues and work with others. It's not a celebrity contest. It's not even a contest. We're hiring someone to do a job that requires serious thinkers, not speechmakers who spout the most clever slogan on the campaign trail.
Too often we vote for the rock star and not the workhorse.
oh, seriously!
Hey Rino,
Get a grip, with 10% unemployment which is closer to 20% by the time you figure in part time employment and unemployment benefits that have expired, 2012 is going to be about one thing, job creation. If Obama does not turn this economy around it will be Romney in the white house, mark my words. So what does Beck or Skousen have to do with Romney. Your a fool.
Marv, you have and idealized view of Romney.
Romney turn the economy around? Not a chance. Any fool can stand up and make all kinds of claims of what he is GOING to do. Romney sent jobs out of the county, Romney told Detroit to go bankrupt, in a news paper report Romney said he was glad his not in office due to the economy. Romney is for taking jobs, hording money for HIS insiders, and kicking decent people to the curb. The best freeway to success, is to bypass Romney and blaze a different trail.
Marv,
Romney/ Glen Beck
httpwwwyoutube.comwatch?v=Oy8r5yCLLj4
Glenn Beck and Romney on the North America Union
“Not, get cheap labor from next door” quote Romney ?! --- Tool Romney sent jobs out of the US.
Romney while a student at BYU, had sat under the tutelage of Dr. Cleon Skousen, those are classes one signs up for, no one tells someone which professor to take.
To answer the question: What do they have to do with Romney? LOTS!!!!!
Romney will throw anyone under the bus to try to dodge, conceal, spin and flop.
Merv, stop calling people fools
Quigley on Romneys book “conspicuous arrogance to it, which he asks us to wear with our chests out.”…. “without a moment’s introspection. It looks to the past to continue the past. It would be what he is good at, but I think it is off the mark and most Americans are getting beyond it and ready for a new turning.”
------ key points: no introspection, in the past, Americans are ready for something new
Quigley on Palins book “Going Rogue, however, suggests a new direction, a new adventure, something just ahead there in the great unknown. It is a very good title and speaks in essence to the frontier spirit of those who venture beyond the Hudson River or the Beltway.”
Cheee...brilliant analysis! When did Sarah ever announce that she was running for President in 2012? Why would she, knowing that both major parties are totally rotten & corrupt?
totally agree with Bruce here.
"Methinks she will play stay-at-home hockey mom in 2012."
i am a thinker, but i think. do you really believe there are intelligent animal species existing outside of america? i think no.
Sarah who?
If Palin doesn't run, it benefits Huck. They both appeal to the same voters; primarily single issue social conservatives that will ignore the Country's horrific financial issues and the impending doom facing us and instead will concentrate on a few social issues (abortion and gay marriage) that won't matter if the Nation goes bankrupt and ceases to exist as we know it.
Sarah Palin representing the US, oh please. Once more the laughing stock of the world we will be.
Sarah Palin is SUPER STAR and POLITICAL GENIUS!!!
Before Chicago thugs went to Alaska to file frivolous complaints
against Sarah,Governor Palin had 83% approval.No governor in any
state,at any time had such high approval.Why?
Because she took on Republican crooks,some of them are still in jail,put surplus in Alaska's budget etc,etc,etc,etc...
Instead of playing thug's game,she resigned and freed herself.
In fiew months she became very wealthy and ready to take on libs
AND RINOS.
SARAH PALIN THE NEXT PRESIDENT of USA!!!!!
"Why do Republicans think this woman is a savior for the GOP"
Good question I am a republican who thinks she will be the destruction of the republican party.
"and how is that belief any different from all those people who thought Barack Obama would solve everything?"
He had, still has, much more support than Sarah
I heard Barry is writing a new book it's called "How I Became The Worst President In US History: It's Bush's Fault"
Sarah Palin is SUPER STAR and POLITICAL GENIUS!!!
Before Chicago thugs went to Alaska to file frivolous complaints
against Sarah,Governor Palin had 83% approval.No governor in any
state,at any time had such high approval.Why?
Because she took on Republican crooks,some of them are still in jail,put surplus in Alaska's budget etc,etc,etc,etc...
Instead of playing thug's game,she resigned and freed herself.
In fiew months she became very wealthy and ready to take on libs
AND RINOS.
SARAH PALIN THE NEXT PRESIDENT of USA!!!!!
If Palin were to become President it would make me long for people like Dick Cheney, George W and Dan Quayle! That's when we had some super intellect in government.
Seriously, we ALL need to pray that Sarah Palin does NOT make it to the White House.... there has never been a bigger idiot in American Politics than Palin. You can call her a rock star or whatever you want, but listen to the content of her speeches.... there isn't a lot going on in that brain.
In the comments section of a previous article (www.examiner.com/x-15870-Populist-Examiner~y2009m10d19-Sarah-Palin-adds-LinkedIn-page-to-her-thriving-web-network), a reader named Barri wrote:
"my prediction , Sarah will announce on Oprah."
With all due respect to Barri, that just sounds like someone who's a fan a Palin, who calls her "Sarah," who thinks she's a savior (sort of like a different Barry we know?). It reminds me of Milan's comment in this thread (on Oct 22, 1:24) of voters who root for candidates because they like them, not because they're truly good candidates --the whole Rock Star thing. How much of this Palin passion is truly policy driven and how much is just plain "fandemonium"? I'm fine with the first, not the second. Does anyone REALLY think Palin will announce anything on Oprah? What do people like Barri say after she doesn't? Do they ever consider that maybe they were being a fan rather than being realistic? Are some voters incapable of being realistic?
ATL-9 says: If Palin doesn't run, it benefits Huck. They both appeal to the same voters; primarily single issue social conservatives that will ignore the Country's horrific financial issues and the impending doom facing us and instead will concentrate on a few social issues (abortion and gay marriage) that won't matter if the Nation goes bankrupt and ceases to exist as we know it.
That's part of the point. I think Huck is a far better choice but can he appeal to enough Republicans to make a race of it in 2012. I don't think so --today-- but I suspect when the time comes (a year or so from now) he'll emerge as the party's front runner. Unless Tim Pawlenty proves to be viable. That's someone no one has brought up yet (including me).
Blah Blah Blah says: "I heard Barry is writing a new book it's called 'How I Became The Worst President In US History: It's Bush's Fault'"
Several readers have contributed some very interesting comments here but sorry, this comment is not one of them. It's a reminder of the childish, bottom feeding our political discourse has become and I think we're all better off without it.
The column here is intended to raise all sorts of questions under the banner of "exactly what should the Republican Party be as it goes forward?" That's an important question regardless of your ideological bent or party affiliation, so let's steer clear of the immature diatribes, shall we?
midroad - "Why do Republicans think this woman is a savior for the GOP" Good question I am a republican who thinks she will be the destruction of the republican party. "and how is that belief any different from all those people who thought Barack Obama would solve everything?" He had, still has, much more support than Sarah
I understand. I think you know I'm referring to the criticism levied at Obama, that his supporters think he's a "rock star," or as some talk show hosts and bloggers put it, "The One." Using their criteria, why are they not equally critical of this same infatuation with Palin? Is it do as I say, not as I do?
Huckabee may become the Republican front runner but he'll never win a national election. His ONLY base are the evangelical conservatives and some social conservatives.
He'll also be fumbling over economic issues and seem just as inept as Pres. Obama.
How will Huckabee be a distinguished choice for a America? Huckabee's judgment lapses in the Dumond case and taking political gifts from political supports will paint Huckabee in a much different light in a general election. His record on taxes and spending will have pundits claiming that there is no difference between Obama and Huckabee and therefore, why not 4 more years of Obama?
Next, Huckabee probably has the least experience in raising money for a national campaign. Obama money will dwarf Huckabee's best efforts.
Sure, Huckabee would get the Republican nomination but he'll never win the office of the Presidency against Obama.
indyguy, I heard you were getting fired, I told you to clean the toilets better, yeah I did.
If Sarah Palin likes the spot light so much, why have we only seen a few post from facebook, unlike other politicians who are still in campaign mode.
She is a threat, why do you think so many bash her and try to down palyer. Ralph Nadar is an example and Ron Paul is an example. Nadar doesn't have a clue (or a large enough following), and Ron Paul is the same way. But neither pose a threat to the left or RINO's.
THAT is why she is targeted.
Polls are down because she has not been out there. Just wait, when she hits the campaign trail, and she will, the polls will reverse.
Despite recent polls that show Sarah Palin to be trailing Huckabee and Romney as possible presidential candidates in 2012, it will be the heart of republican voters that will determine the outcome…Sarah Palin. Let’s not forget, Ronald Reagan trailed behind other republican candidates before winning the nomination for the 1980 presidential race.
We know what happened after that!
Wait and see in three years where Palin will be, Reagan had a bad first run, she is going to be another Reagan and win 48+ states.
I thought she might run but after hearing she's appearing on Oprah as her first interview after her self imposed media slience, Im afraid the left may be right about her..more interested in selling books and being a celebrity than a serious political candidate. Appearing on Oprah is like Obama appearing on Beck or Hannity...you don;t give an interview to someone that you know has an agenda against you...certainly not someone who;s not even a journalist...what does she have to gain from this other than more book sales...but then again doesn;t she have enough of that already?? She doesn;t need Oprah...Oprah will benefit from her appearance on her show than Palin ever will
Kyle -- that's a spot on assessment and I suspect it was one reason many Republicans were hoping for a Bobby Jindal candidacy (until he crashed last Jan) or why many are still hoping for Palin to make a run. It all highlights the difficulties facing the GOP in the near future. This decade has seen a further move righward by the GOP, at least by the noisy members of the party, and along with it, a more obdurate, intemperate hostility --it's a turn off that may be turning mainstream Republicans into Blue Dog Dems and independent voters into Obama voters. At this juncture, this looks like one the Democrats will have to lose in order for Republicans to win --not that that hasn't happened before. It just happened to Republicans this decade and indeed may be one of the more immediate legacies of the Bush presidency.
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