19th Century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli is famous for saying “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Stats may often be misleading, but they’re still a useful tool in examining performance.
ESPN’s John Hollinger calculates a statistic called Player Efficiency Rating, or PER, which is basically a composite of several other statistics. PER attempts to quantify a players overall contributions to his team in a single number, and the average PER for the NBA is set at 15.00. Last season, John Hollinger calculated that LeBron James had the highest PER at 31.76, and Donte Green of the Sacramento Kings had the lowest PER at 5.18.
Player Efficiency Rating can also be misleading because it does not take into account any defensive performances that don't result in steals or blocks. A player like Ron Artest is more valuable than his rating because PER doesn't compensate for his abilty to be a constant nuisance to scorers and strike fear into opponents, refs, and fans alike with his general demeanor that verges on insanity. Other players are less valuable than they're PER because, despite racking up nice statistics, they get scored on by the other team every time down the floor.
Even though PER is weighted towards offense, we can gather some interesting information by comparing players with this statistic. Here are some predictions for the Indiana Pacers based on these statistics.
Who will start at C, Jeff Foster or Roy Hibbert?
The incumbant center for the Pacers, Jeff Foster, had a slightly below average PER of 13.00 despite leading the team with his plus/minus rating of +92. Roy Hibbert is actually one of the four Pacers' players to have an above average rating in the 2007-2008 season, and as a rookie he should only improve. His rating of 16.16 was 25th among centers.
Hibbert should get the starting center position to start the season, but it should be noted that Foster's PER last season came against opposing starters whereas Hibbert's were predominantly against reserves. If Hibbert struggles against the stiffer competition, Foster should replace him in the starting lineup.
Who will start at SG, Dahntay Jones or Brandon Rush?
These two were neck and neck in their efficiency rating last season, with Jones just edging out Rush's PER of 9.06 with a PER of 9.07. But since Jones was brought in as a defensive specialist, and PER doesn't put as much emphasis on defense, I think Jones will get the starting nod at the beginning of the season.
Rush is a young player, and if he continues to develop he could take over the starting role at some point in the season. Dahntay Jones can also play small forward, so if Rush takes over the starting position Jones can come off the bench at SG or to give Danny Granger a breather. No matter who the starter is, this will be a three man rotation.
Who will start at PF, Troy Murphy or Tyler Hansbrough?
Hansbrough will have to play extremely well, at least statistically, in his rookie season to match Troy Murphy's player efficiency rating and unseat him as the starting power forward. Troy Murphy's PER of 17.81 ranked second on the team to Danny Granger last season. That actually puts Murphy as the 58th best player in the league according to Hollinger's calculations.
However, the Pacers drafted Hansbrough as part of an off-season overhaul dedicated to improving defense, and Murphy is definitely a defensive liability. Murphy will likely begin the season as the starter, but if Hansbrough's toughness translates to more consistent team defense, he could win the position by the end of the year.
How will the Pacers fair in 2009?
The Pacers had four players with above average player efficiency ratings last season, and the eventual champions, the L.A. Lakers, had only five. However, the Lakers had three players in the top 25, and the only other team with three top-25 players was the San Antonio Spurs. The Pacers only player with a top-25 PER was Danny Granger, who had the 16th highest PER overall and the second highest among small forwards.
For the Pacers to seriously contend with the elite NBA franchises, they're going to need another player to step up and become a star player in the league.
More predictions with PER to come...
Comments
Actually Hibert started 42 of the 70 something games he appeared in last season. And because of foul trouble he typically only made appearances in the beginnings of the first and third quarters. So its probably not fair to say most of his numbers came predominantly against reserves since the starters of opposing teams are on the floor during the openings of those two quarters.
Got something to say?
Examiner.com is looking for writers, photographers, and videographers to join the fastest growing group of local insiders. If you are interested in growing your online rep apply to be an Examiner today!