There’s been intense discussion around Twitter and Magic: The Gathering blogs about the “somewhat controversial” inclusion of uncommon green all-star Overrun in the Magic: The Gathering 2012 Core Set. So intense that Director of R&D Aaron Forsythe decided to make a blog post revealing win percentage data from the last set we saw Overrun in – M10.
Paired against things like Master of the Wild Hunt, Baneslayer Angel, Ant Queen, Mind Control, and Garruk Wildspeaker, Overrun didn’t seem to command the titanic game shifting power that people were talking about. The issue? This data only looks at sealed deck events, not draft.
Mr. Forsythe makes a bold claim after revealing the data.
It takes a second to realize that there’s no speculation here, no guessing. This is a historical record. A series of facts.
From these numbers it’s hard to say Overrun is a bomb. It isn’t the top green card, nor the top uncommon. Heck, it isn’t the top green uncommon. That said, it still can be disheartening to lose to.
It’s hard to disagree with that. There’s no arguing with facts. But a lot of Overrun’s actual power and pervasiveness in the Limited environment is completely lost in sealed structure, it’s a card you can pick early and draft around – not try and create a sub-par sealed deck by forcing a triple green win condition to a pool that may or may not have any other green cards of note.
Mr. Forsythe notes the top finishing card in full Scars block limited is Wurmcoil Engine – a card that will always be played in any pool it appears in and “almost” always first picked (There could be a foil one in there).
Overrun is NOT a sealed deck bomb unless the rest of your pool can support it. Triple green can be a tall order and many times “forcing” it in sealed is actually a really bad idea.
In draft when a player is faced with the choice of passing an Overrun P1/P1 or a quality rare, a lot of choices can be set in stone right then and there. And when the second, and maybe even the third come rolling by, a player finds out real fast whether they made the right choice. You may not want to take the Overrun, but it’s not going to be an easy pass.
The issue isn’t the power level of the card entirely; it’s the sheer impact it has on a draft. Overrun is definitely a lot more dangerous in an environment players can build around a restrictive casting cost instead of try and stick it in a sealed deck where it doesn’t belong. The complications arise from a combination of demands related to building around it and the uncommon rarity level.
One inevitably brings up Mind Control since it shares the uncommon slot, players are probably more comfortable with it than Overrun because there is the premise that it could be dealt with before a win occurs because of it, via Oblivion Ring or even taking the 2 for 1.
There’s no real “response” to an Overrun victory unless a player is lucky enough to have a counterspell or several instant cast removal spells in the grip and mana to cast them.
Personal Note: I liked Overwhelming Stampede. It didn’t require the insane commitment and wasn’t something you had to play around at all times, from the first pick to the final card played. The rare slot, less restrictive casting cost, and “same” flavor worked out well in M11. We’ll see if Overrun is the wrecking ball we all remember from M10 as we move into M12 draft season.
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