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OSCARS 2010: Who Should Win, Who Will Win & Why!

The 82nd Academy Awards ceremony will take place tomorrow night. Here go some hearty predictions:

Best Short Film: "The Door"

Best Animated Short Film: "Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty"

Best Documentary Short: "Music by Prudence"

And here go some fleshed out rationalizations on how the accolades will spread:

Best Original Song -- Who Should Win: "The Weary Kind" (Crazy Heart) - Who Will Win: "The Weary Kind" (Crazy Heart) - Why: Hollywood is finished with the Disney musical. Plus Jeff Bridge's momentum will help the film in these other categories.

Best Makeup -- Who Should Win: "Il Divo" - Who Will Win: "Star Trek" - Why: The Academy will make it up to the Trekkies who thought this reboot deserved a Best Pic nod (which it didn't get) by awarding the film here.

Best Documentary -- Who Should Win: "Food, Inc." - Who Will Win: "The Cove" - Why: Even though "Food, Inc." is the stronger film, "The Cove" has the horrid sounds (and images) of crying dolphins seconds before they get slaughtered, and thus a sure win.

Best Original Score -- Who Should Win: "Fantastic Mr. Fox" - Who Will Win: "Up" - Why: Pixar has the Academy at the palm of their hands with Michael Giacchino's whimsical soundtrack.

Best Visual Effects -- Who Should Win: "Avatar" - Who Will Win: "Avatar" - Why: Let's face it, "Avatar" stinks but its visuals are hard to ignore.

Best Art Direction -- Who Should Win: "The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus" - Who Will Win: "Avatar" - Why: These tech categories are the only real locks for "Avatar."

Best Film Editing -- Who Should Win: "Inglourious Basterds" - Who Will Win: "The Hurt Locker" - Why: Sally Menke has been Quentin Tarantino's Thelma Schoonmaker for years but it will be hard to trump the nail biting tension "The Hurt Locker" creates in several scenes.

Best Costume Design -- Who Should Win: "The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus" - Who Will Win: "The Young Victoria" - Why: A winning performance from Emily Blunt augments an already impressive wardrobe presence.

Best Sound Editing -- Who Should Win: "The Hurt Locker" - Who Will Win: "Avatar" - Why: The Academy will keep the suspense steady during the night by piling on these tech awards for James Cameron's sci-fi spectacle. Can't say the same for the top tier categories though...

Best Sound -- Who Should Win: "The Hurt Locker" - Who Will Win: "The Hurt Locker" - Why: When the bombs go off in this war drama, the sound team really makes them resonate.

Best Foreign Film -- Who Should Win: "A Prophet" (France) - Who Will Win: "The White Ribbon" (Germany) Why: Acclaimed filmmaker Michael Haneke already won Best PIcture prizes from Cannes and the Golden Globes. It's hard to see "The White Ribbon" stopping with award wins now.

Best Adapted Screenplay -- Who Should Win: "In The Loop" - Who Will Win: "Up In The Air" Why: Considering that "Up In The Air" stands no chance of winning the Best Picture award, expect the Academy to honor it here.

Best Original Screenplay -- Who Should Win: "The Hurt Locker" - Who Will Win: "The Hurt Locker" - Why: Quentin Tarantino has been scrutinized lately for blurring the lines between paying homage and simply ripping off earlier pulp movies. "Basterds" is a great entertainment but the Academy will stun viewers by making Tarantino go home empty handed.

Best Cinematography -- Who Should Win: "The Hurt Locker" - Who Will Win: "The White Ribbon" - Why: "Ribbon" recently won the ASC (American Society of Cinematographers) award, which is composed of the same group of voters.

Best Animated Film -- Who Should Win: "Fantastic Mr. Fox" - Who Will Win: "Up" - Why: The Academy is such a sucker for Pixar that they will make the awful mistake of not honoring Wes Anderson's excellent stop-motion masterpiece.

Best Supporting Actress -- Who Should Win: Vera Farmiga "Up In The Air" - Who Will Win: Mo'Nique "Precious: Based on the novel 'Push' by Sapphire" - Why: The Academy loves villains in supporting roles (Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men," Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight," etc.) and "Precious" has a nasty one indeed.

Best Supporting Actor -- Who Should Win: Christoph Waltz "Inglourious Basterds" - Who Will Win: Christoph Waltz "Inglourious Basterds" - Why: Waltz won Best Actor at Cannes for his riveting performance and has never stopped visiting the podium since.

Best Actress -- Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan "An Education" - Who Will Win: Meryl Streep "Julie & Julia" - Why: Everyone is convinced Sandra Bullock has this one in the bag for "The Blind Side," but "The Blind Side" was one of 2009's worst films. It's hard to imagine the Academy making this absurd choice--but if it does happen, expect universal groans.

Best Actor -- Who Should Win: Jeff Bridges "Crazy Heart" - Who Will Win: Jeff Bridges "Crazy Heart" - Why: Bridges has a hard to match filmography that is full of great performances and in "Crazy Heart" he avoids any Oscar-hungry theatrics. It's all Bridges, creating another memorable character.

Best Director -- Who Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow "The Hurt Locker" - Who Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow "The Hurt Locker" - Why: Bigelow is set to make Oscar history by becoming the first woman to win Best Director. Her work in "Locker" is a perfect example of directorial control and artistic loyalty.

Best Picture -- Who Should Win: "The Hurt Locker" - Who Will Win: "The Hurt Locker" - Why: Yes, "Avatar" has made billions of dollars but "The Hurt Locker" will earn more votes. It's the Oscars, not the Monday morning box office receipt counter. Plus, it's going to be tough to separate the Best Director from the 'Best Directed Picture.'

What do you think will happen on Sunday night?

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Comments

  • Carson 4 years ago

    Good predictions. Looking forward to a follow-up in the next few days.

  • Lovey 4 years ago

    Sandra Bullock will win Best Actress because it is for BEST actress, and Blindside was not a dumb movie. Julia Roberts turned it down and she regrets it now. Meryl Streep, who is fabulous as always , was charater acting.Hurt Locker, best Picture. Screenplay:Up in the Air., Honestly, I think Nine should come up with some Oscars. Just because Mrs. Michael Douglas was fired from this very good picture..well..just saying...
    Single Man may very well get best cinema photography and maybe best picture.

  • Corey 4 years ago

    Really angry that Black Dynamite didnt reciece any nods. I think it should take home all but ofcourse the animated scenes, even though there was an animation montage in the middle. Stupid Academy!

  • Chip 4 years ago

    I really want to see Fantastic Mr. Fox, but I haven't, so I'll have to reserve judgment. However, I love UP, and I want it to get all the awards it can get, including a potential Best Picture upset.

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