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Oscar Predictions Should be Predictable, or Not

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Sunday night is the biggest night in Hollywood. The stars will be out, dressed beautifully and ready to win. Those watching will be wondering if the Brits will be the big winners, possibly sweeping the awards. Still, there were a lot of great performances nominated so it is possible that that Sunday night will be a night of surprises.

The biggest question for the night will be how James Franco and Anne Hathaway fair after hosting showbiz's hottest night. Choosing Franco and Hathaway is refreshing choice, since over the past decade, audiences have listened to comedians attempt to be funny, but fail (Billy Crystal and Ellen aside). Since Franco and Hathaway are part of the Hollywood click and both seem to be goofy and fun, perhaps audiences will see a show that rivals one hosted by Degeneres or Crystal.

Below you'll find some analysis and predictions.

Actor in a Leading Role

All the buzz seems to suggest that Colin Firth is locked in, and after seeing “The King’s Speech” it seems very likely he will take home the award. He was truly brilliant. If there were to be a surprise it would be because Jesse Eisenberg takes the award home. Still, Firth is a shoe-in.

  • Javier Bardemin “Biutiful”
  • Jeff Bridgesin “True Grit”
  • Jesse Eisenbergin “The Social Network”
  • Colin Firth in “The King's Speech” Predicted Winner
  • James Francoin “127 Hours”

Actor in a Supporting Role

This category has a lot of talent, all of whom are deserving—except for Ruffalo who plays a variation of his other characters in “The Kids Are All Right.” Christian Bale is favored to win. The upset on Sunday would occur if Rush wins for “The King’s Speech.”

  • Christian Bale in “The Fighter” Predicted Winner
  • John Hawkesin “Winter's Bone”
  • Jeremy Rennerin “The Town”
  • Mark Ruffaloin “The Kids Are All Right”
  • Geoffrey Rushin “The King's Speech”

Actress in a Leading Role

It seems the two favored to win are Bening and Portman. Portman’s performance is truly Oscar worthy and is favored to win over Bening. The real surprise performance in this category is Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone.” It would be a real shock if she won, still she is good competition for the other talents in this category.

  • Annette Beningin “The Kids Are All Right”
  • Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
  • Jennifer Lawrencein “Winter's Bone”
  • Natalie Portmanin “Black Swan” Predicted Winner
  • Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

Actress in a Supporting Role

This award could go to anyone. The favorite was Melissa Leo, but according to some Leo’s campaigning a bit too hard, and has turned off some voters. Leo did win the Golden Globe, but since her campaign she may no longer be the favorite. Hailee Steinfeld is the predicted winner for this category. Her name has been dominating because she’s 14 and her most recent role before “True Grit” was a JcPenny commercial. Oscar worthy? You bet.

  • Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
  • Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech”
  • Melissa Leoin “The Fighter”
  • Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit” Predicted Winner
  • Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

Animated Feature Film

All three of these films were lovely, but it’s hard not to predict that “Toy Story 3” won’t win, because it is nominated for Best Picture. This category is slim pickings, however.

  • “Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson Predicted Winner
  • “How to Train Your Dragon”Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
  • “The Illusionist”Sylvain Chomet

Directing

This award will likely go to Darren Arnofsky, because his resume is quite strong, and he’s yet to win an Oscar. There is a lot of talk of David Fincher winning. He did win the Golden Globe, but it seems that the academy wasn’t as smitten with “The Social Network” as the Hollywood Foreign Press was with it.

  • “Black Swan”Darren Aronofsky Predicted Winner
  • “The Fighter”David O. Russell
  • “The King's Speech”Tom Hooper
  • “The Social Network”David Fincher
  • “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Documentary (Feature)

  • “Exit through the Gift Shop” Banksy and Jaimie D'Cruz Predicted Winner
  • “Gasland” Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
  • “Inside Job” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
  • “Restrepo” Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
  • “Waste Land” Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley

Foreign Language Film

If “Dogtooth” wins, a possible Academy Awards boycott is in order, although it was critically acclaimed. “Biutiful” is the odds on favorite. “In a Better World Won” the Golden Globe, so it could be the surprise win in this category.

  • “Biutiful”Mexico Predicted Winner
  • “Dogtooth”Greece
  • “In a Better World”Denmark
  • “Incendies”Canada
  • “Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)”Algeria

Music (Original Score)

  • “How to Train Your Dragon”John Powell
  • “Inception”Hans Zimmer
  • “The King's Speech”Alexandre Desplat
  • “127 Hours” A.R. Rahman
  • “The Social Network”Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross Predicted Winner

Music (Original Song)

  • “Coming Home”from “Country Strong” Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
  • “I See the Light”from “Tangled” Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
  • “If I Rise”from “127 Hours” Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
  • “We Belong Together”from “Toy Story 3" Music and Lyric by Randy Newman Predicted Winner

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

“The Social Network” will probably take this award home, but let’s not forget about the quiet film, “Winter’s Bone” whose superior writing is evident in every scene.

  • “127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
  • “The Social Network”Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin Predicted Winner
  • “Toy Story 3”Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
  • “True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
  • “Winter's Bone”Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

Writing (Original Screenplay)

“The King’s Speech” will in this because it’s is the first time the story of King George VI and his struggle with his stutter. It is also such a beautiful story and deserving. If there is an upset in this category it may go to “Inception.”

  • “Another Year”Written by Mike Leigh
  • “The Fighter”Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson; 
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
  • “Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
  • “The Kids Are All Right”Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg

“The King's Speech”Screenplay by David Seidler Predicted Winner

Best Picture

First off there are too many films in this category. Ten films is outrageous. More than half of them don’t deserve to be nominated for the Best Picture. The favorite and predicted winner is “The King’s Speech” but the upset will either come from “The Social Network” or “The Fighter.”

  • “Black Swan”Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
  • “The Fighter”David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
  • “Inception”Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
  • “The Kids Are All Right”Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
  • “The King's Speech”Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers Predicted Winner
  • “127 Hours”Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
  • “The Social Network”Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
  • “Toy Story 3”Darla K. Anderson, Producer
  • “True Grit”Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
  • “Winter's Bone" Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers
  • “True Grit” Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

So what do you think? Click here if you’d like to make your ballot and see if your predictions are correct on Sunday night.

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