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Oscar Predictions

Photo Courtsey of Adweek.com
Photo Courtsey of Adweek.com
adweek.com

The Academy Awards are finally here. Tune in to ABC at 8 PM Eastern time. There has been quite a bit of buzz around the award show this year, in part because it was a rough year for movies and because of the Academy’s decision to add five more nominations to the best film category. This seemed especially strange when it’s difficult to argue whether there were even five films released in 2009 that were worthy of a best film nomination.

The Academy has essentially exposed its greedy agenda taking the merit and prestige away from the award; not to mention the filthy campaigning going on by filmmakers to win the awards. There are many issues surrounding the addition of nominations to only one category, ignoring the other major categories, like best actor, actress, director, screenplay and so on. The negligence of the academy and its not-so-sneaky way of showing that the awards are, in fact, more political than anything else do make for an interesting year. It is likely this bureaucratic bs will boost ratings and get the public interested in film.

So for the sake of making predictions here are some for the major categories. These predictions are only that, also the foundation of these predictions are based mostly on hype, gut instinct, and probabilities. In some of the categories, you will see two predictions one will be which is predicted to win and one will be which the reviewer would like to see win. To see all the nominations and for a printable list click here and see if your predictions come true this evening.

Best Animated Film
Prediction: "Up"
Why? It’s nominated for the best film OF THE YEAR if it doesn’t win this category it will be quite surprising. Also. it was really great.
GP would also like to see: "Fantastic Mr. Fox" win. This movie was hilarious and unique. Also, the love for anything and everything Wes Anderson forces a pure bias.

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Prediction: Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”
Why? There is so much hype and buzz around his performance in this film. It also seems like his year for a win.
GP would like to see: George Clooney in “Up in Air” win.
Why? His character, although similar to his public persona, had a lot of depth and although he should have been a character the audience hated he instead was a character the audience loved. That is talent.

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Prediction: Christopher Waltz in “Ingourious Basterds”
Why? Very simple, he was the best. End of story.

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Prediction: Carey Mulligan in “An Education”
Why? Two of the women in this category are oldies but goodies, Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep, While they are talented enough is enough. They’ve won, give someone else a chance. It also seems unlikely that Sandra Bullock will win for “The Blind Side” although the academy may shock audiences the way they did when Julia Roberts won for “Erin Brockovich.” This leaves Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe who starred in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire.” Both had Oscar worthy performances.

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Prediction: Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Saphire”
Why? She won the Golden Globe in the same category and there is a lot of hype buzzing around her.
GP would also like to see: Maggie Gyllenhaal or Vera Farmiga win but this has nothing to do with their performances, so you go Mo’Nique!

The following are categories the categories that audience sits through to get to best actress, actor, director, and film. And like the Oscars, you will find those predictions below.

Achievement in Art Direction
Prediction: Avatar
Why? See the movie, you’ll know why.

Achievement in Cinematography
Prediction: Avatar
Why? Visually this movie was incredible.
GP Would like to See: “Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince” or “Inglourious Basterds” win. HP because it too is stunning visually—all of them are-- and “Inglourious Basterd” because Tarantino has an eye for some great shots that leave the audience in awe.

Achievement in Costume Design
Prediction: The Young Victoria
Why? It’s a period piece (as are most in the category) and Powell seems to have nailed it.
Other possible contenders: “Coco before Chanel” the film is about a fashion designer the costumes are fabulous like Chanel was. Also “Nine” although critics claim the movie stinks, Colleen Atwood has 8 Oscar nominations in this category and two wins, her chances look good.

Best Documentary Feature

Prediction: “The Cove”
Why? It’s about protecting whales and dolphins and with the Green movement in full swing it seems to have a good chance.
Other possible contenders: “Food, Inc.” It did well in the box office –for a documentary and our society is obsessed with where our food comes from, how its processed, and how its going kill us.

Achievement in Film Editing
Prediction: “The Hurt Locker”
Why? This movie has so much buzz around it, but it seems as if it’s going to get passed over by the Academy for any of the awards that audiences care about. This award might be the bone, this movie gets thrown.
Other possible contenders: “Avatar” because it might clean house, and “Inglourious Basterds” because the film was well edited.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Prediction: “Ajami” Israel.
Why? Israel has been nominated 8 times and is yet to win.
Possible Contenders: France’s “Un Prophete” Statically it looks good for France. They have they highest number of nominations for foreign film (35) followed by Italy (27) and have won 9 of those awards, the second highest after Italy (10).

Achievement in Makeup
Prediction: The Young Victoria
Why? It’s a period piece and it’s nominated for best film, there must be something great about it. Right?
GP would like to see: Star Trek win. This movie was totally snubbed by the Oscars—the poor Science Fiction nerds have it rough-- and visually this movie was great and the actors in the film, looked transformed. That is what makeup is all about.

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
Prediction: "Up"
Why? Michael Giacchino writes the music for the television series Lost and let’s be honest, the music plays a huge role in how great that show is. The same is true for the moving melodies that repeat throughout the film “Up”. Michael Giacchino could be the next John Williams.

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
Prediction: “The Weary Kind” from "Crazy Heart"
Why? Gut feeling
Possible Contenders: Either of the songs by Randy Newman for “The Princess and the Frog” are likely. Randy Newman has won a few times for his work with Disney and Pixar. Also, the music in Disney productions is usually fantastic.

Achievement in Sound Editing
Prediction: “Avatar”
Why? Gut Feeling
GP would like to see either “Inglourious Basterds” or “Star Trek” win, but has a feeling James Cameron’s “Avatar” is going to clean house.

Achievement in Sound Mixing
Prediction: “Avatar”
Why? See Sound editing

Achievement in Visual Effects
Prediction: Avatar
Why? This is the one award “Avatar” actually deserves.

Adapted Screenplay
Prediction: “Precious: Based on the novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
Why? Like the Editing category (see below) and “The Hurt Locker” this could be the bone this movie wins.
Possible Contender: “Up in the Air” This film also had some great writing and translated well to the screen.

Original Screenplay
Prediction: “Inglourious Basterds”
Why? You cannot deny that Quentin Tarantino can write. Also the story and dialogue for this film was truly great.
Other Possible Contenders: “A Serious Man” because you gotta love those Cohen brothers and “The Hurt Locker” again because of all that buzzing.

Best Motion Picture of the Year
Prediction: It’s a toss up between “Avatar” and “Inglourious Basterds”
Why? It could be “Avatar” because of all the campaigning and the new voting system which asks voters to rank the films from 1-10, which could will either help “Avatar” or hurt it. Although, truth be told, this film does not deserve best film of the year because it wasn’t the best. It didn’t provide audiences with the whole package. “Inglourious Basterds” because after all the dirty campaigning, this film might just end up on top. So let’s just say the prediction goes to “Inglourious Basterds”
Possible Contenders: “The Hurt Locker” because it’s the one movie that has so much hype surrounding it and it could be the underground film that surprises and upsets this category.

How do you think some of your predictions will fare? Are there some predictions above that seem totally off? What are your thoughts about the 82nd Annual Oscar nominations this year?
 

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