Happy Friday and welcome to the seventh of ten prediction and analysis articles for the Oscars given out at the upcoming 84th Academy Awards on February 26th. This article spotlights the two male acting categories of Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. One of them is a no-doubter and the other is one of, if not the, closest competitions of the night. No matter who wins, it's going to be good!
Like last year, I offer the categories of snubs and happy nominations to go along with a choice of who should win and who will win. This season, I've been doing my due diligence by tracking what movies and people have won the precursor and lead-up awards to the Oscars on my "2011 Awards Tracker" page. For a full breakdown of earlier 2011-2012 award results, please check that page.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The nominees: Kenneth Branagh (My Week With Marilyn), Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Nick Nolte (Warrior), Christopher Plummer (Beginners), Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
AWARDS TRACKER (number of earlier award wins): 17- Christopher Plummer for Beginners, 15- Albert Brooks for Drive, 1- Kenneth Branagh for My Week with Marilyn, 1- Nick Nolte for Warrior
Who was snubbed: Right there with Shailene Woodley in the female supporting category, the omission of Albert Brooks from Drive might have to be a courtroom matter. As you can tell from the Awards Tracker, he and Christopher Plummer have been trading minor wins all winter, but Plummer pulled away with wins at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards. I don't think he fell enough to not even make the Final 5. His missing name was a big surprise when the nominations were announced back on January 25th. More on the shut-out of Drive in the major categories will come up later.
Happy to be there: Jonah Hill should thank his agent and personal trainer being allowed to walk instead of waddle down the red carpet later this month. Moneyball was all Brad Pitt and all Hill did was receive Pitt's lines and got skinny after the movie. His nomination, just as it was at the Golden Globes, is a joke. He has no business being on this list. Ten or more other supporting male performances (particularly Brooks and even Ryan Gosling in Crazy, Stupid, Love) deserved his spot. Is this Hollywood trying to be hip and younger? Didn't they learn their lesson last year with James Franco and Anne Hathaway's disastrous hosting job?
Who should win and will win: For as much as I enjoyed Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn playing one of his personal heroes in the form of Laurence Olivier, he and everyone else is a longshot to Christopher Plummer for Beginners. This is the easiest and most sure bet of the major awards. Zero drama or doubt is present. This will, and should be, Plummer's standing ovation toast and swan song for a long and brilliant career where he's never been nominated for an Academy Award. Like Jack Palance, James Coburn, Jason Robards, John Gielgud, Don Ameche, Sean Connery, Martin Landau, Jim Broadbent, Michael Caine, Morgan Freeman, and Alan Arkin before him, this is the Academy's favorite place to honor an aging legend for great small roles, but more for their illustrious and unfulfilled resumes. This is an especially easy call with his closest competitor not even in the field. If Brooks were here, a win for him would also match the trend of honoring an older, popular, and un-awarded veteran. Plummer is older than Brooks. Nemo's dad is going to have to keep cracking.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The nominees: Damian Bichir (A Better Life), George Clooney (The Descendants), Jean Dujardin (The Artist), Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy), Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
AWARDS TRACKER (number of earlier award wins): 10- George Clooney for The Descendants, 6- Jean Dujardin for The Artist, 6- Michael Fassbender for Shame, 6- Michael Shannon for Take Shelter, 5- Brad Pitt for Moneyball, 1- Joseph Gordon-Levitt for 50/50, 1- Ryan Gosling for Drive, 1- Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, 1- Paul Giamatti for Win Win
Who was snubbed: Too many to count! You can make the case this year that this Best Actor category could get the 10-instead-of-5 treatment that the Best Picture category has been getting and there wouldn't be an argument. Ryan Gosling could have put himself in this category twice with both Drive and The Ides of March. Brad Pitt could have done the same with The Tree of Life to go with Moneyball. The best actor of his generation to not win an Oscar, Leonardo DiCaprio, can make a strong push for J. Edgar and his Inception co-star Joseph Gordon-Levitt was incredible in 50/50. Finally, Take Shelter's Michael Shannon and Shame's Michael Fassbender has both won just as many minor awards for Best Actor as Jean Dujardin has for The Artist. After that rant, I count twelve extremely worthy nominees in a field that could only hold five. If I could only choose one of those to bump the gentleman appearing next in the "happy to be there" section, it would be Michael Fassbender. The Academy must have turned its conservative nose to his NC-17 turn as a NY sex addict.
Happy to be there: With all of those incredible and award-worthy performances by so many actors this year, Damian Bechir and his role as an immigrant father in A Better Life was David that slayed Goliath just to be here. Like the saying goes, "the nomination is his reward," where he's not going to win, but you have to tip your hat to beating that huge list of snubbed performances to make the final five nominees. Well done and wow!
Who should win: Like the triple Best Actress race, this one is close, but with just two lead horses. This award is between George Clooney for The Descendants and Jean Dujardin for The Artist. Both men were beyond excellent in their roles and either one of them would be worthy winners and make great acceptance speeches. I've stood behind George Clooney's performance all season. He shed his movie star luster to be as emotionally raw as he's ever been in the best performance of his career. George won the Golden Globe for drama, is Hollywood royalty, and, like Denzel Washington winning for Training Day after winning for Glory, deserves to win the lead actor statue after already winning an Oscar as a supporting actor. The numbers and leading amount of minor precursor awards point to that trend coming true, but he might not win.
Who will win: Jean Dujardin carries The Artist on his back. He's the reason why the movie is so beloved and brilliant. Emoting and dancing his way in a silent film role required an entirely different talent level and skill set that his peer cannot match. Voters have noticed that extraordinary effort and he too won the Golden Globe. However, it's his SAG win, voted on by his fellow actors, that gives him the momentum and voting edge over Clooney in the late and close finish. A win for Clooney would be outstanding and validating to this generation's Cary Grant, but a win for Dujardin would bring a Roberto Benigni-level of excitement to the show and honor unique acting.
Some of these nominees and nominated films are still playing at your local west side Chicago theaters. Advance tickets can be purchased at many of those locations via Fandango and MovieTickets.com. Other films are available for rental at your local west side Chicago area Redbox and Blockbuster locations and for purchase at your local west side Chicago Best Buy, Target, and Walmart stores. Stay tuned for my full series of Oscar Prediction articles for 2012. Enjoy!
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