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oscar predications

The Oscars are coming up on Sunday, and I just did a radio show on WZRD with my predications on the winners. Here is a summary of some of my commentaries on the main categories.

Best picture-On my top 10 list, I picked “12 Years a Slave” as my favorite film of the year, and I think it has a good shot at winning. It’s also possible “American Hustle” will win, and it has the best ensemble cast of the year, and it may have the most momentum to win. “Her” was mesmerizing but based on past shows, it’s probably too arty to win. The rest (unless “Dallas Buyer’s Club” overturns the apple cart) are long shots. “Before Midnight (the number two film on my top ten list) was robbed. At first I thought that “Wolf of Wall Street” would be on my top 10 list, but the con artists in “American Hustle” (which I saw later) were much developed characters.

Best actor-Christian Bale (he was the beast Batman) is such a chameleon and transforms himself so completely in “American Hustle” that I did not even recognize him in the film. Bruce Dern (who gave the performance of his career in “Nebraska), and Matthew McConaghey may also win (if “Dallas Buyer’s Club” wins, I think it will be either for acting or its script), but Matt has a better shot. Chiwetel Ejiofor was terrific, but I think he is too unknown to win, and I think DiCaprio is the least likely to win (all the nominees are worthy this year.) Robert Redford was as good as most of the nominees, and I would normally say that he should have made the cut, but I can’t decide which of the nominees he should replace (they’re all excellent.) Although he’s not eligible (because his film was made for TV), Mike Douglas was marvelous in “Beyond the Candelabra.” Some insist that Tom Hanks should have been nominated again but he’s still playing the all American nice guy next door for the umpteenth time (he does not have much range.)

Best actress- Cate Blanchett will win. She has the experience and a weighty enough role to take it. Amy Adams also has a shot, but Jennifer Lawrence almost eclipsed her in “American Hustle.” Still Adams might provide an upset. The rest are very unlikely to win, and they are in less important films. Adèle Exarchopoulos (of “Blue is the Warmest Color”) and Julie Delphy (from “Before Midnight”) should have been nominated instead of Streep or Bullock. Can you say Americentric? Greta Gerwig was also stellar in “Frances Ha.”
Best supporting actor-Jared Leto deserves to win and he will win for his performance as a gay /transgendered AIDs victim with a Marc Bolan fixation. He broke the most new ground, and had great chemistry with Matthew. Anyone else winning would be a great injustice. Adbdi was the best thing about “Captain Phillips,” but he’s still relatively unknown.

Best Supporting actress-Sally Hawkins almost matched Blanchett’s lead performance in “Blue Jasmine,” and June Squibb was wonderful as the salty tongued grandmother in “Nebraska.” I don’t think the rest are in the same league except for the always terrific Jennifer Lawrence who probably will not win a second Oscar two years in a row.
Best Director-Scorsese may be the best living American film maker, but he is long past his prime (his last masterpiece was “Good Fellas.”) Also I think “Wolf of Wall Street” is too divisive (it turned off Puritans and old fogies everywhere for the wrong reasons.) The other three nominees are pretty evenly matched both in quality and chances of winning (although I think Afonso Cuaro’s direction was more responsible for the film’s greatness than the acting, so it would be my pick.) Where are the Coen brothers?

Original Screenplay-All of the nominees are worthwhile, and could possibly win, but I give a slight edge to “Her,” or “Dallas Buyer’s Club.”

Best Adapted screenplay-I would have given it to “Before Midnight,” but “12 Years a Slave” or the less worthy “Wolf of Wall Street” will win.
Best Animated Feature-I have not seen most of the nominees (In general I’m not crazy about family films), but “The Wind Rises’ will probably make my top 10 list next year (It did not open in Chicago until this week), and I usually think that Miyazaki’s film outclass all the other animated features.

Best foreign language film-This is always one of the more troublesome categories. I liked “The Past” better than all the nominated films, but “Great Beauty,” was almost as good.
Best documentary- I did saw “Twenty Feet of Stardom,” “Cutie and the Boxer,” and “Act of Killing,” and the last choice has the strongest chance of winning of the three. I also greatly admired “Black fish” (which was six on my top ten list, as well as Sarah Polley’s “Stories to Tell.”

PS. I was surprised that right wing pundit, Ann Coulter, once did an Oscar column which was reproduced in one of her books which is titled (with her usual diplomacy) “Never Trust a Liberal Over Three” . See http://www.wnd.com/2006/03/35050/. She almost seemed to be proud of the fact that she knew nothing about the nominated films or cinema in general. She also reduced all of the sometimes complex films to one sentence liberal social causes (perhaps she’s eagerly awaiting a remake of “Birth of a Nation.”) She also had not seen any of the nominated films. To be fair she usually is quite clever and witty on both TV and radio (although I disagree with most of her political positionsThe Oscars are coming up on Sunday, and I just did a radio show on WZRD with my predications on the winners. Here is a summary of some of my commentaries on the main categories.

Best picture-On my top 10 list, I picked “12 Years a Slave” as my favorite film of the year, and I think it has a good shot at winning. It’s also possible “American Hustle” will win, and it has the best ensemble cast of the year, and it may have the most momentum to win. “Her” was mesmerizing but based on past shows, it’s probably too arty to win. The rest (unless “Dallas Buyer’s Club” overturns the apple cart) are long shots. “Before Midnight (the number two film on my top ten list) was robbed. At first I thought that “Wolf of Wall Street” would be on my top 10 list, but the con artists in “American Hustle” (which I saw later) were much developed characters.

Best actor-Christian Bale (he was the beast Batman) is such a chameleon and transforms himself so completely in “American Hustle” that I did not even recognize him in the film. Bruce Dern (who gave the performance of his career in “Nebraska), and Matthew McConaghey may also win (if “Dallas Buyer’s Club” wins, I think it will be either for acting or its script), but Matt has a better shot. Chiwetel Ejiofor was terrific, but I think he is too unknown to win, and I think DiCaprio is the least likely to win (all the nominees are worthy this year.) Robert Redford was as good as most of the nominees, and I would normally say that he should have made the cut, but I can’t decide which of the nominees he should replace (they’re all excellent.) Although he’s not eligible (because his film was made for TV), Mike Douglas was marvelous in “Beyond the Candelabra.” Some insist that Tom Hanks should have been nominated again but he’s still playing the all American nice guy next door for the umpteenth time (he does not have much range.)

Best actress- Cate Blanchett will win. She has the experience and a weighty enough role to take it. Amy Adams also has a shot, but Jennifer Lawrence almost eclipsed her in “American Hustle.” Still Adams might provide an upset. The rest are very unlikely to win, and they are in less important films. Adèle Exarchopoulos (of “Blue is the Warmest Color”) and Julie Delphy (from “Before Midnight”) should have been nominated instead of Streep or Bullock. Can you say Americentric? Greta Gerwig was also stellar in “Frances Ha.”
Best supporting actor-Jared Leto deserves to win and he will win for his performance as a gay /transgendered AIDs victim with a Marc Bolan fixation. He broke the most new ground, and had great chemistry with Matthew. Anyone else winning would be a great injustice. Adbdi was the best thing about “Captain Phillips,” but he’s still relatively unknown.

Best Supporting actress-Sally Hawkins almost matched Blanchett’s lead performance in “Blue Jasmine,” and June Squibb was wonderful as the salty tongued grandmother in “Nebraska.” I don’t think the rest are in the same league except for the always terrific Jennifer Lawrence who probably will not win a second Oscar two years in a row.
Best Director-Scorsese may be the best living American film maker, but he is long past his prime (his last masterpiece was “Good Fellas.”) Also I think “Wolf of Wall Street” is too divisive (it turned off Puritans and old fogies everywhere for the wrong reasons.) The other three nominees are pretty evenly matched both in quality and chances of winning (although I think Afonso Cuaro’s direction was more responsible for the film’s greatness than the acting, so it would be my pick.) Where are the Coen brothers?

Original Screenplay-All of the nominees are worthwhile, and could possibly win, but I give a slight edge to “Her,” or “Dallas Buyer’s Club.”

Best Adapted screenplay-I would have given it to “Before Midnight,” but “12 Years a Slave” or the less worthy “Wolf of Wall Street” will win.
Best Animated Feature-I have not seen most of the nominees (In general I’m not crazy about family films), but “The Wind Rises’ will probably make my top 10 list next year (It did not open in Chicago until this week), and I usually think that Miyazaki’s film outclass all the other animated features.

Best foreign language film-This is always one of the more troublesome categories. I liked “The Past” better than all the nominated films, but “Great Beauty,” was almost as good.
Best documentary- I did saw “Twenty Feet of Stardom,” “Cutie and the Boxer,” and “Act of Killing,” and the last choice has the strongest chance of winning of the three. I also greatly admired “Black fish” (which was six on my top ten list, as well as Sarah Polley’s “Stories to Tell.”

PS. I was surprised that right wing pundit, Ann Coulter, once did an Oscar column which was reproduced in one of her books which is titled (with her usual diplomacy) “Never Trust a Liberal Over Three” . See http://www.wnd.com/2006/03/35050/. She almost seemed to be proud of the fact that she knew nothing about the nominated films or cinema in general. She also reduced all of the sometimes complex films to one sentence liberal social causes (perhaps she’s eagerly awaiting a remake of “Birth of a Nation.”) She also had not seen any of the nominated films. To be fair she usually is quite clever and witty on both TV and radio (although I disagree with most of her political positionsThe Oscars are coming up on Sunday, and I just did a radio show on WZRD with my predications on the winners. Here is a summary of some of my commentaries on the main categories.

Best picture-On my top 10 list, I picked “12 Years a Slave” as my favorite film of the year, and I think it has a good shot at winning. It’s also possible “American Hustle” will win, and it has the best ensemble cast of the year, and it may have the most momentum to win. “Her” was mesmerizing but based on past shows, it’s probably too arty to win. The rest (unless “Dallas Buyer’s Club” overturns the apple cart) are long shots. “Before Midnight (the number two film on my top ten list) was robbed. At first I thought that “Wolf of Wall Street” would be on my top 10 list, but the con artists in “American Hustle” (which I saw later) were much developed characters.

Best actor-Christian Bale (he was the beast Batman) is such a chameleon and transforms himself so completely in “American Hustle” that I did not even recognize him in the film. Bruce Dern (who gave the performance of his career in “Nebraska), and Matthew McConaghey may also win (if “Dallas Buyer’s Club” wins, I think it will be either for acting or its script), but Matt has a better shot. Chiwetel Ejiofor was terrific, but I think he is too unknown to win, and I think DiCaprio is the least likely to win (all the nominees are worthy this year.) Robert Redford was as good as most of the nominees, and I would normally say that he should have made the cut, but I can’t decide which of the nominees he should replace (they’re all excellent.) Although he’s not eligible (because his film was made for TV), Mike Douglas was marvelous in “Beyond the Candelabra.” Some insist that Tom Hanks should have been nominated again but he’s still playing the all American nice guy next door for the umpteenth time (he does not have much range.)

Best actress- Cate Blanchett will win. She has the experience and a weighty enough role to take it. Amy Adams also has a shot, but Jennifer Lawrence almost eclipsed her in “American Hustle.” Still Adams might provide an upset. The rest are very unlikely to win, and they are in less important films. Adèle Exarchopoulos (of “Blue is the Warmest Color”) and Julie Delphy (from “Before Midnight”) should have been nominated instead of Streep or Bullock. Can you say Americentric? Greta Gerwig was also stellar in “Frances Ha.”
Best supporting actor-Jared Leto deserves to win and he will win for his performance as a gay /transgendered AIDs victim with a Marc Bolan fixation. He broke the most new ground, and had great chemistry with Matthew. Anyone else winning would be a great injustice. Adbdi was the best thing about “Captain Phillips,” but he’s still relatively unknown.

Best Supporting actress-Sally Hawkins almost matched Blanchett’s lead performance in “Blue Jasmine,” and June Squibb was wonderful as the salty tongued grandmother in “Nebraska.” I don’t think the rest are in the same league except for the always terrific Jennifer Lawrence who probably will not win a second Oscar two years in a row.
Best Director-Scorsese may be the best living American film maker, but he is long past his prime (his last masterpiece was “Good Fellas.”) Also I think “Wolf of Wall Street” is too divisive (it turned off Puritans and old fogies everywhere for the wrong reasons.) The other three nominees are pretty evenly matched both in quality and chances of winning (although I think Afonso Cuaro’s direction was more responsible for the film’s greatness than the acting, so it would be my pick.) Where are the Coen brothers?

Original Screenplay-All of the nominees are worthwhile, and could possibly win, but I give a slight edge to “Her,” or “Dallas Buyer’s Club.”

Best Adapted screenplay-I would have given it to “Before Midnight,” but “12 Years a Slave” or the less worthy “Wolf of Wall Street” will win.
Best Animated Feature-I have not seen most of the nominees (In general I’m not crazy about family films), but “The Wind Rises’ will probably make my top 10 list next year (It did not open in Chicago until this week), and I usually think that Miyazaki’s film outclass all the other animated features.

Best foreign language film-This is always one of the more troublesome categories. I liked “The Past” better than all the nominated films, but “Great Beauty,” was almost as good.
Best documentary- I did saw “Twenty Feet of Stardom,” “Cutie and the Boxer,” and “Act of Killing,” and the last choice has the strongest chance of winning of the three. I also greatly admired “Black fish” (which was six on my top ten list, as well as Sarah Polley’s “Stories to Tell.”

PS. I was surprised that right wing pundit, Ann Coulter, once did an Oscar column which was reproduced in one of her books which is titled (with her usual diplomacy) “Never Trust a Liberal Over Three” . See http://www.wnd.com/2006/03/35050/. She almost seemed to be proud of the fact that she knew nothing about the nominated films or cinema in general. She also reduced all of the sometimes complex films to one sentence liberal social causes (perhaps she’s eagerly awaiting a remake of “Birth of a Nation.”) She also had not seen any of the nominated films. To be fair she usually is quite clever and witty on both TV and radio (although I disagree with most of her political positionsThe Oscars are coming up on Sunday, and I just did a radio show on WZRD with my predications on the winners. Here is a summary of some of my commentaries on the main categories.

Best picture-On my top 10 list, I picked “12 Years a Slave” as my favorite film of the year, and I think it has a good shot at winning. It’s also possible “American Hustle” will win, and it has the best ensemble cast of the year, and it may have the most momentum to win. “Her” was mesmerizing but based on past shows, it’s probably too arty to win. The rest (unless “Dallas Buyer’s Club” overturns the apple cart) are long shots. “Before Midnight (the number two film on my top ten list) was robbed. At first I thought that “Wolf of Wall Street” would be on my top 10 list, but the con artists in “American Hustle” (which I saw later) were much developed characters.

Best actor-Christian Bale (he was the beast Batman) is such a chameleon and transforms himself so completely in “American Hustle” that I did not even recognize him in the film. Bruce Dern (who gave the performance of his career in “Nebraska), and Matthew McConaghey may also win (if “Dallas Buyer’s Club” wins, I think it will be either for acting or its script), but Matt has a better shot. Chiwetel Ejiofor was terrific, but I think he is too unknown to win, and I think DiCaprio is the least likely to win (all the nominees are worthy this year.) Robert Redford was as good as most of the nominees, and I would normally say that he should have made the cut, but I can’t decide which of the nominees he should replace (they’re all excellent.) Although he’s not eligible (because his film was made for TV), Mike Douglas was marvelous in “Beyond the Candelabra.” Some insist that Tom Hanks should have been nominated again but he’s still playing the all American nice guy next door for the umpteenth time (he does not have much range.)

Best actress- Cate Blanchett will win. She has the experience and a weighty enough role to take it. Amy Adams also has a shot, but Jennifer Lawrence almost eclipsed her in “American Hustle.” Still Adams might provide an upset. The rest are very unlikely to win, and they are in less important films. Adèle Exarchopoulos (of “Blue is the Warmest Color”) and Julie Delphy (from “Before Midnight”) should have been nominated instead of Streep or Bullock. Can you say Americentric? Greta Gerwig was also stellar in “Frances Ha.”
Best supporting actor-Jared Leto deserves to win and he will win for his performance as a gay /transgendered AIDs victim with a Marc Bolan fixation. He broke the most new ground, and had great chemistry with Matthew. Anyone else winning would be a great injustice. Adbdi was the best thing about “Captain Phillips,” but he’s still relatively unknown.

Best Supporting actress-Sally Hawkins almost matched Blanchett’s lead performance in “Blue Jasmine,” and June Squibb was wonderful as the salty tongued grandmother in “Nebraska.” I don’t think the rest are in the same league except for the always terrific Jennifer Lawrence who probably will not win a second Oscar two years in a row.
Best Director-Scorsese may be the best living American film maker, but he is long past his prime (his last masterpiece was “Good Fellas.”) Also I think “Wolf of Wall Street” is too divisive (it turned off Puritans and old fogies everywhere for the wrong reasons.) The other three nominees are pretty evenly matched both in quality and chances of winning (although I think Afonso Cuaro’s direction was more responsible for the film’s greatness than the acting, so it would be my pick.) Where are the Coen brothers?

Original Screenplay-All of the nominees are worthwhile, and could possibly win, but I give a slight edge to “Her,” or “Dallas Buyer’s Club.”

Best Adapted screenplay-I would have given it to “Before Midnight,” but “12 Years a Slave” or the less worthy “Wolf of Wall Street” will win.
Best Animated Feature-I have not seen most of the nominees (In general I’m not crazy about family films), but “The Wind Rises’ will probably make my top 10 list next year (It did not open in Chicago until this week), and I usually think that Miyazaki’s film outclass all the other animated features.

Best foreign language film-This is always one of the more troublesome categories. I liked “The Past” better than all the nominated films, but “Great Beauty,” was almost as good.
Best documentary- I did saw “Twenty Feet of Stardom,” “Cutie and the Boxer,” and “Act of Killing,” and the last choice has the strongest chance of winning of the three. I also greatly admired “Black fish” (which was six on my top ten list, as well as Sarah Polley’s “Stories to Tell.”

PS. I was surprised that right wing pundit, Ann Coulter, once did an Oscar column which was reproduced in one of her books which is titled (with her usual diplomacy) “Never Trust a Liberal Over Three” . See http://www.wnd.com/2006/03/35050/. She almost seemed to be proud of the fact that she knew nothing about the nominated films or cinema in general. She also reduced all of the sometimes complex films to one sentence liberal social causes (perhaps she’s eagerly awaiting a remake of “Birth of a Nation.”) She also had not seen any of the nominated films. To be fair she usually is quite clever and witty on both TV and radio (although I disagree with most of her political positionsThe Oscars are coming up on Sunday, and I just did a radio show on WZRD with my predications on the winners. Here is a summary of some of my commentaries on the main categories.

Best picture-On my top 10 list, I picked “12 Years a Slave” as my favorite film of the year, and I think it has a good shot at winning. It’s also possible “American Hustle” will win, and it has the best ensemble cast of the year, and it may have the most momentum to win. “Her” was mesmerizing but based on past shows, it’s probably too arty to win. The rest (unless “Dallas Buyer’s Club” overturns the apple cart) are long shots. “Before Midnight (the number two film on my top ten list) was robbed. At first I thought that “Wolf of Wall Street” would be on my top 10 list, but the con artists in “American Hustle” (which I saw later) were much developed characters.

Best actor-Christian Bale (he was the beast Batman) is such a chameleon and transforms himself so completely in “American Hustle” that I did not even recognize him in the film. Bruce Dern (who gave the performance of his career in “Nebraska), and Matthew McConaghey may also win (if “Dallas Buyer’s Club” wins, I think it will be either for acting or its script), but Matt has a better shot. Chiwetel Ejiofor was terrific, but I think he is too unknown to win, and I think DiCaprio is the least likely to win (all the nominees are worthy this year.) Robert Redford was as good as most of the nominees, and I would normally say that he should have made the cut, but I can’t decide which of the nominees he should replace (they’re all excellent.) Although he’s not eligible (because his film was made for TV), Mike Douglas was marvelous in “Beyond the Candelabra.” Some insist that Tom Hanks should have been nominated again but he’s still playing the all American nice guy next door for the umpteenth time (he does not have much range.)

Best actress- Cate Blanchett will win. She has the experience and a weighty enough role to take it. Amy Adams also has a shot, but Jennifer Lawrence almost eclipsed her in “American Hustle.” Still Adams might provide an upset. The rest are very unlikely to win, and they are in less important films. Adèle Exarchopoulos (of “Blue is the Warmest Color”) and Julie Delphy (from “Before Midnight”) should have been nominated instead of Streep or Bullock. Can you say Americentric? Greta Gerwig was also stellar in “Frances Ha.”
Best supporting actor-Jared Leto deserves to win and he will win for his performance as a gay /transgendered AIDs victim with a Marc Bolan fixation. He broke the most new ground, and had great chemistry with Matthew. Anyone else winning would be a great injustice. Adbdi was the best thing about “Captain Phillips,” but he’s still relatively unknown.

Best Supporting actress-Sally Hawkins almost matched Blanchett’s lead performance in “Blue Jasmine,” and June Squibb was wonderful as the salty tongued grandmother in “Nebraska.” I don’t think the rest are in the same league except for the always terrific Jennifer Lawrence who probably will not win a second Oscar two years in a row.
Best Director-Scorsese may be the best living American film maker, but he is long past his prime (his last masterpiece was “Good Fellas.”) Also I think “Wolf of Wall Street” is too divisive (it turned off Puritans and old fogies everywhere for the wrong reasons.) The other three nominees are pretty evenly matched both in quality and chances of winning (although I think Afonso Cuaro’s direction was more responsible for the film’s greatness than the acting, so it would be my pick.) Where are the Coen brothers?

Original Screenplay-All of the nominees are worthwhile, and could possibly win, but I give a slight edge to “Her,” or “Dallas Buyer’s Club.”

Best Adapted screenplay-I would have given it to “Before Midnight,” but “12 Years a Slave” or the less worthy “Wolf of Wall Street” will win.
Best Animated Feature-I have not seen most of the nominees (In general I’m not crazy about family films), but “The Wind Rises’ will probably make my top 10 list next year (It did not open in Chicago until this week), and I usually think that Miyazaki’s film outclass all the other animated features.

Best foreign language film-This is always one of the more troublesome categories. I liked “The Past” better than all the nominated films, but “Great Beauty,” was almost as good.
Best documentary- I did saw “Twenty Feet of Stardom,” “Cutie and the Boxer,” and “Act of Killing,” and the last choice has the strongest chance of winning of the three. I also greatly admired “Black fish” (which was six on my top ten list, as well as Sarah Polley’s “Stories to Tell.”

PS. I was surprised that right wing pundit, Ann Coulter, once did an Oscar column which was reproduced in one of her books which is titled (with her usual diplomacy) “Never Trust a Liberal Over Three” . See http://www.wnd.com/2006/03/35050/. She almost seemed to be proud of the fact that she knew nothing about the nominated films or cinema in general. She also reduced all of the sometimes complex films to one sentence liberal social causes (perhaps she’s eagerly awaiting a remake of “Birth of a Nation.”) She also had not seen any of the nominated films. To be fair she usually is quite clever and witty on both TV and radio (although I disagree with most of her political positionsThe Oscars are coming up on Sunday, and I just did a radio show on WZRD with my predications on the winners. Here is a summary of some of my commentaries on the main categories.

Best picture-On my top 10 list, I picked “12 Years a Slave” as my favorite film of the year, and I think it has a good shot at winning. It’s also possible “American Hustle” will win, and it has the best ensemble cast of the year, and it may have the most momentum to win. “Her” was mesmerizing but based on past shows, it’s probably too arty to win. The rest (unless “Dallas Buyer’s Club” overturns the apple cart) are long shots. “Before Midnight (the number two film on my top ten list) was robbed. At first I thought that “Wolf of Wall Street” would be on my top 10 list, but the con artists in “American Hustle” (which I saw later) were much developed characters.

Best actor-Christian Bale (he was the beast Batman) is such a chameleon and transforms himself so completely in “American Hustle” that I did not even recognize him in the film. Bruce Dern (who gave the performance of his career in “Nebraska), and Matthew McConaghey may also win (if “Dallas Buyer’s Club” wins, I think it will be either for acting or its script), but Matt has a better shot. Chiwetel Ejiofor was terrific, but I think he is too unknown to win, and I think DiCaprio is the least likely to win (all the nominees are worthy this year.) Robert Redford was as good as most of the nominees, and I would normally say that he should have made the cut, but I can’t decide which of the nominees he should replace (they’re all excellent.) Although he’s not eligible (because his film was made for TV), Mike Douglas was marvelous in “Beyond the Candelabra.” Some insist that Tom Hanks should have been nominated again but he’s still playing the all American nice guy next door for the umpteenth time (he does not have much range.)

Best actress- Cate Blanchett will win. She has the experience and a weighty enough role to take it. Amy Adams also has a shot, but Jennifer Lawrence almost eclipsed her in “American Hustle.” Still Adams might provide an upset. The rest are very unlikely to win, and they are in less important films. Adèle Exarchopoulos (of “Blue is the Warmest Color”) and Julie Delphy (from “Before Midnight”) should have been nominated instead of Streep or Bullock. Can you say Americentric? Greta Gerwig was also stellar in “Frances Ha.”
Best supporting actor-Jared Leto deserves to win and he will win for his performance as a gay /transgendered AIDs victim with a Marc Bolan fixation. He broke the most new ground, and had great chemistry with Matthew. Anyone else winning would be a great injustice. Adbdi was the best thing about “Captain Phillips,” but he’s still relatively unknown.

Best Supporting actress-Sally Hawkins almost matched Blanchett’s lead performance in “Blue Jasmine,” and June Squibb was wonderful as the salty tongued grandmother in “Nebraska.” I don’t think the rest are in the same league except for the always terrific Jennifer Lawrence who probably will not win a second Oscar two years in a row.
Best Director-Scorsese may be the best living American film maker, but he is long past his prime (his last masterpiece was “Good Fellas.”) Also I think “Wolf of Wall Street” is too divisive (it turned off Puritans and old fogies everywhere for the wrong reasons.) The other three nominees are pretty evenly matched both in quality and chances of winning (although I think Afonso Cuaro’s direction was more responsible for the film’s greatness than the acting, so it would be my pick.) Where are the Coen brothers?

Original Screenplay-All of the nominees are worthwhile, and could possibly win, but I give a slight edge to “Her,” or “Dallas Buyer’s Club.”

Best Adapted screenplay-I would have given it to “Before Midnight,” but “12 Years a Slave” or the less worthy “Wolf of Wall Street” will win.
Best Animated Feature-I have not seen most of the nominees (In general I’m not crazy about family films), but “The Wind Rises’ will probably make my top 10 list next year (It did not open in Chicago until this week), and I usually think that Miyazaki’s film outclass all the other animated features.

Best foreign language film-This is always one of the more troublesome categories. I liked “The Past” better than all the nominated films, but “Great Beauty,” was almost as good.
Best documentary- I did saw “Twenty Feet of Stardom,” “Cutie and the Boxer,” and “Act of Killing,” and the last choice has the strongest chance of winning of the three. I also greatly admired “Black fish” (which was six on my top ten list, as well as Sarah Polley’s “Stories to Tell.”

PS. I was surprised that right wing pundit, Ann Coulter, once did an Oscar column which was reproduced in one of her books which is titled (with her usual diplomacy) “Never Trust a Liberal Over Three” . See http://www.wnd.com/2006/03/35050/. She almost seemed to be proud of the fact that she knew nothing about the nominated films or cinema in general. She also reduced all of the sometimes complex films to one sentence liberal social causes (perhaps she’s eagerly awaiting a remake of “Birth of a Nation.”) She also had not seen any of the nominated films. To be fair she usually is quite clever and witty on both TV and radio (although I disagree with most of her political positions