With the Oscars airing on February 26, 2012 on ABC (WOI-Ch.5 here in central Iowa), it's time to make this year's predictions in the movie categories and also Best Director. Who I think will win is in bold type. Who I hope will win is italicized if it differs from who I think will win.
Best Picture:
- The Artist
- The Descendants
- Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
- The Help
- Hugo
- Midnight in Paris
- Moneyball
- The Tree of Life
- War Horse
No movie that has been released on DVD by the time the Academy Awards has aired has ever won Best Picture. If that holds true this year, that eliminates four of the nominees. The Help, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, and The Tree of Life have all been released on DVD. Not that it really matters, The Artist pretty much as this in the bag. The Descendants and Hugo could be in the running, but The Artist has pretty much been dominating the awards circuit. If it fails to win Best Picture, it will definitely be an upset. That being said, as much as I enjoyed The Artist, I really think Hugo is the more deserving film. The movie was amazing on every level, and I can't wait to watch it again when its released on DVD next week.
Best Director:
- Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
- Alexander Payne – The Descendants
- Hugo – Martin Scorsese
- Midnight in Paris – Woody Allen
- The Tree of Life – Terrence Malick
While Alexander Payne did a marvelous job with The Descendants, and Woody Allen and Terrence Malick made stellar returns with Midnight in Paris and The Tree of Life, this comes down to Michel Hazanavicius and Martin Scorsese. While I think Scorsese should be a lock with his amazing vision in bringing Hugo to the screen, this year I think the award will go to Hazanavicius. It's hard to argue against him as he definitely brought a unique vision to the screen.
Animated Feature Film:
- A Cat in Paris
- Chico & Rita
- Kung Fu Panda 2
- Puss in Boots
- Rango
Normally I've seen all of the films in this category. Unfortunately, this year that isn't the case. A Cat in Paris and Chico & Rita are foreign animated films that haven't shown in our area or been released on DVD yet. The notable absence this year is Pixar. Cars 2 didn't get nominated. I think the film was unfairly lambasted by the critics myself. Was it of the level of Up or Toy Story 3? No, but it was still entertaining, and my son loved it. Based on the three I've seen and the buzz I've been hearing, expect Rango to take home the Best Animated Film this year. While it wasn't my favorite animated film of the year, it was visually amazing, and the voice work was impeccable.
Foreign Language Film:
- Bullhead (Belgium)
- Footnote (Israel)
- In Darkness (Poland)
- Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
- A Separation (Iran)
This one is a guess, because I haven't seen any of these films as none of them have been released on DVD or shown in our area. The buzz seems to be in favor of A Separation, an Iranian film about torn between leaving the country to provide a better life for their child or to stay and take care of an ailing parent. Don't count out In Darkness though. It takes place in Poland during the Holocaust and has good word of mouth, too.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
- The Descendants – Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, & Jim Rash
- Hugo – John Logan
- The Ides of March – George Clooney, Grant Heslov, & Beau Williams
- Moneyball – Steven Zailliam, Aaron Sorkin, & Stan Chervin
- Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan
Writing (Original Screenplay):
- The Artist – Michel Hazanavicius
- Bridesmaids – Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
- Margin Call – J.C. Chandor
- Midnight in Paris – Woody Allen
- A Separation – Asghar Farhadi
The writing awards shouldn't have any surprises. Look for the Academy to honor Moneyball in Adapted Screenplay and Woody Allen for Original Screenplay. While I personally feel that Hugo deserves the Best Adapted Screenplay, Moneyball took a movie about baseball statistics and made it a compelling film. The Ides of March could also be a dark horse for this award. I'd also like to see Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig honored for Bridesmaids, but that will never happen.
A complete list of nominations can be found here.
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