Oscar nominations Tuesday - who will make the cut? - San Francisco GLBT Arts

Oscar nominations come out Tuesday and I love to do my part in predicting the nominations in most Academy Award categories.

The most interesting category this year will be Best Picture. Not because there will be surprises, but we won't know Tuesday is its five nominees or ten - or somewhere in between. The rules have changed this year making it a five picture minimum but if a movie gets at least 5% votes as the #1 best picture from Academy members, the category will be extended to up to 10 pictures.

In other categories, I had to remind myself this is not my awards but my predictions. So as hard as it was for me, I had to let take Carey Mulligan off my list for Best Supporting Actress in "Shame" as the buzz around her possible nomination has died down. So Academy, make me wrong and nominate her. It was also hard to include "The Tree of Life" in so many categories as that should actually win the award for Most Overrated Picture of the Year.

And if it were my awards, I would definitely have “Warrior” a contender in many categories. That might easily be the most overlooked movie of the year. And while it seems eligible, “Pariah” has had no promotion or campaigns to get any nominations.

Also, I still wish the Academy would have a Best Ensemble Award, I also wish this year there was a Best Animal. I think the horses in "War Horse" should win that prize and I loved the dog in "The Artist." And ALL of these animals in "We Bought a Zoo" were great!

I also am mad at the Academy for some of their rules. Like recent Golden Globe winner for Best Song Madonna will NOT be considered for her great song "Masterpiece" from "W.E." as the song started to play too late in the end credits. Best Song is often an odd category anyone. It often has songs from foreign films as well as animated pictures. And this is a good category to throw in actors who happen to write songs for their movies. So I combined all of those factors and included songs by Glenn Close and Mary Steenburgen with animated and muppets. Perhaps I should have included the French song from "Hugo" but I decided to take a chance and go with "the little engine that could song" - "Imaginary Friend" from "Olive."

Yes, you haven't seen "Olive" as it's only played at one theatre for one week simply to qualify for Oscars. It's the first movie made entirely on a Smart Phone and it actually made the eligible list for Best Song - so I'm hoping it's Bay Area producers and co-writer/directors sent it to Academy members homes to give their song a chance. By the way, you can download it on iTunes.

A lot of the possible nominees are still in theatres. I’ve enjoyed a lot of them at www.landmarktheatres.com and www.sundancecinemas.com.

BEST PICTURE

The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Ides of March
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
A Separation
Tree of Life
War Horse

Runners-up: Drive, Warrior, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Bridesmaids, Shame

BEST DIRECTOR

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terence Malick, The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Steven Spielberg, War Horse

Runners-up:

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Asghar Farhardi, A Separation
Bennett Miller, Moneyball
Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Michael Shannon, Take Shelter

Runners-up:

Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Gary Oldman, Tinker Taylor Soldier Spy
Ryan Gosling, Ides of March
Demain Bichir, Better Life
Woody Harrelson, Rampart

BEST ACTRESS

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Runners-up:

Keira Knightley, Dangerous Method
Kristin Dunst, Melancholia
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy Mae Marlene
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Charlize Theron, Young Adult

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Runners-up:

Viggo Mortensen, Dangerous Method
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
George Clooney, Ides of March
Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Bernice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastaine, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Olivia Spencer, The Help

Runners-up:

Carey Mulligan, Shame
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Jodie Foster, Carnage
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

50/50
The Artist
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Tree of Life

Runners-up: Bridesmaids, Win Win, Young Adults, Beginners, J. Edgar

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Descendants
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
The Skin I Live In
War Horse

Runners-up: Hugo, The Help, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Ides of March, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

BEST EDITING

The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball

Runners-up: War Horse, Midnight in Paris, Drive, Tree of Life, Contagion

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Artist
Drive
Hugo
Tree of Life
War Horse

Runners-up: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Warrior, Melancholia, Midnight in Paris

BEST MUSICAL SCORE

The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Jane Eyre
War Horse

Runners-up: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Shame, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, The Adventures of Tintin, The Help, Contagion

BEST SONG

Hello Hello from Gnomeo & Juliet
Imaginary Friend from Olive
Lay Your Head Down from Albert Nobbs
Life's a Happy Song from The Muppets
Rainbird from Dirty Girl

Runners-up:

So Long from Winnie the Pooh
Let Me Take You to Rio from Rio
Shelter from Take Shelter
Coeuvr Volant from Hugo
Gathering Stories from We Bought a Zoo
Star Spangled Man from Captain America

BEST COSTUMES

The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
Midnight in Paris
W.E.

Runners-up: Albert Nobbs, My Week with Marilyn, J. Edgar, A Dangerous Method, The Conspirator, The Help, Melancholia, Anonymous, Harry Potter, Bridesmaids

BEST ART DIRECTION