We are starting to hear whispers again that Republican voters want more choices. Can you blame them? The remaining crop of Establishment candidates is not inspiring passion. This is a mediocre field.
Of the four remaining candidates in the race, only Ron Paul is capable of attracting the grass roots energy that will be needed to mount an effective general election campaign against President Obama. More importantly, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum have serious flaws in their resumes that may make them unelectable.
In the case of Newt Gingrich, it is his abysmal favorability rating, especially among Independent voters and women. Republican Establishment operatives have been working overtime to ensure that he is not the nominee because they do not think he can win. Mitt Romney is the father of healthcare reform in Massachusetts, which was the prototype for Obamacare. That fact alone will make it impossible for Romney to differentiate himself from President Obama. Romney received fewer votes this year in several early primary states than he did during his failed 2008 campaign, and his leading opponents in 2008 were not exactly inspiring figures. Romney’s poll numbers are declining rapidly. Republican voters are rejecting Mitt Romney. Finally, Rick Santorum is taking positions that are winning him support among Conservatives but will turn off a lot of Independent voters. His recent rise has to do with the fact that all of the other previously favored conservative candidates dropped out or otherwise imploded, which left him the last man standing. His has not been a particularly inspiring candidacy. Like Romney, Santorum seems to be the choice for people who believe they have nowhere else to go.
Gingrich and Santorum have not been able to get the signatures needed to make it on the ballot in Virginia. Santorum failed to qualify in Indiana as well. Voters are right to wonder how candidates should be taken seriously if they do not even have enough organization to get on the ballots in all fifty states.
Republican turnout has been down in almost all of the early primary states, which is an ominous sign for Republicans. It sends a signal that voters do not like the choices they have been given. Clearly, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum are not exciting Republican voters.
Enter Congressman Ron Paul whom many voters are just starting to get to know. Paul came within about one hundred votes of beating Mitt Romney in Maine, a New England state that should have been a stronghold for Romney, who is a former Governor of Massachusetts. Romney insiders tell me that he was forced to make an unscheduled visit to Maine at the last minute to stave off what was looking like it could be a Ron Paul win. What Romney did to stem the tide when he got there is unclear, but there is rampant speculation that there may have been some questionable electioneering by the Maine GOP. In any event, this was an embarrassing near defeat for Romney and a sign that Paul can turn out his supporters en masse.
While support for the other three contenders is tepid at best, Congressman Paul is drawing thousands of supporters to his campaign rallies around the country (see embedded video). This is occurring despite the fact that the national media has been indifferent or hostile to Congressman Paul. In this Sunday morning interview on CNN for instance, Candy Crowley spent a good portion of the interview asking Congressman Paul about other candidates and challenging his legitimacy as a candidate.
After raising 4.5 million in January, the Paul campaign is on schedule to raise 2 million in its most recent money bomb that will conclude today. Paul has the cash and the national organization to compete everywhere in March, although he is employing a strategic approach to win the most delegates in states where he believes he can do very well. The Paul campaign does not pay attention to the official delegate scorecard released by the media. They believe their actual delegate numbers will turn out to be much higher.
Voters who describe themselves as very conservative have been slow to embrace Dr. Paul. He is not polling well in Southern states. This may be an artifact of the contempt Paul receives from conservative talk radio and FOX News, from which many very conservative voters get their political information. Most of the popular talk radio and television jocks disagree with Congressman Paul’s noninterventionist foreign policy views. They attract listeners by appealing to patriotism, which for a lot of Conservative Americans, is expressed in their support for the military, for Israel, and for the War on Terror. It has been difficult for Congressman Paul to break through this Conservative Establishment firewall, although he is beginning to change some hearts and minds as the wars drag on and Americans are not seeing positive benefits. Paul is running stronger in moderate states like Washington where voters are less influenced by talk radio and FOX News, and get a higher proportion of their news from independent sources on the internet.
Ron Paul's uncanny ability to inspire Americans and the weakness of the rest of the field may indeed still usher in the Age of Ron Paul. As Republican voters continue to be dissatisfied with the other three milquetoast choices, more of them may start to take a closer look at Ron Paul and discover what many voters already appreciate. They may come to the realization that Dr. Paul is the most authentic conservative in the race. Paul’s message of liberty, austerity, reluctant interventionism, and personal responsibility is a sensible position that has mass appeal throughout America. He can win. If Republicans nominate any of the other three candidates, the country may be looking at another four years of President Obama, which would be a depressing outcome for Republican voters. It may be time to choose Ron Paul.
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