COLUMBUS, Ohio (CGE) - Democrats will argue that predictions are not the same as calling a race, but based on the prior accuracy of political pollster Nate Silver's election calculus, three Ohio rookie Democrats voters sent to Congress only two years ago, wisked along on in large part on the broad coattails of historic voter surege that turned an outlier Illinois senator into the nation's current President, will be sitting out the next and 112th Congress, as Buckeye voters this year will instead choose to send their challengers to Washington.
Based on Silver's Sunday District-by-District Election Guide, Jim Renacci (up +5) beats John Boccieri, Steve Stivers (up +9) beats Mary Jo Kilroy and Steve Chabot (up +10) beats Steve Driehaus. Republicans who won't be beneficiaries of the tide of anger toward and resentment of Washington incumbents, mostly Democrats, are Bob Gibbs running against Zack Space (up +3), Tom Ganley running against Betty Sutton (up +16) and Pete Corrigan running against Dennis Kucinich (up +18).
In the party breakdown for Ohio's 18 congressional seats, Democrats hold 10 of them. Come next Wednesday, Silver's statistics say a 11-7 reversal is in the offing.
But when new Census figures are factored into redistricting, Ohio is expected to loose two congressional seats going forward. Depending on which major political party has control of Ohio's apportionment board will determine which two districts are eliminated.
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Comments
The only poll that matters is the one on November 2nd when the American people vote for their next Representative of Ohio's 15th Congressional District.
As the only Pro-Life constitutional conservative in this race, it is very likely that I can win this election. A majority of people know that the Democratic and Republican leadership don't have their best interests in mind. The people of the 15th congressional district are sick of politicians putting their needs ahead of the people.
All I ask is that you compare your principles with the candidate's principles at Project Vote Smart: http://www.votesmart.org/voteeasy/#/state=oh&district=15
David Ryon
2010 Constitution Party Nominee for U.S. COngress
Ohio's 15th Congressional District
www.RyonforCongress.com
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