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Obamacare repeal not likely

The new battle cry for the Tea Party and Republican Party members is now “Repeal and Replace”. It is excellent red meat for the far right base of the party and a good motivator for those opposed to paying higher taxes under any circumstance. The reality however is Obamacare will not be repealed.

Mitt Romney promotes the plan to repeal and replace
Mitt Romney promotes the plan to repeal and replace
Alex Wong/Getty Images
Repeal and Replace
Alex Wong/Getty Images

Could it happen? Yes. Romney could become the next President of the United States and the Republican Party could gain two-thirds majorities in the House and Senate. If all three of these things happen, then the law could be repealed.

Will it happen? No. Despite the huge spending advantage enjoyed by the less the stellar Republican Nominee, Mitt Romney, people in his own party and the mainstream in general just don’t find him very trust worthy or Presidential (even if he thinks it’s his turn).

The House could successfully repeal Obamacare, but it wouldn’t survive the Senate. It only requires a simple majority to get the repeal process going. The House has that covered as there are 242 Republican compared with 191 Democrats. The trouble however is in getting a large enough majority in the Senate, assuming Romney wins in 2012, to render the Democratic opposition irrelevant.

Furthermore, in the event that it makes its way to President Obama’s desk after the elections, Obama would never approve the Repeal of his signature legislation. He would veto any effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act requiring the opposition to obtain a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate.

This means the Republican Party would need 292 seats in the House and 67 seats in the Senate to override a Presidential veto. They’d have to pick up 50 additional seats in the House and not lose any of those currently held. In the Senate, they would need to have a net gain of 26 seats. So their task here is to convince Democrat and Independent defections to help them achieve the numbers needed to override a veto. A very difficult task.

Given this information, it is clear that the calls for repeal are nothing more than an exercise in delivering red meat to a base that suffered a humiliating defeat thanks to a Republican Supreme Court appointee, a further embarrassment.

Undoubtedly the Republican Party will keep trying to chip away at this legislation in much the way they have worked to dismantle Unions and entitlement programs. But they have a big problem: As the benefits of the law begin to take hold in society, even as people continue will undoubtedly complain about the very system they utilize and take for granted, they will also not want Congress to take those benefits away from them.

Remember the healthcare fight or has it already been forgotten?

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