The latest observations from October show that neutral conditions continue across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says “There are only very weak indications for climatic anomalies for this November. The historical skill of tools is quite low in the late fall, especially so during ENSO neutral conditions. The state of soil moisture has little impact on temperatures or precipitation when sun angles are low, and hence does not play a role in this forecast.”
“Overall, the consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.”
The slideshow on the top of the page has the model forecasts.
At this point there are no clear climate signals relating to precipitation or temperature for the month of November so the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast is for an equal chance of above, below, and near normal conditions.
In the longer range for November - January, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast is for above normal temperatures but an equal chance of above, below, and near normal precipitation.
The slideshow on the top of the page has the official forecast maps.
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