Non-tendering Jenks a right, but risky, move for the White Sox

In the least surprising news of the week, the White Sox almost certainly will non-tender Bobby Jenks before tomorrow's contract-tendering deadline.

It's the right move for the White Sox to make. Whether it's correlated to questions about his conditioning, Jenks has proven to be injury-prone over the last few seasons. And he's due for a raise off his $7.5 million 2010 salary. There aren't many closers that are worth ~$9 million. Jenks isn't one of them.

But here's why letting Jenks go is dangerous: All his advanced numbers point in the direction of a rebound year in terms of results.

In 2010, Jenks posted his highest strikeout ratio (10.42 K/9) since his rookie year, his lowest FIP since 2006, his lowest xFIP of his career, and his best ground ball/fly ball ratio of his career. Those are all good numbers that tell the story of a a good season for things Jenks could control.

For things Jenks couldn't necessarily control, though, he was burned. The two big "luck" stats for pitchers—BABIP and left-on-base percentage—killed Jenks in 2010. Opponents had a .368 BABIP against Jenks, a number that, regardless of Jenks' command yips, is unsustainable.

Furthermore, Jenks stranded 65.4 percent of baserunners, down about eight percent from his career average. In other words, about one in every three runners Jenks allowed to reach base scored; for his career, that average was about one in every five.

Jenks will resurface in 2011, and he'll likely resurface as a setup man signed on the cheap who's out to prove he can still get the job done. If Jenks pitches well in 2011 as a setup man, chances are he could see a nice, fat contract come his way to close following the year.

Losing Jenks won't come back to bite the White Sox no matter how well he pitches, because again, non-tendering Jenks is the right move for the White Sox. It's just too bad they can't keep him around, because despite his conditioning issues, he's still a damn good pitcher who will be an asset to whatever team he catches on with in 2011.

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Links:

• Be sure to take a few minutes to rate all of Kenny Williams' trades over at Sox Machine.
• ChicagoNow's servers were down when I wrote this post, but James has a new post up on Paul Konerko that's probably pretty good along with a wrap-up of Blastro's season.
• Here's a unique viewpoint: Jeff Perro, the Birmingham Barons' clubhouse manager, has a blog now. Check him out on twitter, too.
• Secondhalfadjustments at South Side Sox reviews how the Sox can fill their position holes.
• Josh Phegley had his spleen removed and is recovering well, says Mark Gonzales (via The Wizard at Sox Bronze Titan). Let's hope this puts an end to Phegley's horrible run of health problems and gives him a real chance to justify his high 2009 draft selection.
• While we're at it, I'm going to offer Kanye West $100 to perform at my birthday party.