NOAA releases August hurricane outlook; near to below normal season

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA)  released its August hurricane outlook, and now expects a near to below normal hurricane season.

NOAA -MAY HURRICANE OUTLOOK-

9-14 TOTAL NAMED STORMS

4-7 HURRICANES

1-3 MAJOR HURRICANES

NOAA-AUGUST HURRICANE OUTLOOK-

7-11 TOTAL NAMED STORMS

3-6 HURRICANES

1-2 MAJOR HURRICANES

 NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service,  predicts a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a below-normal season, and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season.

During an average season, there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph, of which six become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater and two of those become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.

The slow start, due to the development of El Nino, has caused hurricane forecasters to further decrease their previous predictions for this hurricane season.

The lead season hurricane forecaster at  NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, Gerry Bell said,

El Niño continues to develop and is already affecting upper-level atmospheric pressure and winds across the global tropics.  

El Niño produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms.

Earlier this week, the Colorado State University storm research team, led by  Hurricane Researcher William Gray, cut their forecast for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.