No missiles for Iran, but more missiles for Syria: Why does Russia do this?

Last week, Russia canceled its contract to sell Iran some S-300 missiles.  The S-300 is a sophisticated system that tracks and destroys incoming planes and missiles.  It is a defensive weapon – a shield to blunt an attack.  It is not a sword – an offensive weapon.  Russia canceled the contract at the urging of the US and Israel.  According to Moscow sources, Russia’s contract with Iran was worth $800 million US.

Wow.  President Obama’s ‘Reset’ policy with Russia seems to be working. 

Then Russia dropped the other shoe.  Later in the very same week that it announced that it had cancelled its S-300 contract with Iran, Russia announced that it is selling Syria  advanced shore to ship missiles .

Syria does not need shore to ship missiles, but its Lebanese ally Hezbollah certainly could use them.  Since it regularly gives Hezbollah its missiles, selling Syria advanced shore to ship missiles means that Hezbollah will soon have new missiles.

Hezbollah is Iran’s proxy.  Sitting on Israel’s northern border, Hezbollah will attack the Jewish state if Iran orders it.

In canceling its S-300 missile contract, Russia made Iran more vulnerable to Israel.  In selling missiles to Syria, it made Israel more vulnerable to Iran. 

So, on whose side is Russia?  According to Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili, it is on everyone’s side, and no one’s.  It is furthering its own interests by stirring up some trouble.

Why would Russia stir up trouble?  How would it benefit? 

For many years, Russia’s policy objectives in the Near East has been to sew conflict.  In 1948, when Russia was the Soviet Union, Stalin armed the Zionists who were fighting the British to disrupt English regional dominance.  In 1956, it armed the Nasser and his Pan Arabists.  Later, they got maximum disruption by sponsoring the secular Palestinian nationalists who blathered Marxist drivel.  As in 1948, turmoil in the Near East further Russia’s interests because it weakens the West which seeks regional calm and tranquility so that you and I can fill-up our gas guzzling SUVs.

But disruption also has immediate economic benefits. 

Russia is number 8 in the world in known oil deposits.  Yet, it is number 2 in oil exports.  The only country that exports more oil is oily Saudi Arabia.  But, Iran has more oil.  It is number 3 in the world in known oil deposits.  Yet, due to sanctions, it has trouble selling its crude.  Due to sanctions, it even is having trouble refining its oil. 

Russia’s economy is based on oil.  After all, when was the last time you bought something manufactured in Russia?  Turmoil in Iran leads to sanctions.  Sanctions lead to fewer barrels of Iranian crude on the world market.  Fewer barrels of Iranian crude leads to higher prices for Russian oil.

There is another Russian economic benefit for a West in conflict with Iran.  This one has a geo-strategic twist. 

Iran sits on the south side of the Caspian Sea.  Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are just north of it.  Along the north Side of the Caspian is Kazakhstan.  Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have huge reserves of oil.  Turkmenistan has huge reserves of gas.  But, these three resource rich nations are transport poor.  To export their wares, they need a pipeline.

The most direct and efficient pipeline for these energy rich countries is through Iran.  But, due to its conflict with the West, that pipeline is not feasible.  The next possible route into Europe is through the South Caucasus, then Turkey.  But, that route has its challenges too, which brings us to the third route to Europe: Through Russia.  Conflict with Iran not only raises the price of oil, but increases Russian control of all of Eurasia’s oil.

But, there is another benefit to conflict.  It involves Georgia.  My, how the Near East slips and slides into the affairs of the Caucasus.

Georgia has left Russia’s sphere of influence.  More than anyone else in the region, it is trying hard at becoming a democracy with a market economy, and not a Russian dominated, stupid, despotic corrupt police state oligarchy led economic basket-case.  Russia’s policy is to isolate Georgia.

Georgia’s most important backer is the US.  But, in furthering conflict between the US and Iran, the US then becomes increasingly dependent on Russia.  If we do not want Russia to sell Iran more technology, then we must convince them to cooperate.  If we want sanctions to be effective, we need Russia’s cooperation. 

Russia is cooperating with the US in isolating Iran.  But, it has come at a price.  We are cooperating with Russia in isolating Georgia.

Georgia’s army was annihilated in its 2008 war with Russia.  They have yet to rearm.  The US had been ready to help rebuild Georgia’s army.  But, we bought Russia’s deal.  They are cooperating with us in Iran, and we are abandoning Georgia.