While Iowa is notorious for selecting benchwarmers, the stakes in 2012 are simply too high to take chances, and, as things stand now, this is Newt Gingrich’s race to lose.
According to Rasmussen, Newt has carved himself an astonishing 32% piece of the Iowa pie, leaving Romney with 19% and Cain with 13%.
In addition, a new Fox News Poll of Republicans nationally puts Newt at 23% to Romney’s 22%, and Cain’s 15%. But the difference between Newt and Romney in this poll is negligible, although encouraging for Newt's supporters.
In truth, Romney is steering clear of the Iowa caucuses this year. He’d poured his heart, soul and a lot of cash into a hoped-for win there in 2008, but landed a second place finish behind Huckabee. So, not being in it makes it tough to win it.
While now moving well ahead, Newt's campaign and his past record are not without blemishes. His first campaign team found his approach too casual, and considered his cruise with wife Calista to be political heresy, so the members walked out. But he’s said all along that his campaign is modeled after the tortoise, whose slow but steady forward movement would help him rise at a measured, constant rate after each of the debates.
True, he’s become the heir of support hemorrhaging from fellow conservatives who’ve fallen to gaffes, mistakes and dubious scandals, but his slow-and-steady strategy has paid off and in a big way.
His tactics have been buttressed in part by the rise and fall of Bachmann, Perry and Cain. Bachmann and Perry peaked quickly and couldn’t sustain their momentum because of numerous missteps. Cain is hamstrung by dubious allegations of sexual harassment.
But with a new campaign team and having patched up his mea culpa with Paul Ryan after dissing Ryan’s Medicare plan on Meet the Press, he’s gaining remarkable momentum after having endured a season in purgatory. He’s kept on keeping on, and now has what appears to be an insurmountable lead in Iowa.
But Iowa is a unique state that takes its politics very seriously and there are some who claim Newt’s mach 5 rise to the top is artificial, although they agree he has a substantial lead, but not perhaps as big as the polls show.
That Newt has debated as well as he has is responsible in no small way for his success. It’s lifted him to heights he didn’t anticipate this soon. With eight or nine candidates, each given a minute or thirty seconds to explain their policies, it’s amazing that anyone gets their points across. But Newt has finally mastered the ability to say a lot with fewer words, and he’s benefitted.
For Newt, a 13% Iowa lead will be his to lose. When one rises in the ranks, especially this much and this fast, the leftist mainstream media will assail him like caged birds attacking a mirror. But Newt has answered well those who’ve tried to lambast him, and the criticisms have been many but short on proof.
He’s mitigated most of them by wisely airing them himself first. He's been quick to admit his inability to get a handle on the institution of marriage. He finally figured it out when he married Calista, his third wife. He’s become a Catholic, and he’s atoned for his marital sins.
His credit line with Tiffany’s is, to this correspondent, nobody’s damn business and should be in no way a bar to his winning the presidency.
But, the attack du jour is his relationship with Freddie Mac (now emboriled in a bonus imbroglio), a client of Gingrich Group. Newt is quick to point out that unlike consultants in other such consulting firms, he never lobbied Congress or the White House for Freddie or anyone else. He gave Freddie advice over a period of years for a substantial fee that the people at Gingrich Group are digging from their books now to provide the truth to counter media claims constitute astronomically high compensation.
But, according to Newt, the group’s fees were slightly below the median among fee schedules of competing consulting firms. And, constrained by confidentiality, he can’t give the exact details of his counsel to Freddie, but he did warn them about the burgeoning housing bubble in 2007 when mortgages were given out like Halloween candy. They didn’t heed his advice. Others agreed with him, but neither they nor Newt could have foreseen the economic collapse of 2008, and Newt admits he missed it.
He fully confesses that his couch scene with Pelosi to condemn global warming back when he was Speaker of the House was “the stupidest thing I’ve ever done.” He does support green energy, but doesn't embrace the man-made global-warming myth.
In sum, his gaffes, foibles and miscues he freely admits, and has been humbled by them. But they comprise the essence of the old Newt, who resigned his speakership and his political career under a cloud of hypocrisy. While he was having an affair of his own, he went after Clinton for his sexual antics with Monica Lewinsky. But as he told Greta Van Susteren, turning to God has given him a maturity he lacked when he was in office.
What is for certain is that he really is the smartest man in the room. He knows Washington, D.C. better than anyone in the GOP race. He won’t be manipulated by or tolerate lobbyists. Herman Cain and others’ claims that what Washington needs is a non-politician are, given the state of the country, false. Someone wet behind the ears dropped into the midst of the capital’s snake pit is the worst choice for the next president.
Washington needs someone with considerable experience because those who have been deeply involved know where the pressure points are. None of the other candidates can come close to matching Newt’s knowledge and experience. And voters seem to be coming around to the idea that experience is a sine qua non for anyone replacing Obama.
Newt’s proven his ability to reach across the aisle by passing a balanced budget four years in a row under Democratic president, Bill Clinton, the last year resulting in a surplus. He puts country over party and career. He’s written 24 books, and he honestly believes he can fix what’s broken and put us in a more competitive stance in the global economy. He’ll lock down the border and work on responsible immigration reform.
His policies to get the economy going again are substantive, and he knows how to make them work. He understands foreign policy far better than do any of his competitors and he knows how to deal with Iran. He’ll clip the EPA’s wings, trim some of the departments in the Executive branch and push forward with domestic oil and gas production while pursuing green energy, as well. He also knows how to wield power in the capital, and if he wins the White House and the GOP takes both houses of Congress, there will be some major changes coming, and much for the better.
Since he’s been vetted repeatedly and his career dragged over the coals by a vitriolic and hostile mainstream press, he shares an “already vetted” shield with Romney, who was well scrutinized in 2008. So, there are not likely to be any surprises because his detractors have been relentless and thorough in their digging to launch attacks, but they've benn unable to prove anything of substance.
A win in Iowa will put Gingrich on the map. New Hampshire belongs to Romney, so Newt’s smartest strategy would be to plant himself in and build an organization throughout South Carolina, which a neighbor to Georgia, Newt’s home state.
The Palmetto state is considered the “kingmaker” because it gives real momentum to the winner of Iowa or the winner of New Hampshire (which are usually two different candidates). With limited resources (which will grow expansively if he wins Iowa), Newt needs to plan wisely.
If he takes Iowa and South Carolina, the cash will pour in and he will be the rare breed of candidate who’s popular with the big four constituencies: conservatives, the TEA Party, independents and the GOP establishment. Romney’s recent rejection of a speaking invitation offered by a TEA Party contingent was a huge mistake. That helps Newt further. So, taken together, his broadening support base could quite possibly make him the man to beat for the nomination.
Update: A new Fox News Poll now has Gingrich pulling even with Romney in New Hampshire. While that's remarkable, given his current financial resoucres, Newt is likely wiser to focus on South Carolina, but have his campaign set up a volunteer organization in New Hampshire and spend some of his time there. If he loses New Hampshire but sets himself up well in South Carolina, it's an insurance policy.
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