Barring an unforeseen change from the Cleveland front office, the Cavaliers will make Duke point guard Kyrie Irving the No. 1 selection in the 2011 NBA Draft on June 23.
Many draft experts have already labeled the draft as relatively underwhelming, especially after North Carolina's Harrison Barnes, Ohio State's Jared Sullinger and Baylor's Perry Jones decided to return to school. But while the draft will not make anyone forget about the 2003 class, Irving is the real deal and could very well be the next in a long line of young point guards taking over the league.
But just how good can Irving be? Does he have a chance to obtain Chris Paul-like status or will he just be a nice player in an otherwise weak draft, much like No. 1 picks Andrew Bogut and Andrea Bargnani were in 2005 and 2006?
Irving's measurables do not compare to that of a John Wall, Russell Westbrook or Derrick Rose, but his 6-foot, 3.5-inch, 190-pound frame is almost identical to that of Utah's Deron Williams, and his reach is longer than Paul's. Irving does not project as a lockdown defender and will not guard many shooting guards at the next level, but his size is not an issue, especially with his quickness and strength.
So while his size is not that of a Rose or Westbrook, Irving will make his money (and fantasy numbers) doing what those two point guards do best: driving in the lane and getting to the free throw line.
Limited to just 11 games because of a toe injury, Irving still managed to get to the line 69 times, including 16 on the biggest stage on national television against then-No. 6 Michigan State. He is an excellent dribbler and can get to the paint at will, and when he is there has great control that allows him to finish. When fouled, Irving was almost automatic from the free throw line, making over 90 percent of his attempts from the charity stripe. This will serve him well at the next level, and fantasy owners will be glad to see him there.
As good as Irving is getting to the line once he drives, he also has a knack for kicking passes out to shooters. While there aren't many great shooters in Cleveland (which we will get to later), Irving should hover around four or five assists in his rookie year, which is more than enough to get by, especially with his scoring ability.
That ability to score also includes outside shooting, where Irving shot an incredible 46 percent from beyond the arc at Duke. While it was a small sample size, there's no denying that Irving will shoot (and make) from the outside at the next level. Expect him to make close to one three-pointer per game in a more open NBA offense.
The situation in Cleveland can not get much worse, which means Irving will step into the starter's role from day one. Much like Wall's situation in Washington (averaging 37 minutes per game), Irving will get as much time on the court as needs to become acclimated to the NBA. The Cavaliers need a new face for their franchise, and that means fans will get to see Irving learn on the go, which means more numbers for fantasy owners.
Current Cleveland point guards Baron Davis and Ramon Sessions are both under contract for two more seasons and, while Davis' contract is almost impossible to move, Sessions could be on the trading block this summer. It may not help his NBA career to be stuck in Cleveland, but Irving moves into a great fantasy situation with the Cavaliers.
Antwan Jamison, Daniel Gibson, Manny Harris and Anthony Parker are the best outside shooters in Cleveland, and J.J. Hickson and Anderson Varejao provide stability in the front court. It's not much, but all that means is more possessions that will run through Irving.
Cleveland also holds the fourth overall pick in the draft and is expected to target a forward or center after it selects Irving. Kentucky's Enes Kanter, Lithuania's Jonas Valanciunas or the Czech Republic's Jan Vesley are all options, but are all projects and will not affect Irving one way or another. Kanter is the most NBA-ready body of those three players.
Overall, Irving's ceiling is high and his playing time should be ample in Cleveland. While the supporting cast is a couple years away from competing for any sort of playoff berth, Irving will be worthy of a selection on draft day.
A hypothetical statline for Irving looks something like 16 points on 46 percent shooting, 5 assists, 3 rebounds, 1 three pointer and 90 percent from the free throw line.
This list of the top 25 point guards has him ranked as the No. 19 court general for 2011, over the likes of Darren Collison and Raymond Felton. That would put him somewhere between the eighth and ninth rounds of 10-team fantasy drafts.
Consider that a steal, because Irving is for real.
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