Earnhardt Jr could not keep up with his teammates in 2009 (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
The time has arrived for the annual preseason projections, where in my case, are often less than accurate. Nevertheless, I will endeavor, once again, a full field projection, starting from the back, working my way to the front, similar to sluggish qualifiers Matt Kenseth and Jeff Burton.
20. 83-Brian Vickers, Red Bull Toyota- Red Bull Racing
2009 projection- 18th
2009 results- 12th
Vickers qualified for the Chase for the Championship in 2009 following a mid-season surge that propelled him past the likes of Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth. Unfortunately, the momentum Vickers accrued during the summer months vanished once the championship chase began. In fact, he became the first chase driver not to score a single top ten in any of the chase races. Vickers will have his work cut out for him if he intends to return to the twelve-man show. I just do not believe that this team is resilient enough to fend off a RCR, Roush Fenway, and Kyle Busch resurgence.
19. 9-Kasey Kahne, Budweiser Ford- Richard Petty Motorsports
2009 projection- 16th
2009 results- 10th
Kahne hopes to break an unsettling trend. He has yet to qualify for the Chase for the Championship in successive seasons. In fact, the last time he qualified for the Chase in
2006, he followed the season up with perhaps the worst year of his career. The fact that Kahne is in a contract year with an organization that appears unsettled, it is difficult to envision another Chase appearance. However, I do believe he will be close to Chase contention for much of the season. Like Vickers and Red Bull Racing, I just do not see this team as a huge threat to the more powerful organizations in 2010.
18. 29-Kevin Harvick, Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet- Richard Childress Racing
2009 projection- 6th
2009 results- 19th
Harvick is a difficult driver to forecast. I believe that his contract status will determine how well this team performs. A formidable start to the season could work wonders for Harvick and this team. If that is the case, I believe that there is a possibility that Harvick will remain with RCR and the combination could enjoy a stellar season, similar to 2006. If they come out of the gate lethargically, it is going to be a challenging season for Harvick and company, as he will have to deal with a litany of questions regarding his future. Harvick capped off the 2009 campaign with a third place finish, so he has a little momentum, but I will take the wait and see approach when it comes to the driver of the No. 29 Chevrolet.
17. 00-David Reutimann, Aaron’s/Tums Toyota- Michael Waltrip Racing
2009 projection- 23rd
2009 results- 16th
Reutimann, also known as ‘the franchise’, was one of the pleasant surprises of the 2009 Sprint Cup season. He captured his first Cup win on one of NASCAR’s biggest and brightest stages, the Coca Cola 600. Granted, the race was rain-shortened, but a win is a win. Reutimann was steady throughout the season. He is benefiting from the continuous advancement and enrichment within the Michael Waltrip Racing establishment. Expect Reutimann to continue as the top performing driver from the MWR stables, and the organization’s best bet to qualify for the Chase for the Championship.
16. 88-Dale Earnhardt Jr- Amp Energy/National Guard Chevrolet- Hendrick Motorsports
2009 projection- 8th
2009 results- 25th
For Junior Nation, it is difficult to imagine a season as trying as Earnhardt Jr’s 2009 campaign. From Daytona in February to Homestead in November, the season was a chaotic train wreck. Meanwhile, Earnhardt Jr watched his three teammates contend for wins, as well as the title. Earnhardt Jr encountered a glut of rotten luck and had to drive some ill handling cars, but there were many races in which driver error was the cause of a subpar finish. In 2010, expect Earnhardt Jr to exhibit marked improvement, as he occasionally displayed flashes of speed throughout the latter half of the season. I would not be surprised if Earnhardt Jr clawed his way into the Chase; conversely, I would not be surprised if he missed it either.
15. 20-Joey Logano, The Home Depot Toyota- Joe Gibbs Racing
2009 projection- 25th
2009 results- 20th
I still believe that Joe Gibbs Racing rushed Logano into the Cup Series; however, he handled it better than I anticipated. He was inconsistent for most of the season, but when he had a fast car, he was able to keep it towards the front. He is only going to improve as he gains experience. He is not ready to seriously contend for the title, but I believe that he will have a shot at the twelve-man Chase once September rolls around. A couple of wins is not too far-fetched.
14. 42-Juan Pablo Montoya, Target Chevrolet- Earnhardt Ganassi Racing
2009 projection- 21st
2009 results- 8th
Montoya ‘points-raced’ his way into the Chase before he unleashed his typical aggressive nature. Montoya is one of the most talented drivers in the sport, and now that he has balanced his aggression and improved his car control, he is a force on the track. If he drove for Hendrick, Gibbs, or Roush, he would be a perennial title contender. His Earnhardt-Ganassi team discovered a balance that suited Montoya, and he seemed to improve each week. I question if this team can continue to hold their ground against teams with more advanced resources. When NASCAR begins to phase-in the spoilers, the operations with the deeper pockets will benefit. Montoya made have a difficult time repeating last year’s successes.
13. 33-Clint Bowyer, Cheerios Chevrolet- Richard Childress Racing
2009 projection- 14th
2009 results- 15th
Bowyer was the top performing driver out of the RCR stables for much of the 2009 season, which is impressive considering the fact that he was shifted to the new team within the company. Bowyer will be a player in the race to the Chase in 2010. Bowyer has the potential to emerge as a weekly contender, similar to his former rookie rival Denny Hamlin, but RCR must continually stay ahead of the curve. It seems as if RCR falls a few steps behind Hendrick, Roush, and Gibbs every two or three years before they close the gap.
12. 39-Ryan Newman, U.S. Army Chevrolet- Stewart Haas Racing
2009 projection- 19th
2009 results- 9th
I will concede that Newman proved me wrong in 2009. I did not feel as if he made the right move when he signed with Stewart-Haas Racing. Nonetheless, Newman was one of the more consistent drivers throughout the season, and always got the most out of his car. It was clear that Newman had a ball teaming up with his buddy Tony Stewart, and it appeared as if they pushed each other to be better. Newman was a step or so behind Stewart, and needs to find a way to lead more laps and contend for more wins. Newman was consistently among the bottom half of the top ten.
The Race to the Chase is going to be interesting. I think you will see a tight race between Newman, Bowyer, Montoya, and Logano once we arrive at Richmond in September. Earnhardt Jr and Reutimann, as well as Harvick, could be in the picture as well.
11. 31-Jeff Burton, Caterpillar Chevrolet- Richard Childress Racing
2009 projection- 9th
2009 results- 17th
Burton inaudibly came alive towards the latter portion of the season. In fact, he finished the season with three top five finishes within the final four races. Burton and his RCR team will lead the RCR revival. He is too consistent to miss the Chase for a second consecutive season, especially if RCR has righted the ship. Burton should return to victory lane, as well as the Chase for the Championship in 2010.
Comments