Keselowski optimistic about joining Penske (AP Photo/Mike McCarn)
The time has arrived for the annual preseason projections, where in my case, are often less than accurate. Nevertheless, I will endeavor, once again, a full field projection, starting from the back, working my way to the front, similar to sluggish qualifiers Matt Kenseth and Jeff Burton.
30. 98-Paul Menard, Menard’s Ford- Richard Petty Motorsports
2009 projection- 29th
2009 results- 31st
Menard joined the Yates Racing group in 2009, only to watch the besieged team fuse with Richard Petty Motorsports. Rumors persisted that the Menards were considering relocation to another team; however, they ultimately decided to ride out the 2010 season under the RPM umbrella. The fact that they spent time in the rumor mill indicated that the Menards were not thrilled with the RPM deal, which could prove as a hindrance throughout the transitioning phase. Unfortunately, it appears as if Menard will only display marginal improvement, if any at all in 2010.
29. 82-Scott Speed, Red Bull Toyota- Red Bull Racing
2009 projection- 27th
2009 results- 35th
Despite having the ideal racing last name, Speed was rather sluggish throughout most of the 2009 campaign. In all fairness, he was a rookie with a relatively young team. Additionally, Speed is an open-wheel transfer, and his convert is a work in progress, as it has been with most open wheel veterans who try their hand in NASCAR. Based on the progression of A.J. Allmendinger, Red Bull’s former driver, Speed should begin to display observable signs of improvement around mid-season. For Speed’s sake, let us hope that Red Bull Racing does not dump him while he is still in the developing stages, as was the case with Allmendinger in 2008.
28. 19-Elliott Sadler, Stanley Tools Ford- Richard Petty Motorsports
2009 projection- 24th
2009 results- 26th
It seems like a lifetime ago when Sadler qualified for the inaugural Chase for the Championship in 2004. The affable veteran has seen his results swiftly decline since his career year. Sadler is at a point to where it is now or never. He is no longer a rising start. Drivers within the same tier, such as Casey Mears, are out of quality rides, and if Sadler continues to perform at a lackluster pace, he will quickly find himself in a similar state of affairs. The 2010 season is ‘make or break’ for Sadler, as his contract expires at season’s end.
27. 77-Sam Hornish Jr, Mobil 1 Dodge- Penske Racing
2009 projection- 35th
2009 results- 28th
If Juan Pablo Montoya’s 2009 season is any indication, this should be the season in which Hornish becomes a stock car star. The three-time IRL champion has struggled with car control since joining the Sprint Cup series full-time in 2008. However, he displayed discernible progress, as he scored seven top ten finishes, which is seven more than he scored in his rookie season. Hornish should continue to improve, and having another up and coming driver in Brad Keselowski as a teammate could push him even harder. Hornish will probably post more top five finishes and top ten finishes in 2010, but I still question his uniformity.
26. 6-David Ragan, UPS Ford- Roush Fenway Racing
2009 projection- 13th
2009 results- 27th
After missing the Chase for the Championship by a fraction in 2008, he was projected to materialize as the breakout driver in 2009. Instead, he reverted to his inconsistent ways that plagued him as a rookie. The issues within the Roush group affected Ragan more so than his veteran teammates, which is not surprising. The organization should experience an upswing, which means that Ragan should improve upon his 2009 results. However, if he continues to underachieve, Jack Roush has a couple of hungry young drivers in the Nationwide Series that would jump at the opportunity to drive the No. 6.
25. 43-A.J. Allmendinger, Best Buy Ford- Richard Petty Motorsports
2009 projection- 36th
2009 results- 24th
Allmendinger is like any other young driver in development- he needs stability. He has yet to experience that feeling since joining the Sprint Cup series. If RPM can put down roots and figure out a permanent game plan, Allmendinger could surface as a star in this sport. Over the past two years, his potential is manifest; he just cannot seem to put together a string of consistency. The latest RPM/Yates merger is full of uncertainty, and it will be interesting to see if it enhances this team’s results.
24. 56-Martin Truex Jr, NAPA Auto Parts Toyota- Michael Waltrip Racing
2009 projection- 20th
2009 results- 23rd
Truex’s tenure with DEI/EGR was a rollercoaster ride indeed. He enjoyed some solid showings, including his first Cup victory; however, there were just as many, if not more, disappointments while driving the No. 1 Chevrolet. Truex made a career altering decision by signing with Michael Waltrip Racing, a team that many feel is on the rise. Based on the performance of Marcos Ambrose and David Reutimann, Truex has sound reason for optimism. With that said, I believe Truex is a long shot to qualify for the Chase.
23. 1-Jamie McMurray, Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet- Earnhardt Ganassi Racing
2009 projection- 17th
2009 results- 22nd
McMurray departed Chip Ganassi Racing for Roush Fenway Racing with the aspirations of chasing championships. Four years later, he reunites with Ganassi in hopes of salvaging his career. McMurray failed to live up to the soaring expectations placed before him at Roush. Nevertheless, McMurray refused to burn bridges with his former employer. The circumstances surrounding Ganassi is much different than it was in 2005, so do not expect McMurray to pick up where he left off before he jumped ship. He will enjoy some competitive runs, but it will not be every week.
22. 12-Brad Keselowski, Penske Racing (Verizon Wireless-based scheme) Dodge
2009 projection- 42nd
2009 results- 38th
The brash young driver felt disinclined to wait around for Mark Martin’s retirement party before stepping into a Sprint Cup ride. Keselowski is ready to face the big boys, as he is set to join the Penske Racing team. Keselowski is one of the most talented drivers to come along in recent years, but I do not think he will be much of a threat to qualify for the Chase just yet. He is about a year or so away. There is a huge difference in jumping into Hendrick equipment in the Nationwide Series and jumping in Penske equipment in the ultra-competitive Cup Series. Still, Keselowski will raise plenty of eyebrows in 2010 and beyond.
21. 47-Marcos Ambrose, Little Debbie/Lance Snacks/Kleenex Toyota- JTG Daughtery Racing (in alliance with Michael Waltrip Racing)
2009 projection- 32nd
2009 results- 18th
Do not let this fool you. I fully expect Ambrose to have a solid season, perhaps better than last year. It was difficult to project the order of the drivers from 12th to 21st, as they are all fully capable of contending for a spot in the Chase. You cannot deny his road racing prowess, and his performances on the ovals dramatically improved. This team benefited from the technical alliance with Michael Waltrip Racing, and will continue the relationship in 2010. Expect a solid season for Ambrose and the No. 47 group. Oh yeah, he will win one, if not both road course races this summer.
NASCAR Top 40 preseason countdown (part I)
Comments