![Daniel Day-Lewis and Sally Field in "Lincoln"](http://cdn2-b.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/image_content_width/hash/2f/1c/1361315039_9405_Lincoln.jpg?itok=6-BLgEmf "Daniel Day-Lewis and Sally Field in "Lincoln"")
This roller coaster of an awards season is almost over. In less than a week, the Academy will announce their picks for outstanding achievement in the art of filmmaking and it will finally be behind us. History has been made again and again throughout, from the DGA winner not receiving a Best Director nomination from the Academy (only the third time this has ever happened) to the favorite film of the evening having the 5th highest amount of nominations. So now it’s time to present my annual commentary on the various categories, telling you which I think deserves the win and which I think has the best chance of winning this Sunday night.
Starting off with the categories that I haven’t seen a single nominee from:
Documentary (Short Subject)
INOCENTE
KINGS POINT
MONDAYS AT RACINE
OPEN HEART
REDEMPTION
Short Film (Animated)
ADAM AND DOG
FRESH GUACAMOLE
HEAD OVER HEELS
MAGGIE SIMPSON IN "THE LONGEST DAYCARE”
PAPERMAN
Short Film (Live Action)
ASAD
BUZKASHI BOYS
CURFEW
DEATHS OF A SHADOW
HENRY
Documentary (Feature)
5 BROKEN CAMERAS
THE GATEKEEPERS
HOW TO SURVIVE A PLAGUE
THE INVISIBLE WAR
SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN
For these categories, all I can give you is the consensus that is going around. Documentary Feature will be awarded to “Searching for Sugarman” quite simply because it has won the award everywhere, making it a shock if anything else were to win. Experts seem to think that “Curfew” will take Live Action Short, “Paperman” will take Animated Short, and “Open Heart” will take Documentary Short. As usual, I’d like to offer some kind of commentary on these, but I haven’t seen them, nor are there any awards to give some kind of precedent.
Visual Effects
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
LIFE OF PI
MARVEL'S THE AVENGERS
PROMETHEUS
SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN
Who I think should win: "Life of Pi"
Who I think will win: "Life of Pi"
Here we have one of the easiest categories to predict. Not only did “Life of Pi” have amazing visual effects (that tiger was spectacular), but the film also cleaned up at the Visual Effects Society awards, making this a shoe-in to win. Then again, everyone though “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” was going to win last year, and we all know how that turned out.
Sound Editing
ARGO
DJANGO UNCHAINED
LIFE OF PI
SKYFALL
ZERO DARK THIRTY
Who I think should win: "Skyfall"
Who I think will win: "Skyfall"
While I didn’t care much for the latest James Bond outing, there’s no denying that the sound was expertly done. The Motion Picture Sound Editors awards were held recently and the film received Best Sound Effects and Foley, which I believe puts it in the lead for this award. However, “Life of Pi” took two awards of its own, which could make it a potential winner too. That being said, I think they’re going to spread the love a little and let some of the larger technical awards go to “Pi” while honoring “Skyfall” here.
Sound Mixing
ARGO
LES MISERABLES
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SKYFALL
Who I think should win: "Les Miserables"
Who I think will win: "Les Miserables"
This is one that should, and I think will, belong to “Les Miserables.” Given the daunting task of recording the singing live, then adding in the rest of the music and sound effects, this one seems to be in the bag for the spectacular musical.
Music (Original Song)
"Before My Time" from CHASING ICE
"Everybody Needs A Best Friend" from TED
"Pi's Lullaby" from LIFE OF PI
"Skyfall" from SKYFALL
"Suddenly" from LES MISERABLES
Who I think should win: “Suddenly” from “Les Miserables”
Who I think will win: “Skyfall” from “Skyfall”
“Suddenly” is a beautiful number, one of many from “Les Miserables,” but Adele’s “Skyfall” has already taken a few awards, making it the clear favorite for the category.
Music (Original Score)
Dario Marianelli - ANNA KARENINA
Alexandre Desplat - ARGO
Mychael Danna - LIFE OF PI
John Williams - LINCOLN
Thomas Newman - SKYFALL
Who I think should win: John Williams, “Lincoln”
Who I think will win: Mychael Danna, “Life of Pi”
Williams offers up yet another brilliant score in his long career, but the consensus, as well as previous awards, seem to give the edge to “Life of Pi.” I wish I could comment more on it, but the score was not one of the more memorable parts of the film for me.
Makeup
HITCHCOCK
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
LES MISERABLES
Who I think should win: “The Hobbit” or “Les Miserables”
Who I think will win: "Les Miserables"
Both “The Hobbit” and “Les Miserables” had amazing makeup, but with a BAFTA win in the category, the edge goes to “Les Miserables.” Unfortunately, we don’t have much more to base the choice on. However, I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if “The Hobbit” pulls off a win here. The film would not be possible without the extensive makeup for the dwarves and various other creatures, so it would be unwise to count it out.
Film Editing
ARGO
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
ZERO DARK THIRTY
Who I think should win: “Lincoln” or “Life of Pi”
Who I think will win: “Argo”
Here we have what will probably be the first undeserved win for “Argo.” The film recently took the American Cinema Editors top honor, which puts it in the lead to take the category. However, there are at least two other nominees in this category that are far more deserving (“Lincoln” and “Life of Pi”). “Lincoln” is amazingly edited to bring out the drama of the story, while “Life of Pi” is beautifully assembled to present a visual feast. However, you may recall that the award randomly went to “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” last year over presumed frontrunner “The Artist,” so perhaps another random winner will be announced on Oscar night.
Costume Design
ANNA KARENINA
LES MISERABLES
LINCOLN
MIRROR MIRROR
SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN
Who I think should win: “Anna Karenina”
Who I think will win: “Anna Karenina”
The Academy tends to go for very flamboyant costumes, which puts “Anna Karenina” right at the top of the list with the consensus pointing right at it. Even I have to admit the costumes shined, despite the film being a rather big disappointment.
Cinematography
ANNA KARENINA
DJANGO UNCHAINED
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SKYFALL
Who I think should win: “Life of Pi”
Who I think will win: “Life of Pi”
This is another category that seems rather easy to predict. Even though I wasn’t particularly impressed with “Life of Pi” overall, there’s no denying that the film is an amazing technical achievement, with the film’s cinematography being one of its best accomplishments. The consensus is heavily behind this one, however, it should be noted that the American Society of Cinematographers awarded Roger Deakins for “Skyfall.” He could be a potential upset, not because of the award (which doesn’t match all that often with the Academy), but because he has been nominated ten times and has yet to win. The Academy could see fit to finally give him a pity Oscar despite his work not being as good as “Life of Pi.” Another thing: this category also seemed rather easy to predict last year when “The Tree of Life” seemed to have the category all sewn up, only to have it inexplicably taken away by “Hugo” at the last second. Our top scientists are still trying to figure out how this mistake occurred.
Production Design
ANNA KARENINA
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
LES MISERABLES
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
Who I think should win: “Les Miserables” or “Anna Karenina”
Who I think will win: “Anna Karenina”
Both “Les Miserables” and “Anna Karenina” had undeniably gorgeous production designs, but the Art Directors Guild awarded “Anna Karenina” Best Design for a Period Film, which the Academy tends to lean toward. Plus, it has the consensus on its side. However, it’s a little hard to rule out “Les Miserables” given its BAFTA win in this category or “Life of Pi” which took Best Design for a Fantasy Film.
Animated Feature Film
BRAVE
FRANKENWEENIE
PARANORMAN
THE PIRATES! BAND OF MISFITS
WRECK-IT RALPH
Who I think should win: “Wreck-It Ralph”
Who I think will win: “Wreck-It Ralph”
“Wreck-It Ralph” was by far the best animated film of the year, which easily makes it my choice for the category, but it’s also won honors such as the PGA’s Animated Feature award. The only other threat I see in the category is “Brave,” which has won a few awards itself, and while it’s one of their weaker efforts, you can never entirely rule out the power of Pixar.
Foreign Language Film
AMOUR
KON-TIKI
NO
A ROYAL AFFAIR
WAR WITCH
Who I think should win (of the two nominees I’ve seen): “A Royal Affair”
Who I think will win: “Amour”
I can’t really say much about this category given that I’ve only seen “A Royal Affair” and “Amour,” but I really enjoyed “A Royal Affair,” so much so that it even made my top ten list of the year. However, the award will go to the unstoppable “Amour,” which has won nearly every Foreign Language award across the board. It’s a rather overrated film, but this is pretty much a sure thing.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
AMOUR
DJANGO UNCHAINED
FLIGHT
MOONRISE KINGDOM
ZERO DARK THIRTY
Who I think should win: Quentin Tarantino, “Django Unchained”
Who I think will win: Quentin Tarantino, “Django Unchained”
For a while, it seemed like “Zero Dark Thirty” had this in the bag, that is, until Tarantino won the Critics Choice, Golden Globe, and BAFTA for his “Django Unchained” screenplay, putting him in the clear lead for the award. While it wasn’t one of his stronger efforts, I’d still have to give it to him. As I said in my review of the film, even Tarantino’s weaker efforts are stronger than a lot of people’s strongest efforts. Plus, this is the Academy’s opportunity to make up for their mistake of robbing him of his Original Screenplay Oscar three years ago for the brilliant “Inglourious Basterds.”
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
ARGO
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Who should win: Tony Kushner, “Lincoln”
Who I think will win: Chris Terrio, “Argo”
Here we have what will be one of the biggest tragedies of the night. While I had one or two problems with Kushner’s screenplay for “Lincoln,” there was no denying that it was easily the single best adapted screenplay of the year. Throughout award season, it sat at its rightful place at the top of the heap, that is, until the Scripter was awarded to “Argo,” which was followed a week later by the WGA doing the same, giving it the clear lead in the category (the WGA’s pick matches the Academy’s in the Adapted Screenplay category 2/3 of the time). I’m still holding onto a little hope that the Academy will correct these terrible errors and give the Oscar to Kushner, but it’s not looking good at the moment. I’d say more here, but I’ll wait until later.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams - THE MASTER
Sally Field - LINCOLN
Anne Hathaway - LES MISERABLES
Helen Hunt - THE SESSIONS
Jacki Weaver - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Who I think should win: Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”
Who I think will win: Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”
This is Anne Hathaway’s to lose. She’s won the award everywhere and from everyone including the Critics Choice, the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG. It certainly helps that her performance was astounding in “Les Miserables.” This is one of just a few categories that are pretty much a sure thing.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin - ARGO
Robert De Niro - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Philip Seymour Hoffman - THE MASTER
Tommy Lee Jones - LINCOLN
Christoph Waltz - DJANGO UNCHAINED
Who I think should win: Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”
Who I think will win: Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”
Here we have one of the most hotly-contested categories of the year. Hoffman won the Critics Choice, Waltz won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, but Jones won the SAG award, and that’s the one that really counts. All three of these top contenders have won Oscars before, but it’s been 19 years since Jones took his home for his performance in “The Fugitive,” while it’s only been three years for Waltz (for a very similar performance in “Inglourious Basterds,” which makes me think he won’t win again, especially not so soon), and only seven years since Hoffman took home Best Actor. I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again: I loved Jones’ performance as part do-gooder, part insult comic. I think he has the edge here. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that he won the category several times throughout the critics awards.
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain - ZERO DARK THIRTY
Jennifer Lawrence - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Emmanuelle Riva - AMOUR
Quvenzhané Wallis - BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Naomi Watts - THE IMPOSSIBLE
Who I think should win: Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Who I think will win: Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
This is another contest that’s a little heated. Lawrence and Chastain both won Golden Globes for their performances, but it was Lawrence who won the SAG. There are even people out there who think Riva has a chance simply because she took home the BAFTA award. However, the consensus lies with Lawrence, whose performance was much more memorable than Chastain’s, whose really good performance gets lost in the background of an overly-long movie. Something else to consider: history tells us that there tends to be a shakeup in at least one acting category. It’s a little rare for all of them to match SAG, so if I had to guess, I’d say that the shakeup could happen in either Best Supporting Actor or Best Actress. That being said, I stand by my predictions as the best guesses as to who will win.
Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Daniel Day-Lewis - LINCOLN
Hugh Jackman - LES MISERABLES
Joaquin Phoenix - THE MASTER
Denzel Washington - FLIGHT
Who I think should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
Who I think will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
Here we have another category that’s all sewn up. This is Daniel Day-Lewis’ to lose for his brilliant performance in “Lincoln.” It’s not easy to win a third acting Oscar, but for a man I would call the greatest actor of our time, it’s not that hard of a task.
Directing
Michael Haneke - AMOUR
Benh Zeitlin - BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Ang Lee - LIFE OF PI
Steven Spielberg - LINCOLN
David O. Russell - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Who I think should win: Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
Who I think will win: Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
This is a most perplexing category. As I mentioned up top, the winner of the DGA award (Ben Affleck) is not present among the nominees, so there really isn’t anything to point out a winner. However, the consensus seems to be that Spielberg will take it, not only because of the 12 nominations his film received, but obviously because of the beautiful direction of the film itself. In a way, I also see this as the Academy giving him a consolation prize for his film not winning Best Picture this year. It will be the biggest prize that “Lincoln” gets, acknowledging that the Academy did indeed find it to be one of the very best films of the year.
Best Picture
AMOUR
ARGO
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
DJANGO UNCHAINED
LES MISERABLES
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
ZERO DARK THIRTY
Who I think should win: “Les Miserables”
Who I think will win: “Argo”
We come to it at last. Anyone who’s been keeping up with my reviews, or saw my top ten list, knows that I found “Les Miserables” to be the best film of the year. It’s got everything you could want in a great film: amazing performances all around, beautiful music, great direction and production design, and an enthralling, emotional story. However, Hollywood, and more specifically “The Industry,” have seen fit to pat themselves on the back by throwing most of their top awards at “Argo” (a film that deals with filmmakers helping to save hostages trapped in Iran), despite it being the fifth best nominee on the list (behind “Les Miserables,” “Lincoln,” “Django Unchained,” and “Silver Linings Playbook”). The film has taken several Guild awards that it had no business taking, including top honors from the PGA, SAG (this was perhaps the most inexplicable of all), WGA, and ACE. The only one that it was even slightly deserving of was the DGA’s top honor, because the film was indeed very well-directed, though I was leaning toward Tom Hooper and Steven Spielberg.
What’s basically going to happen is “Argo” will win Best Picture and it will be forgotten within six months, mainly because it is such a forgettable film. It’s not a BAD film, I actually liked it enough to recommend it, but it’s just absurd that such a so-so movie is taking so many awards away from more deserving films. The result is a film that will be looked back on as a pretty bad choice for Best Picture given some of the other nominees. In this regard, it will join “The Hurt Locker” (another decent, but extremely forgettable film), which inexplicably beat out “Inglourious Basterds” for Best Picture.
That’s really all there is to say about it. If anything manages to beat “Argo,” it would be a major upset at this point. However, there’s always hope of just that happening, similar to when “Crash” unexpectedly beat “Brokeback Mountain.” There are also some who say that the Academy won’t want to split Picture and Director, ergo if Spielberg takes Director, “Lincoln” may take Best Picture. We’ll just have to wait and see if such a miracle occurs.
You can watch the Oscars when they air live on Sunday, February 24. Be sure to come back for a full list of winners as well as commentary on the night’s events.
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