Heavy rainfall impacted the Garden State this morning with rainfall amounts over one to as much as four inches of rain throughout the state. The rainfall was the result of a strong disturbance at the mid and upper levels that interacted with the surface boundary between warm, tropical air over central Pennsylvania and cool, moist marine air over New Jersey. As a result, an area of moderate to heavy rain with embedded strong to severe thunderstorms dropped south through New Jersey late last night through the early morning hours.
A similar set up is possible for this evening through much of Saturday. A series of disturbances will approach New Jersey along a stationary boundary over eastern Pennsylvania. These disturbances will have plenty of moisture to work with from the Atlantic Ocean at the surface and from the Gulf of Mexico at the mid to upper levels. As a result, any disturbance that goes through an unexpected intensification would lead to very heavy rainfall much like what was observed early this morning.
Through this afternoon, expect scattered cloud cover, increasing towards evening. Dry conditions are expected to hold out, but can not rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm, especially along the Delaware River and over northwestern New Jersey. Winds will be from the east at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70's for highs but will feel like the mid 80's due to the high level of humidity.
Tonight on through tomorrow, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a threat. These showers and thunderstorm will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall at times along with frequent lightning and wind gusts over 40 mph. A few isolated thunderstorms may reach severe levels, but this is currently not expected. Winds will back from the east to north at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures tomorrow morning will range from the lower to mid 60's for lows and mid to upper 70's for highs.
High pressure over Quebec, Canada will build south tomorrow night leading to clearing skies from north to south. High pressure will remain in control Sunday on through Thursday with clear skies to scattered cloud cover. Temperatures on Sunday and Monday will range from the upper 50's to lower 60's for lows and upper 70's to lower 80's for highs. Temperatures on Tuesday through Thursday will range from the lower to mid 60's for lows and lower to mid 80's for highs.