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According to a report by Moody's cited on MSNBC.com today, Idaho will be one of the first five states to lead the economic rebound this year. The report predicts job growth will come in the fourth quarter of the year.

The report cites a prominant high tech industry and generally good household credit as two major indicators of a state's positioning for recovery. The rationale is that as the economy improves many companies will be looking to update their IT systems, resulting in more orders coming to those states with a heavy tech presence.

The study also considers that those states where consumers have managed their credit debt better will experience a quicker recovery in consumer spending. In that category Idaho ranked "worst of the best".

The report seems to be good news, yet it is not difficult to question. A large portion of Idaho's job losses during the recession have come in the tech industry, with Micron and HP leading the way. The Eagle-Star Technology Corridor is actively recruiting companies to relocate to the Treasure Valley, but it seems unlikely that their efforts will bring results quickly enough to drive Moody's predictions.

Add to that a report published today that Idaho's exports dropped significantly in the first quarter this year--worse than the national average--and one has to wonder if Moody's is looking at the right information in making their assessments.

Yet another indicator that Moody's weighs is how far a state has dropped initially. Those states that have experienced smaller declines are better positioned to recover. It is true that Idaho's recession has not been as pronounced as it has in other states. Recent unemployment figures in Idaho also suggest that our net job losses have nearly stopped, which could set the stage for an employment recovery as predicted.

Only time will tell.