Military goes post-oil

The United States military is moving to become a dominate force in clean energy, and if the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) had its way, the military would be oil-free in three short decades.

A recent report, published by CNAS, called Fueling the Future Force: Preparing the Department of Defense for a Post-Petroleum Era advocates the goal of moving the U.S. military and all of its systems to non-petroleum fuels by 2040. CNAS is not the military, so the process of shifting the vast array of military systems that currently rely on oil will require implementation by the military on a local-scale; it will also require acknowledging reality, both the true costs of oil (environmental damage, subsidies, war) and the capability limits of biofuels and clean energy.

The plan to transition the military to non-petroleum sources of fuel for their operations relies on technological innovations in the energy field, efficiency improvements, and diversification of fuel sources. A host of technologies is needed to transition military field bases, their vehicles, the aircraft, etc. to a post-oil era. Development of biofuels, improvement in energy storage for both the grid and electric vehicles, more wind and solar installments to power field bases is all part of the plan for a new definition of American national security.

The CNAS report falls in fertile ground at military headquarters. The reality of the war in Iraq’s mission to secure U.S. oil interests in the Middle East in combination with oil’s volatile political and economic temperament has the military leaders of the world concerned that the shortening petroleum supply is becoming a significant problem and thinking that the transition away from oil dependence is a matter of national security.

Peak oil has been discussed in government and military circles for some time now. As demand for oil rises and supply shrinks, potential for shortfalls and conflicts rise. The military, tasked with protecting the country from threats, is beginning to view oil dependence as a significant enough threat to be addressed. Critics have long criticized the strategy of launching wars to secure oil for future wars to secure more future oil. At some time before petroleum reserves are depleted, market forces have the potential to wreak havoc on global stability; and the military is reacting to that reality and seeking to protect the general public from the threat that diminishing oil supplies poses on the global stage.

The U.S. military is not the only one preparing for a post-petroleum world. Over the summer, documents showed that the German and British military were also planning for a future where tight oil supply and the potential for conflict were constant threats. Both Britain and Germany’s military forces are planning for a world where oil production peaks this year or by 2012, and a series of financial calamities then sets in for a decade or more. The countries that are on the front end of the transition-away-from-oil curve will generally experience more stability going forward.

Most major countries are developing strategies for securing future sources of oil; the problem with that strategy is that even those reserves will run out in the not-so-distant future. Most major countries are also developing alternate energy technologies as a means toward their future stability; development of biofuels, wind, solar, ocean energy is more and more these days a matter of national security.

While a surplus of oil may exist today, unless the global economy permanently stays recessionary, a global shortfall upwards of 10 million bpd could easily set in by 2015, the CNAS report says. For a country like the U.S., which consumes 20 million barrels of oil per day in a roaring economy, a 10 million bpd shortfall can have significant impacts disrupting societal stability. Military planners around the world are now actively mitigating their risks associated with oil dependence and seeing the necessity for a quicker transition than business is trumpeting.

Fueling the Future Force: Preparing the Department of Defense for a Post-Petroleum Era.

Transitioning away from petroleum dependence by 2040 will be enormously difficult, but fortunately the U.S. defense sector has made several energy transitions successfully in its history. In particular, it moved from coal to petroleum to nuclear power in its ships. In a similarly seismic shift, DOD rapidly increased its reliance on electronics, space assets, and computer systems in modern warfare in ways that enhanced mission effectiveness. These experiences may offer lessons for DOD as it leverages an energy transition to maximize its strategic flexibility and freedom of maneuver.