A mild day is on tap for the Capital Region today. Lots of clouds, and some peaks of sunshine, aided by a southwesterly breeze, will help boost temperatures to near to slightly above normal today. A weak cold front will sag south of the region this evening with little if any fanfare outside of some thickening cloud cover, as the system moves to our south and stalls.
Strengthening low pressure will move out of the center of the nation, into the Ohio Valley Wednesday morning. This system will intensify rapidly through Wednesday night as it moves to near New York City by Wednesday evening, and into the Gulf of Maine on Thursday morning. This storm looks to hug the coast of southern New England between this period. This general storm track usually brings a wintry mix of precipitation to the Capital Region and points southward, while as areas to the north and west tend to end up with more snowfall.
Of greater note with this system is a large and pronounced gradient in surface temperatures, from north to south, which the surface low pressure is expected to track within. Should the low pressure system end up tracking further north, the Capital Region may enter into warmer air, and thus have the potential for all rainfall. A further south track of the system would imply much colder air, and a greater probability of significant snowfall. At this point in time, the Capital Region an vicinity look to be right on the borderline between both extreme scenario’s, and thus a wintry mix of precipitation is forecast with modest snow accumulation, and perhaps even some minor icing accumulation. Stay tuned for further updates.
The system will quickly track away from the region during the day Thursday, however, the low pressure area will have become quite deep and powerful by this time, and with a strong high pressure area building toward the region late in the week, a strong and gusty west and northwest wind will kick up beginning Wednesday night and lasting through the day on Thursday.
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
Today: Intervals of clouds and sunshine and somewhat mild. High in the mid 40’s. West to southwest winds 5 to 15 MPH.
Tonight: Increasing clouds. A stray flurry is possible. Low in the upper 20’s. Light and variable winds.
Wednesday: Thickening and lowering clouds with a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and/or rain developing by afternoon. High in the upper 30’s, with temperatures slowly falling to near 30 by late in the day. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible by evening.
Wednesday Night: Periods of snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain. Becoming windy. Low in the upper teens. Northwest winds increasing to 15 to 25 MPH with some higher gusts to near 35 MPH possible at times. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible, with minor icing accumulation also possible.
Thursday: A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain possible in the morning, with intervals of clouds and sunshine during the afternoon. Windy and cold. High 20 to 25. Northwest winds 15 to 30 MPH with some higher gusts possible at times. Chance of precipitation is 40 percent. An inch or less of additional snow accumulation is possible.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High near 35 and low near 20.
Saturday: A 30 percent chance of rain and snow showers, otherwise intervals of clouds and sunshine. High near 45 and low near 25.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High near 40 and low near 15.
Monday: Mostly sunny and windy. High near 35 and low near 10.