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Milder weather and rain bolster flood threat over Capital Region

Low pressure over the upper Great Lakes will drive a warm front northeastward, through the Capital Region, during the morning hours today. A coastal front was draped from the Mid Atlantic coast northeastward, along the southern New England coast. This frontal system was acting in tandem with the approaching warm front to bring some light precipitation to the Capital Region this morning. The rain is expected to become steadier and heavier, at times, through the day today.

Capital Region Weather Examiner Daily Weather Slides 01/11/2014
Capital Region Weather Examiner Daily Weather Slides 01/11/2014
Capital Region Weather Examiner
Weather Channel Saturday Morning Surface Map

A flood watch has been issued by the National Weather Service in Albany, NY, for the Capital Region and vicinity, Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. The main threats being ice jam flooding along area rivers. The break-up of ice, combined with excessive runoff from rainfall unable to soak into the frozen ground, may lead to flooding. In addition, poor drainage areas may also see flooding due to the frozen ground’s inability to soak in much of the water. Melting of the snow pack will only exacerbate run off issues during this time as well. Stay tuned for later statements and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. A flood warning is issued when flooding is imminent or is already occurring, and those in warned areas should take immediate action to preserve life and property.

The low pressure center responsible for the turbulent weather will move into southeastern Canada overnight tonight, dragging a cold front through the Capital Region. Rainfall will begin to diminish overnight tonight as result. An upper level disturbance will cross the region early on Sunday, bringing with it the threat of some additional rain showers.

The work week looks to bring a somewhat unsettled and chaotic weather pattern to the region. After a brief ridge of high pressure builds in on Monday, another system approaches the region by Tuesday. This is followed by another transient ridge of high pressure for the midweek period. Another warm and cold front pair then approach for the end of the work week and pass through prior to the start of next weekend. In general, the frontal passages look to be rather uninspiring, with some rain and/or snow showers possible with each one. Temperatures look to end up averaging right around, to slightly above, seasonal averages.

..Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...

**National Weather Service FLOOD WATCH In Effect Saturday Afternoon Through Sunday Afternoon**

Today: Light rain, drizzle, and areas of fog this morning. A steadier rain by afternoon. Rain may be heavy at times into the evening. Breezy and unseasonably mild. High near 50. South winds 5-15 MPH, increasing to 10-20 MPH this afternoon. Chance of rain is 100 percent.

Tonight: Rain likely during the evening, tapering to showers and drizzle late at night. Breezy. Low near 35. South winds, shifting west at 10-20 MPH. Chance of rain is 80 percent during the evening, and 40 percent after midnight.

Sunday: A chance of showers during the morning. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds and breezy. High near 45. West winds 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts to near 30 MPH possible at times. Chance of rain in the morning is 30 percent.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 25-30. Light and variable winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High near 45. South winds 5-15 MPH.

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of light rain. High near 40 and low near 30.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of morning showers. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds and breezy. High near 35 and low near 20.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High near 35 and low near 15.

Friday: Partly sunny and breezy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. High near 30 and low near 20.

Useful links...

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Current Surface Weather Map

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Surface Weather Map 48 hour loop forecast

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