A series of low pressure waves will form along a stalled out frontal boundary draped from the Gulf of Maine, across northern New York State, and southwestward to Texas. The Capital Region will remain to the south of this stalled boundary that will separate colder air to its north and warmer air to its south. As each low pressure wave rides along the boundary, the Capital Region will see intermittent bouts of rainfall. A wintry mix of precipitation is possible to the north of the Capital Region, and closer to the Canadian border areas.
Periods of rainfall look to occur Saturday and Sunday, and some of this rain may be heavy at times. The following weather concerns are being closely monitored for the upcoming weekend.
1. Fog: The potential for widespread dense fog, especially during the overnight and early morning periods on Saturday and Sunday. A very mild airmass for this time of year will be over the region through this period. As the airmass interacts with the snow cover, foggy areas will be the result due to cooling of the air near the surface.
2. Flooding / Heavy Rains: Although the extensive snow pack over the region may be able to absorb some of the rainfall that occurs over the weekend, there is the potential that some heavier rain may occur for prolonged periods of time. This would cause extensive runoff, and melting of the ice that has formed on rivers and waterways. Ice jam potential will be increased this weekend due to the combination of warmer temperatures and rain.
Colder air is forecast to sweep back into the region on Sunday night as a potent cold front passes through the area. This should change precipitation back to frozen types, mainly snow, before things taper off in time for the work week. Temperatures look to remain below freezing for the start of the holiday week, mitigating flooding concerns by that point in time. A brisk breeze should also help keep the air mixed enough to prevent dense fog formation.
Stay tuned to local media outlets, or the National Weather Service, for official statements and potential watches or warnings regarding hazardous conditions over the coming weekend.
Capital Region Weather Examiner Home Page
Capital Region Weather Examiner Facebook page
Current Surface Weather Map
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) Surface Weather Map 48 hour loop forecast
Albany, NY office of the National Weather Service