In the last days before the 2010 midterm elections Democrats are taking hope in some polls that have them closing the gap in key races, and also point to the most recent Newsweek poll as evidenced that they have turned the tide against Republicans on the national level. Republicans contend that Democrats are simply denying the coming reality of GOP tide on November 2nd.
The controversial poll in question from Newsweek gives Democrats a three-point lead (48%-45%) over Republican on the generic congressional ballot. The generic ballot asks voters whether they would generally vote for a Democrat or Republican in the next election, without mentioning any specific names of candidates. The Newsweek poll differs greatly from every other major poll that has been released. Real Clear Politics averages the polls (including the one from Newsweek) and has Republicans leading by an average of 6.9% (48.9%-42.0%). Every other major poll has Republicans leading by at least five, and some have Republicans leading by double-digits.
[See the most recent polls for key Senate races in the 2010 midterm elections]
As a result, either Newsweek is wrong or every other poll (Rasmussen, Gallup, Pew, etc) on the market is wrong. The most likely result is that Newsweek is the outlier, and that there numbers are off due to bad sampling or any number of other factors.
Having said that, there are some reasons for Democrats to believe the Newsweek poll may be legitimate.
First, the Newsweek poll actually used a "likely voter" model, which tends to favor Republicans. Much like other polls Newsweek asked respondents questions, such as "Where is your polling place?", to determine whether they were likely to vote or not. Even after narrowing their sample using these criteria Newsweek still had likely voters favoring Democrats.
Second, the Newsweek poll included cell phone-only users. Out of the 1,000 people Newsweek polled 333 were polled on their cell phone. Some of the other pollsters, such as Rasmussen, do not sample cell phone users. Some believe the exclusion of a cell phone user sample may skew results against Democrats, since cell phone users tend to be more urban, young, Democratic voters.
Finally, the Newsweek poll included 92 people who claimed they had already voted in the election. These results, while very small, also showed Democrats winning. Polls of people who have already voted are generally considered more reliable than polls of how people will vote in the future.
Comments
"Second, the Newsweek poll included cell phone-only users. Out of the 1,000 people Newsweek polled 333 were polled on their cell phone. Some of the other pollsters, such as Rasmussen, do not sample cell phone users. Some believe the exclusion of a cell phone user sample may skew results against Democrats, since cell phone users tend to be more urban, young, Democratic voters."
that's the telling point...finally a modern polling model that reflects the modern situation...no more calling grandmas at home during the day and extrapolating that into a false polling.
What a douche you are. Everybody and their grandma has a cell phone. What are you stuck in the 90's. What a payaso.
I still do not own a cell phone and still have a land line.
Just have no use for a cell.
"What a douche you are. Everybody and their grandma has a cell phone. What are you stuck in the 90's. What a payaso."
that's the point pendejo! QUIT POLLING LANDLINES ONLY!!!!!
Newsweak? The rag that sold for $1?
You may as well cite Think Progress or Media Matters.
Newsweek? Might as well have said Old Earl who lives in a van by the river gives DemocRATS the lead. What a waste of paper that rag is.
bwah hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. This is so pathetic I can't even comment. bwah hahahahahahahahahaha. Witt you just lost what little bit of credibility you had. Can't wait to hear your lame excuses next Wednesday after the Dimocraps get BEATDOWN.
Let me guess:
You will get Social Security and Medicare. You took out student loans for college. Also, you never enlisted in the armed forces, yet are for the Afghanistan war.
Sounds like a typical Right Winger to me.
Lets see. Student loans were from a bank and were paid back with interest, they dis not come from the government until the Socialist in Chief took them over.
SS and MC? When you pay into something that is already there and have no choice BUT TO PAY then yes, we are due back what we have paid in to.
So your childish thoughtless post shows you MUST be a libprog who has a mental disorder.
notice you ducked the military service question, though. Typical chickenhawk.
It is refreshing to see our right wing whackos returning to their simplistic mind set and denying facts that they find unattractive. Much like their candidates, they first deny the truth then attack the messengers. Next, as the Democratic votes roll up, they will cry "foul" and insist that the election was stolen and--with their experience in stealing elections--insist that they know what they are talking about.
As for Old Earl who lives in a van by the river: Well, ever since he started drinking the tea, he just hasn't been the same.
Your projecting again!
it's his projector?
Yeah the polls were only taken in Republican areas and still Democrats were in contention then they started taking some polls in some independant areas and Democrats started to Turn the tide then the press realized that Fox Republican broadcast station was flaking the Polls and they started asking everyone in all areas and now Democrats are pulling ahead we can all remember back to Bush and republican screw ups and dont want that back for sure. Dont Drink Republicans Cool-Aid and don't be Bsuh Whacked by Bush politics. Vote for the Democrats!!!!
wow. all you people are so angry...
Your poll worked out great. I was a little confused why this poll was so far off the others. I guess because it was wrong.
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