Every election has its own keyword and phrases. One of the buzz phrases of the 2010 midterms has become known as the "enthusiasm gap." For the non-politicos amongst, the "enthusiasm gap" is the perceived lack of enthusiasm among liberals this year compared to the perceived zealousness of consrvative voters. Many political analysts believe the enthusiasm gap will be responsible for huge losses this year for Democrats, possibly even allowing to Republicans to take back both the House and Senate. The theory is that conservative voters will go out to vote in large numbers, while liberals stay home and watch their candidates lose. However, recent polls suggest that the enthusiasm gap may be shrinking.
The best evidence of the gap comes from generic ballot polls of "likely voters." These polls ask "likely" voters whether they plan on voting for a generic Democrat or generic Republicans next November. A "likely voter" is defined by a number of factors including their respondents answers to a number of questions such as "Do you plan on voting next November." As the election nears survery ask voters if they know where their polling place is as a way to measure whether they are a "likely voter." The likely voter model is considered a better measurement during midterm elections, since turnout is usually lower in midterms compared to presidential elections. Therefore, fewer registered voters tend to make it out to the polls.
Over the past two months Republicans held significant leads in generic ballot polls of likely voters. Rasmussen Reports had Republicans with a 12 point lead (48%-36%) in their generic ballot poll in the mid-August, and a ten-point lead (48%-38%) in mid-September. Another CNN poll from one week ago gave Republicans a nine-point lead (54%-45%) among likely voters. Now those leads seem to be dwindling. The most recent Rasmussen Reports poll has the Republican lead down to six points (46%-40%). A poll released today from NBC/Wall Street Journal has the Republican advantage down to just 3 points (46%-43%). Those numbers are still not good for Democrats, but they certainly look better than the data from two weeks ago.
There are a number of possible reasons behind the shriking enthusiasm gap. Some believe that voters are just now beginning to pay attention to the midterm elections (since most people busy themselves with other matters of life such as working). As more poeple begin to pay attention, the theory is that Democrats are gaining voters who previously were tuning out. Other analysts have suggested that Tea Party candidates and the Republican proposals are scaring Democratic voters to the polls. For instance, liberals may be disappointed about the loss of the public option, but they certainly do not want to see Republicans repeal the progressive health care reform provisions that were passed. Finally, the Democratic Party has just recently begun their intensive get-out-the-vote campaigns and activated their organizaitonal machine. It is possible that these efforts are beginning to bear fruit in the recent polls.
At this point no one knows whether the late momentum for Democrats is "too little, too late" to save their majorities next November. It is even possible that Republicans will regain their lead in the final month as more of their base gets excited about the possibility of taking back Congress.
Comments
the anti-Tea Party is being fired up...november is not looking the way republicans thought it would look like.
We'll see in 5 weeks won;t we?
we sure will
Jim Jones and Jonestown were christians. And just like christians everywhere, NUTS.
Christians have nothing to do with this. Didn't Obama himself just declare that he too is a "Nutty" Christian by choice ? The Tea Party is a mainstream movement of the American people AGAINST COMMUNISM. Bob Dylan once sang "Don't follow leaders and watch the parking meters". The meter is up on Obama and the Democrats, the most Marxist and corrupt regime in this nation's history, and the American People are writing them a big fat TICKET, which will be handed to them on November 3rd.
Another mouth-breather who has no clue what COMMUNISM really is or what it's like to live under it.
Perfect dumb recruit for the money men behind the "populist" tea potters.
I am from Cuba. I know all about it. What do YOU know ?
it should be expected with every main stream media outlet doing their part to help prop up Team Obama. Face it, our Dear Leader and his party need all the useful idiots they can get to drink the kool-aide.
we have extra...why don't you kick back and have a glass? You might stop seeing the sky as falling though and it might make you come out from under your bed. And guess what? It will make the clouds of doom go away.
Why, so I can go Jonestown (maybe should call it Obamatown)? Thanks but no thanks, you keep your kool-aide, you are going to need it, maybe add a little something to ease the pain in November. Clouds of doom? No worries, I see them thinning in November and clear skies by January 2013. Cheers.
Nevermind the MSM's acquiescence during the Bush Administration - ignore the fact that every major channel spewed the daily propaganda toward the Iraq Invasion - no, just conveniently forget that. You've probably been listening to too much Limbaugh to remember. I'll forgive you on that account (cause he's not "media", just entertainment, right?).
You people have been drinking the kool-aid for years - and now you want to blame others for supporting a president that, for once, just might have a conscience.
You probably just learned the definition of "useful idiot" within the past 1-2 years, am I right? Did you know that it is a concept invented by Marxists? If you feel hypocritical, don't let yourself feel too bad about it. Your idols sure don't.
I'm sure you'll be a useful idiot to the next Palin/O'Donnell/Paladino-type campaign to come around. But no, you're much too smart to be indoctrinated by fascist propaganda, aren't you?
Go back to your TV and your Fox News Channel, and stop pretending to fight for lower and middle class Americans anonymously over the internet. Your argument is a charade.
ask a conservative to tell you what he/she sees in a cloud and he/she will tell you a "kool-aide drinking 800 pound gorilla"
You know generally you can come up with some funny stuff but this just falls a little flat today, B-.
I'll tell ya what I see in a cloud: a lot of poisonous acid rainfall, from all those chemicals that they put in the Gulf to dissolve all the oil that they just couldn't stop. NICE JOB, O !
Ain't you found a job yet walnut?
Or is welfare better suited to your lifestyle?
I don't know, the polls are so all over the place I am starting to doubt there veracity, what ever way they go. We'll just have to wait and see what happens but I suspect there will be surprises for everyone.
The teabagged crowd doesn't stand for anything--much like the gNOp. They're more interested in shutting down government than doing anything of use--it's an ego driven power grab. That's all.
But the Democratic Party better get it's spine back, and quick. Wingnuts are evil, and they must be defeated for the good of our Country, God, and the Constitution.
Seems that way to me. - lg
WHAT SPINE ??? I'll take the Wingnuts any day over these corrupt, slimy, worms. Nobody has done more to damage our Constitution than this Evil bunch of hypocrites, who call themselves "Progressives". They are a plague on America.
In what ways do you believe that the Constitution has been damaged by this Administration? - lg
By spending this and future generations into impossible debt, now owned by a foreign power, to finance Socialist programs that infringe on those Liberties that the founders intended; and by every power grabbing effort to silence all voices of opposition, to control the internet, the stated intention to set up a civilian armed force that is just as funded as the military, the sneaky efforts to undermine the 2nd ammendment, the blatant effort to obliterate the right of a state to protect it's own sovereignty, to force the will of the Federal Big Government, who refuses to enforce the same law; the complicity of the Federal Govt in allowing ANY foreigner to enter the US illegally, even potential terrorists; the classification of returning US service men and women as potential terrorists, while disenfranchising their votes, the relentless campaign to force God out of the public forum, especially in their generally biased atmosphere that is anti judeo christian and pro muslim and atheistic; the government hostile takeover of GM and systematic destruction of free enterprise economy, the refusal to prosecute or investigate the black panthers, and the further undermining of the Electorate through organized voter fraud through groups like ACORN, and using taxpayer money to fund such groups, and that's just for openers. Stand by for Part 2. . .
This administration - specifically. The debt was at $10 trillion when he took office. Most of that debt was run up by fighting wars not Socialist programs. Clinton dabbled with the 2nd Amendment but Obama hasn't. The civilian police force is not un-constitutional. The Constitution does not address the Internet. Individual states are disenfranchising service people votes - not the fed. If the Constitution could survive Social Security and Medicare and require that all people pay it - I believe the Constitution can survive HCR. Abraham Lincoln blew the hole in state sovreignty.
You hate what the government has become and while it makes it easier to put one face to it - the reality is that the problems are just that the government has changed and adjusted to circumstances. Some things are better and some are worse. Government is a mixed bag. Fortunately, there are a host of checks and balances built into the system and just because someone talks about something does not mean that they can/will or even have a desire to put action to words. -lg
I have listened to poll after poll for the last 18 months telling me that the American people hate Democrats and the President. I have also listened to Conservatives shout about what the polls have to say about that. A poll is a poll where the questions are generally slanted to achieve a goal. The answers are becoming less predictable. The anwers may say that the Americans do not hate the Democrats and the President as much as they used to.
If you didn't believe the polls before - carry on - as they have not changed.
If you did believe them and quoted them like Bible verses - then be quiet and don't question the legitimacy of the polling process.
Not spamming - I'm prophesying - lg
Remember, bush and the gNOp presided over the largest expansion of government in U.S. History.
And bush and the gNOp gave us the single largest tax hike in U.S. history, otherwise known as the Iraq War.
And bush let terrorists attack us on 9/11.
No, America does NOT want the teabagged folks or the gNOp running America. They ONLY look backwards.
"And bush let terrorists attack us on 9/11."
After all these years I still find statements like these stunning if not ignorant and a prime example of the weak minded who flock to the left.
Mick, while it's ridiculous to suggest Bush "let" 9/11 happen, it's also ridiculous to let him and his administration off the hook for not listening when Richard Clarke and others - including outgoing Clinton folks - were attempting to get their attention about the al Qaeda threat.
We can all agree that a whole host of mistakes, many of which pre-date the Bush Administration, led to the events of that terrible day. I guess our challenge now is not forgetting those painful lessons and finding away to keep our national security priorities in order while maintaining our open society, a tall order no matter who is President or what party they are in.
Keep your g@d d@mned government hands off my medicare, you g@d d@mned Democrats!!! G@d d@mn it!!
Socialist pig.
Why is it repugnicans and teabagged folks want to piss on the Constitution? I mean, I understand the lack of education, the ignorance, and the childish frustration, but the lack of common sense and logic--and lack of facts--only proves to the world we're right about the utter failure they'd be in leadership positions.
Epic fail.
If George W. Bush had doubled the national debt, which had taken more
than two centuries to accumulate, in one year, would you have
approved?
If George W. Bush had then proposed to double the debt again within 10
years, would you have approved?
If George W. Bush had criticized a state law that he admitted he never
even read, would you think that he is just an ignorant hot head?
If George W. Bush joined the country of Mexico and sued a state in
the United States to force that state to continue to allow illegal
immigration, would you question his patriotism and wonder who's side
he was on?
If George W. Bush had put 87000 workers out of work by arbitrarily
placing a moratorium on offshore oil drilling on companies that have
one of the best safety records of any industry because one company had
an accident would you have agreed?
If George W. Bush had used a forged document as the basis of the
moratorium that would render 87000 American workers unemployed would
you support him?
If George W. Bush had been the first President to need a TelePrompTer
installed to be able to get through a press conference, would you have
laughed and said this is more proof of how inept he is on his own and
is really controlled by smarter men behind the scenes?
If George W. Bush had spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to take
Laura Bush to a play in NYC, would you have approved?
If George W. Bush had reduced your retirement plan's holdings of GM
stock by 90% and given the unions a majority stake in GM, would you
have approved?
If George W. Bush had made a joke at the expense of
the Special Olympics, would you have approved?
If George W. Bush had given Gordon Brown a set of inexpensive and
incorrectly formatted DVDs, when Gordon Brown had given him a thoughtful
and historically significant gift, would you have approved?
If George W. Bush had given the Queen of England an iPod containing
videos of his speeches, would you have thought this embarrassingly
narcissistic and tacky?
If George W. Bush had bowed to the King of Saudi Arabia, would you have approved?
If George W. Bush had visited Austria and made reference to the nonexistent "Austrian language,"
would you have brushed it off as a minor slip?
If George W. Bush had filled his cabinet and circle of advisers with people who cannot seem
to keep current in their income taxes, would you have approved?
If George W. Bush had stated that there were 57 states in theUnited
States, would you have said that he is clueless.
If George W. Bush would have flown all the way to Denmark to make a
five minute speech about how the Olympics would benefit him walking
out his front door in Texas , would you have thought he was a self
important, conceited, egotistical jerk.
If George W. Bush had been so Spanish illiterate as to refer to "Cinco de Cuatro" in front of the
Mexican ambassador when it was the 5th of May (Cinco de Mayo), and
continued to flub it when he tried again, would you have winced in
embarrassment?
If George W. Bush had misspelled the word "advice" would you have
hammered him for it for years like Dan Quayle and potatoes as proof of
what a dunce he is?
If George W. Bush had burned 9,000 gallons of jet fuel to go plant a
single tree on Earth Day, would you have concluded he's a hypocrite?
If George W. Bush's administration had okayed Air Force One flying low over millions
of people followed by a jet fighter in downtown Manhattan causing widespread panic,
would you have wondered whether they actually get what happened on 9-11?
If George W. Bush had failed to send relief aid to flood victims
throughout the Midwest with more people killed or made homeless than
in New Orleans, would you want it made into a major ongoing
political issue with claims of racism and incompetence?
If George W. Bush had created the position of 32 Czars who report
directly to him, bypassing the House and Senate on much of what is
happening in America, would you have approved.
If George W. Bush had ordered the firing of the CEO of a major
corporation, even though he had no constitutional authority to do so,
would you have approved?
So, tell me again, what is it about Obama that makes him so brilliant
and impressive? Can't think of anything? Don't worry. He's done all
this in 15 months -- so you'll have two years and nine months to come
up with an answer.
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