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Michael Carter-Williams to win rookie of the year

Michael Carter-Williams (right) against the Rockets' Patrick Beverly
Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Philadelphia 76ers point guard Michael Carter-Williams is going to win the NBA's Rookie of the Year award, according to sources with insight on the voting process. Carter-Williams had a solid rookie campaign, averaging 16.7 points per game, 6.3 assists per game, 6.2 rebounds per game, 1.9 steals per game, and an atrocious 3.5 turnovers per game on 40.5% shooting and 26.4% shooting from deep. Solid standard numbers, but his advanced stats tell us that Carter-Williams had a much weaker campaign than first advertised.

Carter-Williams had a .026 Win Shares per 48 minutes, a number well below the league average of .100. Carter-Williams was barely worth 1.3 total Win Shares on the year, amassing 2.1 Defensive Win Shares largely thanks to his superb steal numbers, however, his offense was atrocious, as he was worth -0.8 Offensive Win Shares, hurting his team more often than not with his extremely inefficient offensive display. Carter-Williams' Offensive Rating, which is an estimate of points scored per 100 possessions, was a terrible 96, and his Defensive Rating, which is an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions, was also not good at 108. Carter-Williams was barely an offensive threat, while gambling on defense and allowing dribble penetration as a result. Sure, he had his moments, like his near triple-double against the Miami Heat in his debut, but Carter-Williams was hardly a good player.

Carter-Williams did put up the total numbers to help him win the award. Williams is 1 of 3 players in NBA history to average at least 16 points, 6 assists and 6 rebounds per game during their rookie seasons. The other two are Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson. Carter-Williams does have the tools to become a good player, and efficiency is a major part of it.

Luckily for him, this draft class was one of the weakest draft classes in recent memory, with nobody other than Victor Oladipo even challenging for the rookie of the year award. It helps when the 1st overall pick Anthony Bennett was one of the worst players in NBA history last season, even worse than other 1st pick busts like Michael Olowakandi and Kwame Brown. Hopefully, next year's draft produces a better class of players.