The upset in this battle of unbeatens, being staged at junior welterweight (a catchweight of 152 pounds) with each putting world title belts up for grabs, would probably require a knockout. Alvarez is quicker and more sophisticated than some casual boxing fans realize, but it’s nearly impossible to picture him or anyone else outpointing Mayweather.
Alvarez (42-0-1, 30 knockouts) has a puncher’s chance, although if you’re looking for a knockout pick, go with Lucas Matthysse (34-2, 32 knockouts) over the somewhat overrated champion Danny Garcia (26-0, 16 knockouts) in the junior welterweight sub-main event.
It’s far more likely that Mayweather (44-0, 26 knockouts) will outpoint Alvarez easily, as he outpointed Robert Guerrero last May and has outscored all of his opponents. He is arguably the greatest defensive fighter of all time.
And if there is a knockout or stoppage, it’s more likely that Alvarez will be the victim.
Alvarez proved in his one-sided 2012 victory over Shane Mosley, who staggered Mayweather in an otherwise equally one-sided bout in 2010, that he can outbox a master boxer when he holds physical advantages in youth and size.
But Mosley was washed up by the time he faced Alvarez -- and Mayweather, for that matter.
Mayweather is getting old (36) and will soon be ripe for the picking. But he’s not there yet. He will outpoint Alvarez by landing lead rights and picking his spots in a bout that won’t be that much different than the Guerrero bout. He probably will cut him badly and may well beat him badly.