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May 2014 outlook issued

Forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
Forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society

The latest observations show that sea surface temperatures continue to warm across the waters of the Pacific Ocean. Even with this warming the neutral conditions should continue into May.

Weekly sea surface temperature anomaly 6-12 April
NOAA/ESRL/PSD

Significant changes in the weather pattern are likely later this year with the development of El Niño conditions. In their latest discussion, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says Over the last few months, considerable changes have occurred across the equatorial pacific ocean, both in the atmosphere and in the ocean that have increased probabilities for the development of El Niño later in 2014.”

The Climate Prediction Center forecast for the Great Lakes is for the cooler than average temperatures to continue into May. Beyond that there are no clear climate signals relating to temperature for the May – July time frame, so the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast is for an equal chance of above, below, and near normal conditions. The precipitation forecast is just as murky. At this point there are no clear climate signals relating to precipitation for the month of May or for the longer range of May – July so the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast is for an equal chance of above, below, and near normal precipitation.

The slideshow on the top of the page has the official forecast maps.