On November 29th, the world's leading market forecaster Intrade tweeted out a warning that the chances of the Euro surviving through the end of 2012 are no more than a 50/50 coin flip.
For those who opt for the latter, they should head over to Intrade where the contract pricing the possibility of "Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" is now trading at perfectly even odds or 50%. In other words, the "upside benefit" of the EFSF, the ECB, the IMF and ultimately the Fed have been reduced to coin toss odds. - Zerohedge
The power of Intrade to predict future economic events is well documented, and validated by many leading economists, as well as used by media outlets across the globe.
Their mission is to provide investors with the best prediction market platform and related services bar none. At the heart of Intrade is a marketplace for the exchange of predictions on uncertain future events often called "prediction markets" or "event markets". When you make a prediction it facilitates the aggregation of crowd wisdom into predictive probabilities.
Predictive information generated by the Intrade community has been used by CNBC, CNN, FOX, WSJ, FT, New York Times, over 50 major universities and graduate schools in the US, the ECB, Cato, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, presidential candidates and innumerable Wall Street firms.
As the liquidty crisis in Europe continues to escalate, and recent activity of the Euro falls into a danger zone, many businesses and sovereign nations who trade with, or rely upon the Euro have been given ample warning by Intrade to facilitate measures that point to a different direction in their participation in the Euro Zone.
A major market prediction was made today by Intrade, and the consequences could be devastating to the efforts of the ECB to resolve the debt crisis which is overtaking the Euro Zone. By giving the currency only a 50/50 chance of survival by the end of 2012 means that the problems underlying the crisis are much worse than the central bankers or EU authorities are letting on to the markets.
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