High pressure was centered over central Quebec province in Canada this morning, and will move further north and east today. Thus, its influence on our weather will slowly be supplanted by two low pressure systems that run the risk of providing a significant snowfall to the region during the period from Friday morning to Saturday morning. Here are the players in this scenario, and how it is forecast to play out at this point in time…
- Two low pressure systems, one currently over the state of Iowa, and the other over the Louisiana Gulf Coast, near New Orleans, are forecast to track toward the eastern seaboard during the day today.
- These two systems are forecast to merge, or phase, into one major storm about 100 miles off of the Delmarva Peninsula during the day on Friday. The combined system is then forecast to strengthen rapidly as it moves to just east of Cape Cod by Saturday morning, and then into the Gulf of Maine and the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday evening.
- Moisture, in plentiful supply, will be transported northward, from both the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture will be sent north and northwestward into the Capital Region and vicinity beginning tomorrow morning.
Snow is expected to begin during the pre-dawn hours on Friday, and be light in intensity initially, as the warm front from the inland low pressure system will be the main focus of precipitation. However, by mid to late morning, as interplay occurs between the two low pressure systems, precipitation should become steadier and heavier. Precipitation is expected to continue through Friday evening, before slowly tapering to snow showers and flurries by Saturday morning.
High pressure will build back into the region late Saturday and into Sunday. Unlike previous high pressure systems, which have been associated with cold air due to tracking north of the region, this high pressure area is expected to track south and east of the region to start the new work week. Thus, Mother Nature may give the Capital Region some help in terms of natural snow removal come early next week.
Another system approaches the region Monday and into Tuesday of next week, however, indications are that this storm may be associated with enough warmer air that a mix of snow and/or rain will be possible with it. Furthermore, as we look into the middle portions of next week, a moderation in temperatures is expected, and near to slightly above normal temperatures may be realized along with a reprieve from the stormy weather.
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
**National Weather Service WINTER STORM WATCH in effect Friday Morning through late Friday Night**
Today: Increasing, thickening, and lowering clouds. High 20-25. Light north winds.
Tonight: Overcast with light snow developing after midnight. Low 15-20. Light northeast winds. Chance of snow is 60 percent. Snow accumulations of a dusting to an inch possible by dawn.
Friday: Snow likely. Snow may be heavy at times. High in the upper 20’s. East-northeast winds 5-15 MPH. Chance of snow is 100 percent. Snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible by evening.
Friday Night: Snow, heavy at times during the evening, becoming light in intensity after midnight. Low near 20. Northerly winds 5-15 MPH. Chance of snow is 90 percent. Additional accumulations of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Saturday: Light snow tapering to snow showers and flurries during the morning. Intervals of clouds and sunshine for the afternoon. High in the mid 20’s. Northwest winds 5-15 MPH. Chance of snow in the morning is 40 percent. Additional accumulations of an inch or two of snow possible.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High near 25 and low near 15.
Monday: A 50 percent chance of rain and/or snow. High near 35 and low near 25.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of rain showers. High near 40 and low near 30.