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Looking at three decades of San Francisco real estate cycles

What cycles have we discovered?
What cycles have we discovered?
Courtesy Paragon Real Estate

Perspective comes with time. In this spirit, Paragon offers a look at the last 30 years of San Francisco Bay Area real estate boom and bust cycles.

Of course, the future will vary in certain ways. But we can learn from looking at the past, whose causes, effects and trend lines are often very similar to what we will experience in the coming years.

Over the past 30 years, we’ve seen a pattern: up, down, flat, repeat. On a consistent basis, the period between a recovery beginning and a bubble popping has lasted about 6 years. We are currently about 2 years into the current recovery; periods of market recession and doldrums after a bubble pops typically last 4 to 5 years.

It’s also not unusual for a big surge in values to be seen in the first few years after the beginning of a recovery. One could argue that we’re seeing this today as well, and will likely see it again in the future.

Dreaming of San Francisco? Cece Blase offers local advice to San Francisco buyers, sellers and owners– and feeds the dreams of those who wish they could live in Tony Bennett’s ‘City by the Bay.’ Call 415-577-0809 or email cblase@paragon-re.com. www.ceceblase.com