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Looking at seasonality in the SF market

While there are other factors at stake, this one is worth a look.
While there are other factors at stake, this one is worth a look.
Courtesy Paragon Real Estate

A new group of charts produced by Paragon Real Estate Group sheds light on the affects of seasonality and how it typically affects inventory levels, buyer demand and median home prices. That said, it’s not the only factor that affects market trends and conditions – you also need to look at the general economy, new construction coming on the market, sudden interest-rate changes, stock market IPOs and political events, among other factors. In addition, new listings and new sales take place all the time, adding another factor to the mix.

That said, seasonality is definitely something to consider when taking stock of the real estate market in San Francisco. There is a typical ebb and flow to this activity, which is explored in Paragon’s report.

As seen in one of the report’s charts, seasonality generally affects the higher-price end of the market more than the general market. Typically, this translates to a rise in median sales price during the peak spring and autumn selling periods, and a lowering in the slower periods of summer and mid-winter. We’ve plotted changes up and down in sales based on the sales of January 2013 equaling a baseline of 100, which is a very approximate illustration due to the other factors that affect the anlysis. However, we still believe it’s an accurate representation of market realities.

Another chart ilustrates both the rapidly appreciating real estate market since 2012 as well as the shorter-term ups and downs that come from seasonality in terms of median home prices. It’s important to keep in mind that whether the market is appreciating or depreciating, other factors are usually at play – and what means the most are longer-term trends in prices, rather than short-term fluctuations.

Dreaming of San Francisco? Cece Blase offers local advice to San Francisco buyers, sellers and owners– and feeds the dreams of those who wish they could live in Tony Bennett’s ‘City by the Bay.’ Call 415-577-0809 or email cblase@paragon-re.com. www.ceceblase.com