The thing with it being a difficult year, a critic gets to hedge his bets when he makes his annual predictions. There a number of factors that make this year difficult—it’s widely believed within the industry that changes to the balloting deadlines and procedures affected the nominations, for one thing. And that seems to have led to a few oddities. We’ll get to those.
Your Capital District Movies Examiner’s predictions for the winners this year are as follows, starting with some of the lesser awards:
In recent years, Best Song winners have been all over the map, with last year’s going to “Man or Muppet,” from “The Muppets,” and “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3” the year before. “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart” and “Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire” are other recent winners. This year’s nominees are:
“Before My Time,” from “Chasing Ice;”
“Everybody Needs a Best Friend” from “Ted;”
“Pi’s Lullaby” from “Life of Pi;”
“Skyfall” from “Skyfall;” and
“Suddenly” from “Les Misérables.”
Although the James Bond movies have almost track no record with the Academy Awards®, the fact that “Skyfall” is the best-reviewed 007 movie in recent memory and the title track is co-written and sung by the wildly popular Adele, may swing the tide a little. Look for “Skyfall” to win.
The Best Score nominees are:
“Anna Karenina;”
“Argo;”
“Life of Pi;”
“Lincoln;” and
“Skyfall.”
John Williams has scored every Steven Spielberg movie since “Jaws,” and has won 5 Oscars, including 3 for Spielberg movies (“Jaws,” “E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial” and “Schindler’s List”). He is nominated virtually year for something. Williams has not won an Oscar® since his 1994 win for “Schindler’s List” though, and “Lincoln” is a juggernaut with both audiences and critics. Look for Williams to pick up his 6th statuette.
Sound Editing and Sound Mixing are two separate and distinct categories that tend to get treated together. They probably shouldn’t be. While related, the two categories are separate and distinct. Sound editing used to be referred to as sound effects, and deals more with the creation of sound. Sound mixing is literally the mixing of different sound sources, whether sound effects, dialogue or music, into the film's soundtrack.
The nominees for Sound Editing are:
“Argo;”
“Django Unchained;”
“Life of Pi;”
“Lincoln:” and
“Skyfall.”
It’s tempting to assume that “Skyfall” will sweep the technical categories, but I think the Academy’s longstanding and obvious disdain of genre films is going to continue to hamper it, despite the fact that this is a very well-regarded movie. Look for “Argo,” which is the most powerful challenger “Lincoln” has this year, to take this category. The same rationale applies to Sound Mixing, in which the same films are nominated, with the exception of the very popular “Les Misérables” replacing “Django Unchained.” This will be another win for Ben Affleck’s superb “Argo.”
Film editing features a slate of powerhouse movies, all of which have multiple nominations:
“Argo;”
“Life of Pi;”
“Lincoln;”
“Silver Linings Playbook;” and
“Zero Dark Thirty.”
Bear in mind that the movies in this category are directed by an unbelievably prestigious group of filmmakers, including previous Oscar-winners Steven Spielberg, Ang Lee and Kathryn Bigelow. Ben Affleck inexplicably didn’t get a nomination for Best Director for “Argo,” although he’s already won the Directors Guild Award. A lot of people think this is the best movie of the year, and I’m expecting it get some awards almost as consolation prizes. “Argo’s” general momentum will carry it here as well.
Costume Design generally goes to the period movie with the prettiest costumes. That tends to favor the Edwardian and Victorian eras. This year the competition is unusually stiff. The nominees are all period movies and/or fantasies, and they’re all heavy hitters. The nominees are: “Anna Karenina;” “Les Misérables;” “Lincoln;” and the two Snow White movies, “Mirror Mirror” and “Snow White and the Huntsman.”
Normally “Anna Karenina” would have the edge here, but I’m going with “Les Misérables,” which has turned into a bigger hit than anyone originally predicted. Academy members want to see this movie get some Oscar® gold.
Much the same reasoning will apply to the Production Design category, in which “Les Misérables” will win over “Anna Karenina,” “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey,” “Life of Pi” and “Lincoln.”
The Best Cinematography nominees are an odd and mixed bunch this year. Amazingly, Wes Anderson’s “Moonrise Kingdom,” an incredibly gorgeously photographed film, isn’t nominated, nor is Sir Peter Jackson’s “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey,” nor is Ben Affleck’s astounding “Argo,” in which the cinematography is a deliberate element of the storytelling. The movies that are nominated are:
“Anna Karenina;”
“Django Unchained;”
“Life of Pi;”
“Lincoln” and
“Skyfall.”
I think this is one category “Skyfall” may actually win, although I seem to be out on a limb by myself in the opinion that it has rather lackluster photography for a James Bond movie.
It was a very competitive year in the special effects arena, as evidenced not only by the nominees in the Visual Effects category, but by the movies who weren’t nominated. I think “Marvel’s The Avengers” will be rewarded here for its overall success, edging out not only “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey,” “Life of Pi,” “Prometheus” and “Snow White and the Huntsman,” but a host of other visual effects showpieces, including “The Dark Knight Rises,” “The Amazing Spider-Man” and “John Carter,” which weren’t nominated.
In fact “The Hobbit’s” one win this year is likely to be in the Makeup and Hairstyling category, where I believe it will beat out both “Hitchcock” and “Les Misérables.”
Animated Short Film is one of those categories that generally send the TV audience to the fridge. However, it’s notable this year, because “Maggie Simpson in ‘The Longest Daycare’” is a genuinely entertaining short that got some attention, if only because it was so much better than “Ice Age: Continental Drift,” which it accompanied. The other nominees, which won’t win, are “Adam and Dog,” “Fresh Guacamole,” “Head Over Heels” and “Paperman.”
The screenplay categories this year are also bloodbaths. All these movies are genuinely well-written. How often can you say that? The nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay are:
“Argo;”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild;”
“Life of Pi;”
“Lincoln;” and
“Silver Linings Playbook.”
To be clear, any of these could win. “Lincoln,” written by playwright Tony Kushner based in part on the non-fiction book by presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin, will win.
Best Original Screenplay is not a much easier category. The nominees are:
“Amour;”
“Django Unchained;”
“Flight;”
“Moonrise Kingdom;” and
“Zero Dark Thirty.”
Wes Anderson’s delightful “Moonrise Kingdom” was easily one of the best movies of the year, and this is its only nomination. That it wasn’t nominated for Best Cinematography absolutely floors me. It won’t win this award, which will probably go to Mark Boal for “Zero Dark Thirty.” Drama generally trumps comedy, and even though Boal won recently for “The Hurt Locker,” it’s hard to see how he can lose here, especially since “Zero Dark Thirty” is a much better film.
Best Foreign Language Film shouldn’t be too much of a stretch. Almost anything that lifts a foreign language film’s prominence with Academy voters gives it the edge, and the director of the Austrian entry, “Amour,” Michael Haneke, is up for Best Director. That should give “Amour” all the advantage it needs in a field that includes Norway’s “Kon-Tiki,” Chile’s “No,” Denmark’s “A Royal Affair” and Canada’s “War Witch.”
All the nominees for Best Animated Feature are generally good movies that had appeal for adults as well as children. I think “ParaNorman” is the rare movie that can take on Disney and Pixar. Its excellent, 3D stop motion helps it stand out from the crowd, including its competitors, Tim Burton’s “Frankenweenie” and “The Pirates! Band of Misfits,” which never seemed to find their audiences. “Brave, the most Disney-fied Pixar movie to date, was not well liked by hardcore Pixar fans, and “Wreck-it-Ralph” wasn’t well-appreciated by younger audiences who may not have gotten all the vintage arcade video game jokes.
The Best Supporting Actress category is crowded with talent. This is one of the few categories this year though, where one can rely on a time-tested barometer. If an actor or actress wins both the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild Award for the same performance, they’re close to a shoo-in. This year that’s Anne Hathaway, nominated for a brief but intense role as Fantine in “Les Misérables.” She’s an easy pick therefore, edging out Amy Adams in “The Master,” Sally Field, outstanding in “Lincoln,” Helen Hunt in “The Sessions” and Jacki Weaver in “Silver Linings Playbook.”
Best Supporting Actor is more complicated this year. Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe for his charismatic performance in Quentin Tarantino’s controversial but wildly entertaining “Django Unchained.” Tommy Lee Jones won the Screen Actors Guild Award for his scene-stealing work in “Lincoln.” I think “Lincoln” has the momentum here, and Jones is likely to take the Oscar, beating Waltz as well as Alan Arkin for “Argo,” Robert De Niro for “Silver Linings Playbook” and Philip Seymour Hoffman for “The Master.”
The race for Best Actress is also literally strewn with talent. Jennifer Lawrence, a major star on the rise if there ever was one, is on her 2nd Academy Award nomination at the age of 22. She also won both the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild Award for “Silver Linings Playbook,” which makes her pretty much a lock for the Oscar®. She will win over Jessica Chastain’s nuanced and powerful performance in “Zero Dark Thirty,” Naomi Watts in the much-overlooked “The Impossible,” as well as the oldest acting nominee ever, Emmanuelle Riva for “Amour,” and the youngest, Quvenzhané Wallis for “Beasts of the Southern Wild.”
The easiest Oscar® to predict this year, without doubt, is Daniel Day-Lewis’ virtually certain win for “Lincoln.” Aside from the fact that he’s won both the Golden Globe and the SAG, this is the performance everyone’s been talking about for months. The actors who needn’t bother wasting time on those troublesome acceptance speeches are Bradley Cooper for “Silver Linings Playbook,” Hugh Jackman for “Les Misérables,” Joaquin Phoenix for “The Master” and Denzel Washington for “Flight.”
That brings us to Best Director, a complete mess this year. As I’ve noted repeatedly, generally the Directors Guild Award and the Oscar® for Best Director go hand in hand. Ben Affleck won the DGA for “Argo,” but isn’t nominated for the Oscar®. In fact, the only directors who were nominated for both awards this year were Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee, both of whom have previous wins in both categories. Ironically, they’re also two of the six exceptions where there was a split between the awards. Michael Haneke is nominated for “Amour,” a foreign movie which hasn’t gotten the press “The Artist” managed, and isn’t likely to win. Benh Zeitlin, whose astounding work in “Beasts of the Southern Wild” has gotten him a lot of well-deserved attention, is also making his feature directorial debut. David O. Russell, director of “Silver Linings Playbook,” has a relatively short résumé, but if there was a dark horse here, he’d be it. But I think it’s going to be Spielberg, who with “Lincoln” has his most critically lauded film in years.
Finally, Best Picture itself is more of a challenge than in most years. The nominees (and they didn’t nominate a whole slate of 10, which they can under the new rules) are:
“Argo;”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild;”
“Django Unchained;”
“Les Misérables;”
“Life of Pi;”
“Lincoln;”
“Silver Linings Playbook” and
“Zero Dark Thirty.”
Generally, Best Picture and Best Director go together. And generally, you can discount nominees who aren’t also nominated for Best Director. This year, that would be “Argo,” “Django Unchained,” “Les Misérables” and “Zero Dark Thirty.” However, there is a second string approach to Best Picture, the Producers Guild Award, which is also a good Best Picture barometer, and this year that went to “Argo.” I think Ben Affleck, for whatever reason, was disadvantaged by the new voting procedures and deadlines. There seems to be a groundswell of support for “Argo,” which is a taut, suspenseful film rooted in a painful episode of American history but also makes us feel good about ourselves. Look for “Argo” to win Best Picture.
You can also expect to be up past your bedtime, as honorary awards, tributes and production numbers swell the running time of the broadcast to easily four hours. Supposedly we can look forward to a James Bond tribute (I’ll believe the usually irascible Sean Connery is really coming when I see him on the stage) and a salute to the Hollywood musical. This year’s human sacrifice, I’m sorry, host, is Seth MacFarlane.
The Oscars can be seen locally on ABC affiliate WTEN, channel 10. Red carpet coverage starts at 7:00 PM, the awards broadcast begins at 8:00.
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